16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t1950)
SB (t1725)
BB (t5115)
Hero (t4710)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4685</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t4285 with AQo like an idiot.

Flop: (t9045) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t9045) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t9045) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t9045

I was wrong. So do most people fold this preflop?

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Depends what call ranges you have other players, esp BB on. Against donkish BBs I fold, but against good ones, stacks are so close to equal that you might be able to expect them to fold everything except like QQ+.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

holy [censored] are you serious ? fold this pronto !

BB(or anyone else in the hand for that matter) is never calling tight enough to make this +EV.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

BE w/ BB at 5%, SB @ 12% and BTN at 10%, you don't think you get that holy? All players should be calling significantly tighter based on pure ICM than those above ranges, I think they're pretty generous.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

meh vers those are really tight ranges, not saying i would never push this but the stars would have to align pretty well.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

from btn it becomes an easy shove?

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

The shorties don't set up well in this hand, they're probably calling too wide &amp; then if we have a moron BB, makes it even worse.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

BB's call isn't that terrible. He must know that he's way ahead of your range, and if he wins, he's a huge favorite to win 1st. If he loses, he's still got a few chips to try to sneak into 3rd with a couple other short stacks still around.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

[ QUOTE ]
BB's call isn't that terrible. He must know that he's way ahead of your range

[/ QUOTE ]

They are the two big stacks - but I don't think I could fold AQ. Especially if UTG had been doing this a lot.

Maybe this is why I go out on the bubble all the time... I just wouldn't make that fold.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Even if BBs call was horrifically bad for him, its worse for us. I don't see any reason at all to shove here.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Even if utg is shoving 100%, AQo is -0.5%. His call is horrible as OP probably isn't shoving worse than like top 45-50 ish... Or maybe a range with less K/Q rags and more mid suited connectors, making it lower than that.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Even if bb had brains, button and sb would call this way too often methinks.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

[ QUOTE ]
BE w/ BB at 5%, SB @ 12% and BTN at 10%, you don't think you get that holy? All players should be calling significantly tighter based on pure ICM than those above ranges, I think they're pretty generous.

[/ QUOTE ]

They call a fair bit wider than that. They are like, ICM, isn't that like a nuclear missile?

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if utg is shoving 100%, AQo is -0.5%. His call is horrible as OP probably isn't shoving worse than like top 45-50 ish... Or maybe a range with less K/Q rags and more mid suited connectors, making it lower than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Vers, I love your posts, and I think you know your stuff, but blimey, you give too much credit to your opponents. They are not complete idiots but very very few players will fold AQ in this spot.

Please note though that you really only see me posting to disagree with you, because I so often feel you nailed it.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

"very very few" is an obvious exaggeration, there are usually a couple of players at the start of each 16 that would fold AQ here.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I don't care about ICM or what not. AQ vs a Button shove here in the BB is gold to me. Seriously, would anyone shove AA, KK, QQ here in the $16s? Why on earth should anyone fold when they are at least a flip, probably 60:40 and maybe even 2:1 vs Ax or Qx? This is for a shot at 1st, would be stupid to fold IMO.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

AQ is a retarded call, as shown above. It's a losing call even if Hero shoves any two cards.
And of course people would shove QQ+.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I don't understand the topic name - "thought", icm cannot be really thought of felt usually, especially on bubble, just run it in sngpt and this would be pretty minus ev.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Uhm...the reason why good players pushbot well is not because they're fast with SNGWiz during the tournies.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I guess its not OP case though? "usually" means before becoming real good at it.
Of-course after analyzing 2k+ hands on bubble you not only think, but know what is good or bad.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Yeah, well...I think you worded it too strongly. "Cannot" is just so off.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

This is +EV all the way down to 66+,A8+,KQ for the shorties and TT+, AQ+ for the big stack, which I think is very loose for all of them. In game, I expected them to be even tighter than this.

I should have mentioned in the post that the BTN had just made a come back and the SB was waiting for him to bust. The big stack was not horrible, so I was surprised by his call.

I will fold trash hands as the 2nd big stack on the bubble from now on, but my question is, how do we define pwning the bubble?

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

i saw spacegravy pushing atc in maaaany of this situation,
maybe becouse he was playng at 60s

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I don't think you can pwn the bubble when you are at risk to bubble yourself.

