Am I Stoopid?
 

I've been experimenting with this sorta-retarded river line for a while now, mostly on metagame principles. I want to be able to check-raise the river as a bluff occasionally, and I think it is good to expand my overall range to sometimes include one pair.

How would you judge the EV of this line overall? Is it good or lighting money on fire?

Commerce 20/40 Monday night. Seven handed. My image is LAG.

I limp KJo in EP2. (This is about a 60/40 raise/limp for me, my image pushes it to a limp).

Button limps, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: K 6 4 no suits.

Checked to me, I bet, button raises, others fold, I call.

Turn: 5

I check and call.

River: 9

I check and raise.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

You have no idea what the button has, other than the king he represents from a flop raise. You probably had the best hand on the flop, so you should have 3-bet. You may still have the best hand on the river, so you're not really bluffing at all.
On the other hand, I'm not too familiar with Commerce and I sure as hell wouldn't limp with that trash in EP2.

FINAL ANSWER: YES, U R STOOPID.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

I didn't say I was bluffing.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

Your best realistic river c/r opportunities are when you bet the whole way, determine the opponent has a decent hand and then you c/r the river because the hand has gone down in such a way that they will value bet their pair. The next best spot is when you have a draw and get there against people that know how to bet the river. This hand looks like you were just trying to find some spot to be cute.

Just raise preflop, bet/3bet flop and bet the rest of the way. Your river c/r here is profitable I'm sure but the most profitable way to play this hand was also the most straightforward one.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

uhm... are you saying you are folding pf?

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

If I believe that raising will induce at least two cold-callers, then yes, I'm folding in this spot. If I think I can steal the blinds from EP2, then I'm raising. But it's a raise or fold situation with this junk from EP.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

The old rule tells us to bet/raise for value on the river when you think there is 55% chance that you will be called by a worst hand.
If you have the best hand and a LAG image i think it's very likely that your move is good.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I believe that raising will induce at least two cold-callers, then yes, I'm folding in this spot. If I think I can steal the blinds from EP2, then I'm raising. But it's a raise or fold situation with this junk from EP.

[/ QUOTE ]

did you notice it was 7 handed?

whats your vpip? 10%?

edit: just noticed that you recommended folding KJo in the bb getting 9:1. my gawd.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

My VPIP varies, but tends to be directly proportional to my RTFB.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

I often take this line, but this would be the weakest hand I would consider doing this river c/r with and it would entirely be player dependent.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

I don't like doing this, because around here everyone checks their TPNK hand on the river, so it doesn't work.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

That is exactly what would happen around here also. The hands that bet this river are ones that beat you and busted draws. I don't like it.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

Forget VPIP; this is a raise 7-handed on 1) sheer strength of hand relative to your opponents likely hands, and 2) the fact that most of your opponents likely suck and will call with worse, including hands you dominate. I definitely dislike limping here, and prefer folding to that.

Not a fan of a river c/r. You'd have to have a maniacal image to get paid off by something you beat. I'd rather lead the river than c/r it.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That is exactly what would happen around here also. The hands that bet this river are ones that beat you and busted draws. I don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly my concern. Many players at this 20/40 never bet TPGK on the river.

My results so far have been of the two times I used this line, I was called by a better hand. No one has folded yet. More experimentation might be needed but responses here don't seem overwhelmingly negative.

Re: Am I Stoopid?
 

My take on this is that when the river allows a backdoor flush or straight, that is the ideal time to checkraise. Several times that I have check raised the river when I hit backdoor flushes my opponent has folded.

One guy at Commerce 9/18 open folded two pair. Before he folded he said you can't be bluffing here you must have the flush. I said "yeah, only guys in the 20/40 are good enough to bluff that hand" - hoping a little reverse psychology might get the call.

So I'm at Foxwoods 10/20 against fellow 2+2er Signal and the river 6 makes the board 8764x (or else it is K8764). Signal has raised pre-flop and bet every street including the river so he has an overpair (or top pair if the board had a K). On the river, I check then hesitate after he bets, and then I raise. He tosses in another 4 reds and says "I know you have the 5". Well when I flipped my cards over it turned out I didn't. His excuse for calling was that the pot was so big. I just picked the wrong guy - but the upside is that he is going to call just about every river bet I make...