What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Anyone reading this has seen countless threads from "[well known pro] busto?" to one of D Skansky's dozens of recent threads, having to to with how many big name pros are either close to broke or in debt. It's common knowledge at this point that a considerably larger # of big name pros are worth much less than one might first guess, especially considering the stakes they play on a seemingly regular basis.

For the most part (Jamie Gold excluded), these are not stupid people. They haven't built the fame, fortune and success they now hold by practicing piss poor bankroll management or tilting off half their roll in a night etc., so what is it? What causes SO many of these elite players to lose SO much of their net worth or even fall into debt?


IMO, Any player who has the $ to play at the stakes where the general public would know them as a big name poker player, and goes broke, is a degenerate with a high stakes gambling problem. HSNL obviously requires a significantly larger BR (let alone HSPLO) and I have a feeling the EGO that keeps so many players from being able to move down when they should is what separates the real professionals from the rest, more than any other factor. Now obviously this range of 'busto or worse' players contains some of the best strategical poker minds in the world. What I'm hoping for from this thread is some insight from HSNL players who know first hand what it is that causes players like B Green, D Brunson, C Reese, and even HS online players like SBrugby etc. to sustain a HS livestyle (B roll AND B acct) while what COULD be their peers, seem get caught up in a downward spiral.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

pit games, over priced strippers, feeling like they have to impress people by throwing money around on useless things, loaning losing players money, weren't that good to begin with

instead of investing in other things

100k could buy one you one or two nights of buying out the bar and being "that guy"

or invested correctly could provide you a decent sum of money for the future

a lot of the newer guys rather would be the cool guy throwing money around than smart about it

think it's a side effect of not really grinding. a lot of the older players had a slow grind to the top, now with so much money out there you can get rich quick and as a result you tend to not respect it as much IMO

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

overconfidence and tilt

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

What about Nikki Jedlicka specifically? I think a number of 2p2ers have a lot of respect for his game, and I KNOW Phil Ivey does. From what I've read it was a $1.1m downswing (rumored to be since he signed with FTP) that busted his online BR and has him saying he isn't planning on redepositing anytime soon. Was he just playing too high the whole time (during his $2m+ upswing AND $1m downswing? What is it with so many HS players (DB comes to mind) living the high life one day, and seemingly crippled the next?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

how about; poker is nearly impossible to beat long term? its gambling, brosephs. stu unger was a savant, he could beat the game. phil ivey, chip reese, etc, im awed by their ability and their stamina and their discipline but i guarantee you that they go broke just as fast as anyone else if the rivers dont go there way enough times.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

The reason is they are neither top nor pro.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Robert Varkonyi

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about Nikki Jedlicka specifically? I think a number of 2p2ers have a lot of respect for his game, and I KNOW Phil Ivey does. From what I've read it was a $1.1m downswing (rumored to be since he signed with FTP) that busted his online BR and has him saying he isn't planning on redepositing anytime soon. Was he just playing too high the whole time (during his $2m+ upswing AND $1m downswing? What is it with so many HS players (DB comes to mind) living the high life one day, and seemingly crippled the next?

[/ QUOTE ]

~27 BI downsizing will happen when you play the best and multi table in variance happy Omaha.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Balloon payments on adjustable rate mortgages.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Boris Becker

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about Nikki Jedlicka specifically?

[/ QUOTE ]

He said that he has tilt issues. Someone posted a link earlier and he said that even when he was winning, he would still tilt through boredom.

As for the other pros...it's all very good being "one of the best in the world", but when you're constantly in games with the few players who are better... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

full tilt- oh look this kai buxxe has played high stakes for a couple of weeks, lets sign him up.

It's hardly like he's had good results for a couple of years i.e aba, PA, Durrr

I guess a lot of poker players lose sight of the real value of money and just piss it away thinking they can win it back

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
how about; poker is nearly impossible to beat long term? its gambling, brosephs. stu unger was a savant, he could beat the game. phil ivey, chip reese, etc, im awed by their ability and their stamina and their discipline but i guarantee you that they go broke just as fast as anyone else if the rivers dont go there way enough times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I should really write this as some sort of a seperate post cause its so genius but i guess i'll write it here first as my trial run sort of deal.

