*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

PIT @ NYJ
STL @ SF
CHI @ SEA
WAS @ DAL

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

I hate to say it but Dallas -10.5 looks like a great bet. Sean Taylor won't play due to a sprained MCL and James Thrash is likely out as well. I don't think we'll be able to keep this game close at all.

Anyone agree?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

I don't see a line for STL @ SF on bodog yet. Can anyone give me a spread from another site, vegas, or anywhere.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

A couple places have hung STL -3.

FYI you can view lines on a lot of sites without having a login. For example:

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League...L/1/Lines.aspx

They don't have a line up for STL @ SF either, yet.

-P

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

I am on Washington. It looks like a great steal for Dallas with the Taylor injury but I really think this is a desperation game for the Redskins much moreso than the Cowboys. This is also the third straight division game for the Cowboys and they clearly showed up for the first two with spectacular road performances against the Eagles and Giants.

Tony Romo is playing at a high quality level but if Washington has a strength it's their secondary matching up with wide receivers. If you watched the Philadelphia game it was the dual threat ability of Brian Westbrook to match up with the Redskins linebackers.

The Eagles scored a semi-cheap TD when McNabb underthrew the ball to Reggie Brown, as well as throwing it to the wrong shoulder for a touchdown. The Eagles also scored on a very well executed screen pass but it was the skills of Westbrook that made that happen. The Cowboys don't have a running back with the speed and manuverability of Westbrook.

The Giants were just flat out flustered against the Cowboys with countless delay of game and stupid penalties. What I did see was a Giants team that moved the ball against the Cowboys defense, who are still missing DT Ferguson in the middle. Tank Johnson isn't in football shape and the lack of a big time DT doesn't bode well for covering 11 points against a Washington team that will pound Portis and Betts and end up clock, especially on the road in order to take the crowd out of the game.

Take a look at Jeremy Shockey against Dallas last weekend. He had a huge game, his best of the year and in a few years. For a team like the Redskins who love to use the TE Cooley it looks like a comparable situation.

As far as James Thrash missing the game that may be true but I think Santana Moss may be able to give it a go. If not expect Randel El to be more involved in trick plays.

I gave you the Cardinals last week as part of a desperation play (granted it was at home) but I think the same holds true for the Redskins.

Also the Cowboys know that they have to come right back at it on Thanksgiving. They could be a little flat coming off their winning streak and dominance against NFC East opponents...as well as the Redskins throwing clunkers against the Jets (in a win) and against the Eagles (in a loss).

Redskins give up PASSING 218.3 yards per game. they seemed to generate a decent pass rush against the Eagles.

Of the touchdowns one was a fluke to Brown, one was a screen pass solely based on Westbrooks incredible vision and speed and timing, one was based on really good field position and a questionable penalty, and the other the defense laid down so that the offense could get the ball back in a one possession game.

I still think the Patriots offense is far better than the Cowboys offense (personally, from watching both teams go at each other) and outside of that game and the plays I diagnosed in the Eagles game the Redskins offense can keep teams under 24 points.

I think 10.5-11 is too much. I'm not expecting a Redskins win but I'm thinking its a touchdown game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Wagerline is showing SF +3 and Seattle -6.

One or both of those lines is way off. There is no way the difference between the Rams and 9ers is greater than the difference between the Seahawks and Bears, never mind 3 points. Leaning 9ers +3 and Seahawks -6 at the moment, but I'll do some analysis later.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Seattle -6 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This i just a silly line. This is the second week the Bears have had a ridiculous line in their favor. I guess the books think that people haven't figured out that Chicago isn't a 13-3 team yet this year. Chicago sucks. DVOA has them as the 28th ranked team. Chicago has no offense, which is going to make going up against a good defense difficult, and their weakness on D just so happens to be Seattle's strength (passing the ball). Seattle's at home, where they are 4-1, 3 of their wins coming by 14 points or better. Seattle 24-10.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Can anyone find any value in taking the under +40.00 in the PIT game? Seems like with the #1 ranked defense in the league, shutting out NYJ seems reasonable, while giving PIT 1.25 touchdowns per quarter seems about spot on.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

kyro and others,

Any belief in a team coming off a short week after a Monday night win (i.e.: hangover)?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone find any value in taking the under +40.00 in the PIT game? Seems like with the #1 ranked defense in the league, shutting out NYJ seems reasonable, while giving PIT 1.25 touchdowns per quarter seems about spot on.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your feeling, you should be loading up on Pit -9.5

I think the line is OK, though if I had to bet I'd go with the over. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. That alone is enough to keep me away from betting the under on a game below 42.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
kyro and others,

Any belief in a team coming off a short week after a Monday night win (i.e.: hangover)?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not something I've been factoring into any of my decisions thus far, but it's something I'll probably start looking into in the future.