AQ call is bad but not awful especially if villain had a some history vs you and in the past you pushed ATC in that spot.

Unfortunately push/call ranges applies in our opponents' decision too.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can pwn the bubble when you are at risk to bubble yourself.


[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much agree with that, here you can pwn bubble when big stack has acted already and folded - dealer and sb pushes give great +ev spots, he can't do that too much because u are in front of short stacks for him. After some folds from him and pushes from you youll have him covered and can start pushing trash from utg too, to pwn the bubble [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Reckless shove. TBH I might even spitecall you here with AQ if you're a regular for the reasons above and because you're not supposed to be running the show here.

"This is +EV all the way down to 66+,A8+,KQ for the shorties and TT+, AQ+ for the big stack, which I think is very loose for all of them."

No, it's not loose. On average they call much wider than that. Varies from table to table so it's nice to have a read but with no read on the table, no way in hell this is a shove. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: Someone mentioned something about it being a shove from the button. No. With 10 effective BBs into two stacks on the bubble, I believe even ATo is a fold from button with average ranges. $16 is just one of those levels where idiots wake up with QJ and decide it's the nuts. Oh wait, maybe that's $6.5. No, J2o is the equivalent there.

What I'm saying anyway is that a problem many good winning players are having these days is shoving waaaay too wide from the button. Sure, KT looks like an autoshove sometimes. A2 should be worth going after that pot there or my 56s. No way. Be tight from CO&amp;Button and shove any two from SB is the answer to loads of trouble.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I'm pretty sure the nash equillibrium says you should shove this, but in actuality people suck and call way too wide so I probably fold. Or maybe raise in between because people won't pwn us too much at low stakes but most of the time fold.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Those ranges aren't way off, this is very close.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Yes exactly, if everybody plays equilibrium this hand and a ton of other junk hands become instashoves.

Our equilibrium here doesn't however. If everybody plays perfect, like will be close in the highest SnGs, every shove can be based on "we know that he knows that he can't call profitably with those and those hands" and so on, so we can know when to push any two because we know they won't call without a hand that is a profitable call. That's a totally different world, and TBH playing higher stakes games relieves a lot of range-frustration since in literally every game on lowerstakes we must use different ranges. That's what the 234252-table players are specifically good at, applying the average range of the donkness of the level through experience and base the ICM decision on that.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I push this and would even be happy with slightly -EV according to ICM. The stacksizes after a successful steal here give you a significant advantage and will more than make up for this marginal push in my opinion.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand the topic name - "thought", icm cannot be really thought of felt usually, especially on bubble, just run it in sngpt and this would be pretty minus ev.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thinking about how to correctly apply/adapt ICM is the next step to improving after learning basic ICM. You have to do some thinking and put this hand in its context instead of analyzing it isolation.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

Thinking on next level then this AQ call is pure gold.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I think the number of people defending/advocating AQo as a correct call is pretty sad actually.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

fold, it also spoils your image and you will get called lighter in other spots.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I love wrecking the bubble, but I never see the BB calling tight enough to make this shove +EV in a 16. I know that most winning regs at this level are calling with AQo here. As BB I'd also assign a pretty wide range against a reg like Loxxii, who I know would likely be pushing wide here in order to gain the chiplead and pwn the bubble. I don't think unknown BB is ever folding AK here, and rarely AQ. There isn't a shortstack in danger of busting out on the next hand or anything. However, I still think BB should be folding this hand and jamming at the next opportunity.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I should add that folding allows button and sb both to have the opportunity to shove-- and pretty much anything that happens here increases our equity, even if BB folds.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

don't go all in here

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t6655)
Hero (t2755)
SB (t1175)
BB (t2915)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ?

How about this one?

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

thats a very thin line

I'll shove QTo there but not Q9. could go either way though

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

I like that one a lot less. It's just too marginal to be worth pushing 14BBs without antes. Best case scenario it's going to be around +0.3 %EV, usually it's less. Unlike the 1st hand you don't gain the chiplead after a successful steal here either.

Re: 16: I thought this was a fairly standard push
 

The fact that AQ or worse hands is a bad call here is completely irrelevant. It wasn't the BB who posted the hand. It IS a fact that hardly anyone is folding AQ there and when you get called by that or whatever other hands they call with it is terrible for us.