50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

Villain running at 28/4 and his postflop aggression by street is 2.5/1.5/9 over about 100 hands. Obviously flop is golden but am I value betting this river? If so, how much?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $50.15
UTG: $66
Hero (CO): $49.35
BTN: $86.70
SB: $54.85

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($10.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB calls $7.50

River: ($26.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

When they donk like this, I usually treat it as a check at make it a pot sized bet to go. So I'd raise the flop to at least $4.5 and the turn I'd make it about $12 to go b/c it's quite possible he hit the straight or has at least two pair. And yes, the river is a clear value bet. I'd make it at least $20.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

With those AF figures, it looks like he is the type of player to chase all draws and fold the river.
I might check just out of curiosity to see what he has (the minbet donks are so weird), but probably value bet something like $12, since if he flushed, it's a backdoor that got there and I'd more expect 2 diamonds in his hand.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

When he checks, it's pretty unlikely he has us beat, and there's plenty of 2-pair combos he can call us with. Bet like 15 and he'll call a bunch of times.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

Agreed. This is a value bet situation. Unfortunately, he likely busted out on his draw. The minbets were probably some pathetic attempt at a blocking bet. I'd shoot at least 15 at this pot and hope for a call.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

And just to add:

If he shoves, we fold.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

Thac pretty much nailed it on the head.

Re: 50NL - Flopped nuts, value bet this river though?
 

Ok good to know I was in the right.
I bet $14 and he insta minraised me, and I called like a donk. In hindsight, obviously a terrible call but I was so confused and he showed A10hh for the nut flush