If you're referring to Seattle v Chicago, Seattle didn't exactly have to work hard to beat SF, so I wouldn't put too much stock into it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone find any value in taking the under +40.00 in the PIT game? Seems like with the #1 ranked defense in the league, shutting out NYJ seems reasonable, while giving PIT 1.25 touchdowns per quarter seems about spot on.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your feeling, you should be loading up on Pit -9.5

I think the line is OK, though if I had to bet I'd go with the over. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. That alone is enough to keep me away from betting the under on a game below 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

That being said, the Steelers, if they get up early, will probably run all day, which is a good enough reason not to touch the over. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't particularly like playing with totals when the two teams have completely opposite games on each side of the ball. For example, Pitt should be able to score often, and the Jets not so often (theoretically), so where exactly should the total fall?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Yeah I guess I'll lay off, I'm just trying to find max value in a game that's so lopsided. -9.5 is just fine by me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I guess I'll lay off, I'm just trying to find max value in a game that's so lopsided. -9.5 is just fine by me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If I wasn't including MOV in my analysis, and just DVOA, I'd be all over the Jets. Especially given how inconsistent the Steelers have been on the road this year. I just cannot, in good faith, lay 9.5 points on a team that's 2-2 on the road, against a team that since the Week 1 Pats game, is 1-3 at home with losses of 7, 10 and 3 points, all to decent teams.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Seahawks/Bears U37.5
Risk 1u to win .91u

Since Griese torched Minnesota's secondary for 381 yards, Chicago has once again regressed into a terrible offensive football team. I predicted 10 points max for the worst offense in the league last week, and they scored 0 (though they did end up in the red zone twice). I expect much of the same from the second worst offense in the league.

The Seahawks have been over 37 points 5/9 times this season. Their opponents: Cardinals, Bengals, Saints, Rams, Browns. Only the Rams have a very weak offense, but the Seahawks put up 33 on their defense, and the total was 39. The Seahawks have also been under their opponent's average total 7/9 times. The two times they weren't, they totaled 43 with the Cards (42.5 average) and 63 in an OT game with the Browns (57 average)

Take the under.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

bump

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Im liking STL -3 and SEA -5 1/2 for 1 unit each.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

can pitt get a stop one time? one time pls.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

thx terrel

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

hey guys I placed this 10-pt teaser today. is there any chance that a book will cancel it if its a winner?

Dallas -1.5
Wash +21.5
N.E. -6.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

interception for td plz?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Seattle -6
win

Seattle/Chicago U37.5
loss

Weekly Record
7-4-2
+5.09u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

i lost 5k because of the jets.

i hate my life. and the jets.

that is all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am on Washington. It looks like a great steal for Dallas with the Taylor injury but I really think this is a desperation game for the Redskins much moreso than the Cowboys. This is also the third straight division game for the Cowboys and they clearly showed up for the first two with spectacular road performances against the Eagles and Giants.

Tony Romo is playing at a high quality level but if Washington has a strength it's their secondary matching up with wide receivers. If you watched the Philadelphia game it was the dual threat ability of Brian Westbrook to match up with the Redskins linebackers.

The Eagles scored a semi-cheap TD when McNabb underthrew the ball to Reggie Brown, as well as throwing it to the wrong shoulder for a touchdown. The Eagles also scored on a very well executed screen pass but it was the skills of Westbrook that made that happen. The Cowboys don't have a running back with the speed and manuverability of Westbrook.

The Giants were just flat out flustered against the Cowboys with countless delay of game and stupid penalties. What I did see was a Giants team that moved the ball against the Cowboys defense, who are still missing DT Ferguson in the middle. Tank Johnson isn't in football shape and the lack of a big time DT doesn't bode well for covering 11 points against a Washington team that will pound Portis and Betts and end up clock, especially on the road in order to take the crowd out of the game.

Take a look at Jeremy Shockey against Dallas last weekend. He had a huge game, his best of the year and in a few years. For a team like the Redskins who love to use the TE Cooley it looks like a comparable situation.

As far as James Thrash missing the game that may be true but I think Santana Moss may be able to give it a go. If not expect Randel El to be more involved in trick plays.

I gave you the Cardinals last week as part of a desperation play (granted it was at home) but I think the same holds true for the Redskins.

Also the Cowboys know that they have to come right back at it on Thanksgiving. They could be a little flat coming off their winning streak and dominance against NFC East opponents...as well as the Redskins throwing clunkers against the Jets (in a win) and against the Eagles (in a loss).

Redskins give up PASSING 218.3 yards per game. they seemed to generate a decent pass rush against the Eagles.

Of the touchdowns one was a fluke to Brown, one was a screen pass solely based on Westbrooks incredible vision and speed and timing, one was based on really good field position and a questionable penalty, and the other the defense laid down so that the offense could get the ball back in a one possession game.

I still think the Patriots offense is far better than the Cowboys offense (personally, from watching both teams go at each other) and outside of that game and the plays I diagnosed in the Eagles game the Redskins offense can keep teams under 24 points.

I think 10.5-11 is too much. I'm not expecting a Redskins win but I'm thinking its a touchdown game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to toot my own horn or anything but...

TOOT TOOT!

I nailed the Arizona-Detroit game ("This game deserves its own thread" thread) and then this.

Oh, and if I had to spill the beans for third straight hit the nail on the head winner I like the Lions a lot at +3.5 on Thanksgiving vs Favre and the Packers.