The short of it is that poker is a game of investing money or gambling depending on how you play. But if we assume that we are playing under the pretense to invest our money intellegently than the same principles of investing in the stock market apply, however the stock market trades at a much larger level. The reason the tops pro's are broke is because they have reached the poker ceiling, its similar to the investment ceiling which goes by some name that i don't know. if you talk to really good investment bankers, the top ones, they will tell that they can basically make the same average returns year after year with work but not to to much...however, when their portfolio reaches around 500 million dollars then it becomes much more difficult to keep there high return rate. So i would propose that this is what has occured to the current breed of poker players. Because the poker economy is much small than the us stock market the ceiling is much lower.
So i would conclude that investing your money with poker it a good choice but only until say your reach 3 or so million to give an arbitary number. After that point it becomes much better to invest your money in a the stock market.

that'll be 2 cents

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Warrant that is a good insight. In my business, I can get returns from 400% to .0001% on my money. The problem is finding more opportunities towards the 400% end of the scale. At times I find myself just sitting on money because the work required to get the 20% return is just not worth it. Seems stupid but it is true.

There is a sweetspot for ROI for each player, but I think real poker players probably can't live with that so they tend to push themselves to higher levels and higher stakes. Some swim, some sink. Some sink, sink, sink and eventually swim. My guess is very few players manage to play at their optimum level for extended periods of times. Mostly because they might be a grind, and less challenging than taking on other games, moving up, taking a shot and the rest.

So while Bankroll management is a significant part of poker, I would say on average poker players are horrible at managing money. Mostly because nobody stays at their maximum ROI/versus time invested/versus income level desired. I suspect some of the characteristics that make people good poker players are the reasons why they can't really manage their money well.

Money management goes beyond having enough backing to play at your odds, or sitting down with a big enough buy-ins. You have to limit spending money on things that are notoriously bad investments. Some of the prop betting, playing games you are unfamiliar with, playing other forms of gambling, backing other players. All these things likely suck money out. Add to that to the average every day money holes people face outside of poker... and it can be a mess.

What are the odds someone finds a sweetspot that lets them work/play 20 hours a week, make 150k a year and they stay there. Same level, same games, nothing new, nothing challenging, just the same old thing. Most poker players would never do that. There are exceptions to every rule, but I would say the typical profile of a poker player from the top pros to the brand new wannabe is pretty similar in terms of basic characteristics.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Coke is a helluva drug.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I think the following could be one of the reason.

lets say u are the 9th best player in the world, do u think u wouldnt go busto if u play against the other 8 best everyday?

i think the money making players are those that play stakes that are high enough but not the highest and make good $$

Top players that keep playing against other Top players do not really a lot edge as compared to finding weaker players.

The top players are just taking turns winning each other's $$, so the money is basically passing around one another.
And because of their expensive life style u know wat happens next... they take turns getting busto...

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

they arent actually good at poker plus they have a ridiculous amount of life leaks

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

-overconfidence
-tilt
-drunk/high
-failed shot taking

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

The ones who are busto are not 'top' players, just the poker media saying they are better they really are.
The real top pros are sick rich, like ivey, brunson, hellmuth. They all have something else in common, investing their poker winnings in stuff that is a lot lower variance than playing poker!

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Almost no one is as good as they think they are. Some are not as good, but are still winning players, and some are going to be longterm losers. The long term is a VERY long time, especially if you are playing live and infrequently, so you are going to see a bunch of "great players" that don't adapt to the fact that they just aren't that great and slowly, over time, going broke just from playing poker. Add to that the fact that some people are playing out of their bankroll, the fact that everyone has life expenses that they need to take out of their bankroll, and the multitude of other leaks (pit games and drugs being the top two) and it's no surprise that you hear about different people going bust every year.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I should really write this as some sort of a seperate post cause its so genius but i guess i'll write it here first as my trial run sort of deal.

