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-   -   THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=558984)

People_Mover 12-01-2007 10:23 PM

THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
after looking over the hand, yes, my bets are too small, so leave that out. :P

FullTiltPoker Game #4361554370: Table Arid (heads up) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:55:05 ET - 2007/12/01
Seat 1: Shipitoverhere ($948.75)
Seat 2: agilitybob ($437.75)
agilitybob posts the small blind of $2
Shipitoverhere posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Shipitoverhere [Ac Ad]
agilitybob calls $2
Shipitoverhere raises to $12
agilitybob calls $8
*** FLOP *** [Ts 6d Js]
Shipitoverhere bets $19
agilitybob calls $19
*** TURN *** [Ts 6d Js] [Ah]
Shipitoverhere bets $48
agilitybob calls $48
*** RIVER *** [Ts 6d Js Ah] [3s]
Shipitoverhere checks
agilitybob bets $158
Shipitoverhere has 15 seconds left to act
Shipitoverhere has requested TIME

River check maybe sucks? I dunno. Block bet easily gets shoved on by a good player, check/call? bet/fold to raise, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

tmcdmck 12-01-2007 11:30 PM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
any reads? pretty bad turn and river i must say. any idea whatsoever on how villain plays draws though? i guess it is probably a fold since villain is in position, and people are alot more likely to play draws passively in postion/ unlikely to slowplay on that board. a call basically turns into a bluffcatcher. but yeah, eurgh

brandysbich 12-01-2007 11:35 PM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
I dunno it depends on his river aggression whether I like c/c.

FWIW I'd rather b/f against someone like bobby, he's just not capable of raising you on the river without the goods.

Also why is your bet amounts so small?

Preflop and oop I make it 18/20ish then at least 30/34 on the flop and so on. Specially against a station like bob.

-edit I just went over your hand and missed the top part about your small bets...sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

-double edit...as played i def call here.

tmcdmck 12-01-2007 11:40 PM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
[ QUOTE ]
-double edit...as played i def call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have never played the guy, so maybe you know something i dont, but why are we calling here? apart from the fact we have 3 aces omg, obviously.

brandysbich 12-01-2007 11:58 PM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
No, thats about it...we have a set hu against a station omg.

So many hands he could be 'value betting' here besides the flush or KQ. A lower set (yes he will limp 1010 JJ otb button)
10J, other 2pr's with the case ace, air.

MasterLJ 12-02-2007 12:23 AM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
One of the biggest problems with this hand is pre-flop. If you make it 5, or even 4BB raise it will allow you to pot MUCH larger on later streets.

$20 preflop makes for a $40 pot on the flop, c-bet $35ish, maybe higher, $110 on the turn, pot it and he has most of his stack committed making river much easier to play.

As played I really can't see him without a flush here, although in practice I'm calling here just about always. His non-flush range includes air and some really weird two pairs imo.

Let's even assume he has an OESFD (8s9s) we gave him improper odds on the turn to draw, and his river bet doesn't quite complete the implied odds necessary for the turn call (it may be close but I'm too lazy to do the actual math)... combined with the fact that you have the best hand here sometimes, I think a call is pretty good.

mb6tour 12-02-2007 12:31 AM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
convert your hand please

tmcdmck 12-02-2007 12:41 AM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
[ QUOTE ]
No, thats about it...we have a set hu against a station omg.

So many hands he could be 'value betting' here besides the flush or KQ. A lower set (yes he will limp 1010 JJ otb button)
10J, other 2pr's with the case ace, air.

[/ QUOTE ]

so in conclusion there is alot you know about villain that i dont :P everything you typed goes contrary to assumptions id make about unknown except for calling station.

and when you say there are "so many" other hands he could be value betting, you realise that our equity vs any set, any aces up, JT, any straight or any flush (giving him the range you suggested, excluding air) is only 30%, making it an clear fold for us. and this is without weighting the range at all, when clearly it should be somewhat weighted towards straights and flushes (especially flushes).

so yes, if his range really does contain all the hands you suggested, and it is non weighted, and he is capable of taking that line with air often enough, then it is a call (though a pretty thin one taking that all for granted).

*edit* though to be fair if we are weighting the range, we would have to weight preflop aswell, and i have no idea how it would be weighted with this villain, as i would have weighted it well away from TT and JJ, and you have made it clear that is a mistake*

brandysbich 12-02-2007 01:18 AM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
Nah agilitybob is a bit a of character to play at times..he's pretty well known for being one.

I've never really been any good at the numbers game but I don't get what you say when you mean our equity against other sets and 2prs is 30%, that makes no sense to me....our equity is 100% against all 2prs and like +%95 against other sets...so no its not a clear fold without weighting the range towards flushes and straights as you put it.

Maybe i'm reading it wrong but thats not making a whole lot of sense to me. As far as preflop goes, i've played agilitybob before and he's limped aces and kings otb preflop against me so its not totally impossible for him to have a set of jacks or tens.

I'll be the first to admit I know nothing about pokerstove and working out what % of the time a call is good so maybe you could help me out here by explaining what you meant.

Personally I dont like to make things more complicated than they are. You have top set in a raised pot with 1 straight possibility and the spade falling on the river making the flush possible, you're up against a calling station hu, I dont see folding ever being an option unless you b/folding on the river, and even then its a tough fold getting the odds you getting to make the call. Longterm I think you lose more making these great laydowns with hands as strong as top set than you save the times you right.

tmcdmck 12-02-2007 01:36 AM

Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH
 
hmm well i didnt explain the numbers because most people in this forum are experienced with poker stove (and you should be too: go download it and fool around, it will REALLY help your game: you cant pokerstove in the middle of a match easily, but it gets you thinking in terms of equity vs ranges)

okay i will explain

1) you have 30% equity vs villains range on RIVER
2) and so on river you have 100% equity vs sets and 2 pairs, because you have them beat and there are no cards to come
3) BUT you have 0% equity vs straights and flushes for the same reasons
4) for every 3 possible set or 2 pair combos, there are 7 straight or flush combos (mostly flush combos): there are alot more combinations of cards that makes flushes than there are that make 2 pairs on this board.
5) therefore, 70% of his his possible holdings beat you, 30% lose to you
6) therefore, you would call this bet expecting to win 30% of the time

i am not sure how clear that made things. basically i calculated heros river equity vs the whole of villains given range. if you dont get that, i dont really know how to explain any more clearly.

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I dont like to make things more complicated than they are.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not. i am making them exactly as complicated as they are, which happens to be quite complicated. yes, you could take the "zomg 3 aces" approach, and you would not go far wrong with it. but this forum is not about how not to go far wrong, it is about how to play the absolute best you possibley could and become a better player. therefore you sometimes have to think about advanced concepts and crunch alot of numbers.

[ QUOTE ]
Longterm I think you lose more making these great laydowns with hands as strong as top set than you save the times you right

[/ QUOTE ]

the whole point of an equity calculation (like the one i made) is to figure out whether a laydown is worth making in the longterm. the numbers i got suggest it is. also hand strength is relative. on a 3flush 3 straight board a set is a strong hand, but not that strong a hand.


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