200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

<font color="green">Villain is 28/4/2.5 over 116 hands, no real other reads or information, other than it's Friday night and the donks are out. Just want to know whether you guys value bet this river and if so how much? His hand seems like a draw, all of which missed. Is he really calling a third barrel with KT/KQ?</font>

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($213.70)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($270.35)</font>
UTG+1 ($157.10)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($260.05)</font>
MP2 ($95)
MP3 ($139.80)
CO ($215.65)
Button ($131.20)
SB ($95.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls $12.

Flop: ($35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28</font>, UTG calls $28.

Turn: ($91) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, UTG calls $60.

River: ($211) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets ???</font>

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

Check. Betting basically commits you for all the cheese and I'm not a big fan of getting 130BBs in with one pair in a spot like this. There's only one worse hand with which might call your VB (KQ) and a bunch of better ones that he could be whacky slow-playing.

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

I agree that his most likely holdings are a club draw like AJc or something like KQ, mabye even AK, too. Therefore I think a VB here is ok IMO: you won't get called here often, but might get called in a few spots by KQ stuff and maybe push villain off a splitting hand in some rare cases.

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

If you bet and UTG pushes, do you like it ? No way and because, I would check. I don't see what hands calling you and these friday donks may slowplay anything or shove anything.

All other streets are fine, IMO.

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check. Betting basically commits you for all the cheese and I'm not a big fan of getting 130BBs in with one pair in a spot like this. There's only one worse hand with which might call your VB (KQ) and a bunch of better ones that he could be whacky slow-playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, especially as the villian raised UTG.
I know its only a min raise, but the guy has a PFR of 4.

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

Arr in.

Re: 200NL AK - Value Bet This River?
 

I'd shove this for sure.