The short of it is that poker is a game of investing money or gambling depending on how you play. But if we assume that we are playing under the pretense to invest our money intellegently than the same principles of investing in the stock market apply, however the stock market trades at a much larger level. The reason the tops pro's are broke is because they have reached the poker ceiling, its similar to the investment ceiling which goes by some name that i don't know. if you talk to really good investment bankers, the top ones, they will tell that they can basically make the same average returns year after year with work but not to to much...however, when their portfolio reaches around 500 million dollars then it becomes much more difficult to keep there high return rate. So i would propose that this is what has occured to the current breed of poker players. Because the poker economy is much small than the us stock market the ceiling is much lower.
So i would conclude that investing your money with poker it a good choice but only until say your reach 3 or so million to give an arbitary number. After that point it becomes much better to invest your money in a the stock market.

that'll be 2 cents

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting perspective, the relatively small/elite field as the highest of HSNL/PLO is at too high a level of skill to beat for a large enough winrate to overcome the inevitable blinds (god forbid antes DS), variance, tilt, etc?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Take your pick:

paste--------------
Serotonin is a chemical in the brain that plays a key role in regulating mood and behavior. Norepinephrine, a hormone released in response to stress, has been linked to arousal and risk-taking in compulsive gamblers. Brain cells release dopamine as part of the reward system through which you learn to seek pleasurable stimuli, such as food and sex, and dopamine plays a role in developing addiction.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Almost no one is as good as they think they are. Some are not as good, but are still winning players, and some are going to be longterm losers. The long term is a VERY long time, especially if you are playing live and infrequently, so you are going to see a bunch of "great players" that don't adapt to the fact that they just aren't that great and slowly, over time, going broke just from playing poker. Add to that the fact that some people are playing out of their bankroll, the fact that everyone has life expenses that they need to take out of their bankroll, and the multitude of other leaks (pit games and drugs being the top two) and it's no surprise that you hear about different people going bust every year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Aaron. I recently saw you shortstacking either the 2/4 or 3/6 HSPLO on FT. I know you dont regularly play HSPLO or HSNL, on FTP anyways, were you playing outside your BR? Was there any special reason you were giving that game a shot? Curious is all....

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Almost no one is as good as they think they are. Some are not as good, but are still winning players, and some are going to be longterm losers. The long term is a VERY long time, especially if you are playing live and infrequently, so you are going to see a bunch of "great players" that don't adapt to the fact that they just aren't that great and slowly, over time, going broke just from playing poker. Add to that the fact that some people are playing out of their bankroll, the fact that everyone has life expenses that they need to take out of their bankroll, and the multitude of other leaks (pit games and drugs being the top two) and it's no surprise that you hear about different people going bust every year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me add that playing poker well requires a total disregard for money while gambling with it. Life, on the other hand, requires significant regard for money in deciding how to spend it. The tension between the two is obvious, and it is a rare breed that can shift gears between the two.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Because the play in games where they have little to no edge for massive stakes. And due to pride are unable to move down when they should. That = succeptible to variance = eventually busto.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Coke is a helluva drug.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Take your pick:

paste--------------
Serotonin is a chemical in the brain that plays a key role in regulating mood and behavior. Norepinephrine, a hormone released in response to stress, has been linked to arousal and risk-taking in compulsive gamblers. Brain cells release dopamine as part of the reward system through which you learn to seek pleasurable stimuli, such as food and sex, and dopamine plays a role in developing addiction.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was recently speaking with Alan Schoonmaker, Dr. of Industrial Psychology at Harvard University (who also writes excellent articles for Cardplayer) about just this. I asked him a question to the effect of

"What is it about poker as a hobby that, unlike skiing or skydiving, that causes some people to lose all scope of "real life" and sometimes lose massive amounts of $ via tilt or destroy their marriage/family etc.?"

Dr. Schoonmaker's field is not that of a chemical nature, but he told me that he does not know of any conclusive evidence that the poker experience causes the release of chemicals in the human body that could be perceived as a "physically addictive" nature.

I would like to see an article or study you may know of that relate human hormones to poker.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Balloon payments on adjustable rate mortgages.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol...time to refi

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

the real reason top players are busto = they're gamblers

simple, isn't it??

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

gotta get it gotta have it once i got it i'm a spend it then it's back to doing any damn thing just to get it.

AMIRITE?!?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Coke is a helluva drug.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[/ QUOTE ]

i really isnt

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling. The reason there is a ceiling in the stock market at around 500 million dollars is that at that point your much to large to invest in smaller companies, because you either will end up owning the company or not allowing enough shares for the market to dictate the value of it you also can't invest small portions in lots of companies because of the ammount of time involved in researching the companies, you'd need a very very large team of great investors looking in many different markets. This basically forces you into investing in large companies, though the problem with this is that, large companies are generally held by lots of people so the shares are generally very accurate in representing the company worth. Similar to sports betting on the NFL, unless your the very best, the lines are so close that the average bettor can not make any money off them.

