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-   -   Bad flop for AA, just fold? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557803)

InsideEdge 11-30-2007 05:31 AM

Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
New to the table no reads. Not the flop i was looking for. Pf raise is a little small i know.

Club on the Park 1.00/2.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker
Button INeedFish ($81.10)
SB gypo111 ($165.71)
BB Hero ($200.00)
UTG truckingfools ($214.10)
UTG+1 slyxfoxx69 ($266.02)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with Ahttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...ages/heart.gif Ahttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...mages/club.gif
truckingfools raises to 7.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to 18.00, truckingfools calls 13.00.
Flop (41.00) Jhttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...es/diamond.gif Khttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...ages/heart.gif Thttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...ages/heart.gif
Hero bets 30.00, truckingfools raises to 60.00

sMethod 11-30-2007 05:35 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
Hesitate then say to you self while shrugging he could have AK before you shove.

AlanDyer 11-30-2007 06:50 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
easy alll in baby

Keyser. 11-30-2007 06:54 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
ez fold actually

oli1980 11-30-2007 06:56 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
lots of two pair combinations which have you crushed... just fold

Tanky 11-30-2007 07:11 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
Raise preflop to 25-28,

Fold to flop raise, KJ JT TT JJ AQ QhJh KQ QQ as a range has you in a lot of trouble.

Youre praying he has one of the 6 combos of AK.

Orsman 11-30-2007 07:17 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
fold

Grandezza 11-30-2007 07:35 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

83,160 games 0.005 secs 16,632,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Kh Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.737% 52.73% 02.01% 43849 1670.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 45.263% 43.26% 02.01% 35971 1670.00 { AQs+, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AhTh, AsTs, KTs+, QJs, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJs, AcTs, AdTs, AhTs, KTo+, QJo, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QhTc, QhTd, QsTc, QsTd, QsTh, JTo }

What do you think of this range? some of the speculative hands such as AT I only weighted half or less.

I think I get it in here.. even if this range is to wide op only has to be good 37% of the time according to my gorilla math.

Tanky 11-30-2007 07:43 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
I think the rang is too wide, but more importantly when you shove what is his calling range??

This is a situation where youre either slightly ahead or WAY behind, youre out of position with no outs to improve (cos the 2 remaining As are the worst cards in the deck for you)...a fold is clearly right despite the great pot odds youre getting to call.

Grandezza 11-30-2007 07:51 AM

Re: Bad flop for AA, just fold?
 
i left out jj/tt but check this out: for folding his range would have to look like this (note, this is neutral ev)


Board: Jd Kh Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.915% 33.83% 04.08% 8373 1011.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 62.085% 58.00% 04.08% 14355 1011.00 { JJ-TT, AQs+, KJs-KTs, AQo+

folding seems very bad imo. also note that vs all two pair hands you have 6 outs.

of the hands i had in the first stove I'm pretty sure he's not folding any of them to a shove


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