NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

Opponent is like 16/12/2 after 500 hands.
No detailed reads or history.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $69.20
BB: $40.00
UTG: $203.00
MP: $217.15
CO: $197.00
Hero (BTN): $207.40

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $8.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40.00</font>, UTG calls $26.00

Turn: ($99) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $74.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero...

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

I wouldn't fold it, all-in. he's gonna show up with overs more often then a straight here imo.

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

call turn and fold to river if he shoves.... he's not gona 3 barrel with overpair if he's a nit. hopefully he shows up with 88-aa here.

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

you cant just call the turn... youre not deep enough to fold the river when you dont fill up.


anyway, i push this all day vs a 16/12. hes a nit and his range is polarized towards JJ+, AKcc/AQcc.

also, you can raise more on the flop

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

This looks a lot like a bluff IMO, I'd shove here and feel pretty good about it. He has to have specifically 7cXc here or a stubborn 77 both of which seem unlikely. I think he's turning a stubborn overpair into a bluff because of the scary board or maybe playing high clubs in a bizarre manner hoping he has some fold equity.

Moral of the story: I get it in here

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

His turn donk strikes me as not a made straight. You have like 20% equity if he does have a straight. I don't love this spot but I think I would either shove or at least call the turn (only to allow him to continue bluffuing the turn). Though he could have a flush draw, and he's trying to rep the straight. So maybe I just like a turn shove with a little equity if he does have the straight. How many hands really have a 7 or a 2 on that board, that can call a check raise? 22, 77, 67s?? There's a LOT of hands you beat. That's about all you don't beat and you still have roughly 20% equity agaist those hands. I'd shove.

Re: NL200 bottom set - should I consider a fold?
 

Shove the turn. You see the stuff cs3 mentioned here so often (JJ+ / big suited broadway). You can't wait til the river when more than half the deck is going to be a scare card for one or both of you.