So when were discussing this in regards to poker, the pool of players obvs shrinks as you move up in limits and you can't take advantage of all the donkeys at the 10nl level when your playing but the possibility that a good portion of the 9 players you will play against at your 10nl table will suck is very high, well the proportion of donkeys at each subsequent level decreases probably to some percent, although there may be some random varation. So when you start to reach the 100/200nl (some random level i choose) then the probablity that you will sit with a donkey has dratmatically decreases, and your now happy if a player has a couple of leeks. So obv everyone knows the variance increases as skill increases.

The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.

I was going to write some whole thing about internet leting the very best players play each other and yadda yadda yadda but i wno't cover that now.

I hope this helps answer the question at bit better though

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling. The reason there is a ceiling in the stock market at around 500 million dollars is that at that point your much to large to invest in smaller companies, because you either will end up owning the company or not allowing enough shares for the market to dictate the value of it you also can't invest small portions in lots of companies because of the ammount of time involved in researching the companies, you'd need a very very large team of great investors looking in many different markets. This basically forces you into investing in large companies, though the problem with this is that, large companies are generally held by lots of people so the shares are generally very accurate in representing the company worth. Similar to sports betting on the NFL, unless your the very best, the lines are so close that the average bettor can not make any money off them.

So when were discussing this in regards to poker, the pool of players obvs shrinks as you move up in limits and you can't take advantage of all the donkeys at the 10nl level when your playing but the possibility that a good portion of the 9 players you will play against at your 10nl table will suck is very high, well the proportion of donkeys at each subsequent level decreases probably to some percent, although there may be some random varation. So when you start to reach the 100/200nl (some random level i choose) then the probablity that you will sit with a donkey has dratmatically decreases, and your now happy if a player has a couple of leeks. So obv everyone knows the variance increases as skill increases.

The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.

I was going to write some whole thing about internet leting the very best players play each other and yadda yadda yadda but i wno't cover that now.

I hope this helps answer the question at bit better though

[/ QUOTE ]

good thing I never loose

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I like what u said there warrant

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Balloon payments on adjustable rate mortgages.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol...time to refi

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't refi when there's no more equity!!! busto!!!

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Brad Booth on the Hardcore Poker Show laid it out: he left Vegas with 3 million he built up through live play, and went home to Vancouver. He couldn't find those levels of play live, so he turned to the internet, and his intuitive skills didn't work. Lost a million, then chased it, lost two, chased that, and.... busto. Pretty interesting interview..

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
They haven't built the fame, fortune and success they now hold by practicing piss poor bankroll management

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure that's exactly what a lot of them have done

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Thanks Aaron. I recently saw you shortstacking either the 2/4 or 3/6 HSPLO on FT. I know you dont regularly play HSPLO or HSNL, on FTP anyways, were you playing outside your BR? Was there any special reason you were giving that game a shot? Curious is all....

[/ QUOTE ]


I had been drinking and had to much money in my account. One of those "oh I'll take an 8k shot, it'll be fun", which was obv just an idiot move. I cashed out a decent amount the next day, which I should have done a week ago, to make sure I didn't do it again. I don't play HS, mostly 10/20 and 25/50pl and 30/60 through 1/200 o8.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

warrant's analogy is flawed.

It may be true that poker players reach a ceiling above which they can't effectively use their bankroll (rolled for one level, have excess cash that they can't use to play the next level responsibly, because their edge there is too small is doesn't exist). But those players should simply find their level, play for income, and invest the excess in a market where they don't have that problem. After all, the poker "ceiling" is much lower than the stock market "ceiling." Or, stop playing for income at all, if the money you make elsewhere makes your max poker hourly seem a waste of time. Furthermore, even if an investor cannot find a way around the big-capital problem, at minimum he can earn the risk-free rate, which hardly equals going broke.

Poker players go bust for all the reasons others listed: they play too high due to ego, overestimating their edge, having too much gamble; and/or they have poor money management outside of their bankroll, including bad investments, too much spending, too much pit gambling. But it isn't because their bankroll gets so large that are forced to play with too thin of an edge - believing this is the case assumes that the goal is to perpetually move up; in finance this can be a real problem, because your available investment capital is by definition your entire net worth, and if that amount is too large you run into problems maintaining your roi; in poker you just divert the excess.