Re: pca step 2 question
 

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It's a push, but Jesus Christ, it's NOT a freeroll.

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It's as close as you can get.

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You have about $67-68 in equity prior to the hand and if you lose, it drops to about $45. If you have to retry Step 2, you don't get to start with three players left and 5380 chips. It's not a freeroll.

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Well, thanks for your pedantry. It doesn't help any but god forbid we should get away with using the word "freeroll" loosely.

The bottom line is, this is a rock-solid push, with much less to lose than you usually have in an STT. You can't even go broke.

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You're never losing equity pushing here unless button's the biggest nit ever, but you're almost never increasing equity more than 1.0%.

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Does that mean do it or fold? I couldn't really figure out from your post whether you agree it's a good push or whether you think increasing your equity 1% is just not worth bothering with.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

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It was really the other people who were saying it was a freeroll that I was getting on FWIW. In all seriousness, though, otherwise decent players make equity mistakes bigger than 1.0% all the time, especially on the bubble in payout formats they're not used to, so a fold here would not be completely stupid as some were saying, just a small mistake.

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How many mistakes do you think you can make?

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Reads are key here. If the button's only opening 15% here, shoving 99 starts getting problematic. Are we saying no one's ever this tight?

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We are beating 15%.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

Fantastic cherry-picking the post. I thought I was pretty clear. A read clearly helps here. If button is tight, a push is not prudent. If opponent raises 15% and calls all shoves, you get a 0.01% equity boost. If he raises 15% and calls 12%, you lose equity by pushing. If button raises 40% and just calls 8% of pushes, your equity boost is 1.05%. Since OP didn't give a read, I don't know how you're supposed to be so rock-solid in your evaluation. Feel free to run the numbers...I actually did.

With no read, sure, a push is MOST LIKELY RIGHT, just like I said above. But, definitely not "OMG, your friend's a moron for considering a fold!" right.

And, yeah, your's and others' definition of a freeroll is totally wrong. Sorry if it came off pedantic.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

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Fantastic cherry-picking the post. I thought I was pretty clear. A read clearly helps here. If button is tight, a push is not prudent. If opponent raises 15% and calls all shoves

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Plz.

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you get a 0.01% equity boost. If he raises 15% and calls 12%, you lose equity by pushing.

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If I push and the building falls on my head, I die.

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If button raises 40% and just calls 8% of pushes, your equity boost is 1.05%.

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Poooooooooosh.

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Since OP didn't give a read, I don't know how you're supposed to be so rock-solid in your evaluation.

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I don't assume unknowns are Tighty McTight.

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Feel free to run the numbers...I actually did.

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Try running some that are even a little bit realistic.

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With no read, sure, a push is MOST LIKELY RIGHT, just like I said above. But, definitely not "OMG, your friend's a moron for considering a fold!" right.

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I disagree. You can't bust out, but recover some of your equity if you lose all your chips. You have a hand that beats his range. You also have him covered. You can only lose equity to a very very tight range. Easy call.

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And, yeah, your's and others' definition of a freeroll is totally wrong. Sorry if it came off pedantic.

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Whatever.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

LOL at assuming unknown with a player he's played an hour plus with. I gave both sides of the argument with math. I didn't commit to either. His friend isn't stupid. What part of this do you disagree with?

And, again, your definition of a freeroll is horrible. Please attempt to justify it.

Also, nice blog.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

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bump for vindication

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Let me remind you that you lost that hand and soon after busted out in third. I'm sure if everyone knew how you play and the situation as closely as I do, they would advocate folding there (or at least just calling and taking a flop) rather than putting yourself in a position to lose, which you did. IMO, the 'freeroll' play would have been folding and using my big stack to get me into first or second place, not gambling and going out third.

I'm sorry, but if I'm chip leader and it's down to three players and first and second get the same prize, I feel that I play good enough to fold here and find a better spot later, preferably not involving me as the two other remaining players tangle for what's left of their stacks.

Remember, we're talking about a satellite tournament here where for our purposes, third gets nothing because jme1222 has gotten so many thirds in these PCA tournaments that he spends more time playing step 2 than actually making some money playing his regular games.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

This is why you're a newbie

Re: pca step 2 question
 

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This is why you're a newbie

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Well, if an experienced player's response to playing against a newbie is to gamble and risk not getting a prize at all in favor of style points, then yes, I am a newbie.

Can someone come up with a serious response about why it makes sense to gamble your shot at getting a prize in a spot where you're not being forced to gamble?

Re: pca step 2 question
 

taking a massively +ev opportunity to increase our stack/end the tournament is not really "gambling"

god mike, this is awful

you are better off at p5's

Re: pca step 2 question
 

You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.