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-   -   DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=543494)

TomBrooks 11-11-2007 08:55 AM

DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
DEAL or NO DEAL. USA TV Game Show. Airs Friday nights, 8pm EST on NBC.

What is the correct way to decide whether to accept the bankers offer?

The way I'm figuring it, you add the remaining dollar amounts and divide the total dollars by the number of cases left. That would be your EV.

If the bankers offer is substantially lower, pick more cases. If the bankers offer is close to your EV, either accept it or pick more cases. It doesn't matter. But accepting is lower variance and less risky.

If the bankers offer is higher than EV, accept it. This rarely happens.

Is this correct?

pococurante 11-11-2007 10:48 AM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
Yep, that's pretty much it. Usually the offer will be less than 60% of your EV. Once the player gets down to 6-7 cases remaining, the offers become reasonable, and it's time to accept. Whether you win a large amount of money or not depends purely upon luck.

NickNick 11-11-2007 02:24 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
Bankers offer is always -EV.

The time to deal is only really when the amount becomes significant to you.

How does that paradigm (3 doors, pick 1, shown one of the ones thats a booby prize, switch, etc) work here?

If you are left with $20,000 and $50,000 there was a 1/20 chance you picked the $20,000 and so 19/20 chance that its in the other box.....likwise with numbers reversed. Do you switch?

Or does this not apply here because it wasn't a win/lose situation?

ShaneP 11-11-2007 02:35 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV.

The time to deal is only really when the amount becomes significant to you.

How does that paradigm (3 doors, pick 1, shown one of the ones thats a booby prize, switch, etc) work here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't--the short reason is the doors/cases aren't chosen in the same way (or more exactly, with the same information)


[ QUOTE ]
If you are left with $20,000 and $50,000 there was a 1/20 chance you picked the $20,000 and so 19/20 chance that its in the other box.....likwise with numbers reversed. Do you switch?

Or does this not apply here because it wasn't a win/lose situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't apply because the chance that either case holds the $20,000 or the other one is 50/50. (assuming just two cases left). This has been discussed before--use search if you want to find the reasoning.

Shane

T50_Omaha8 11-11-2007 03:17 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV.


[/ QUOTE ] Untrue

Merton0806 11-11-2007 04:03 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Bankers offer is always -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

seen several UK episodes where this is not true

pococurante 11-11-2007 05:27 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
Banker's offer in the US can also be +EV. I saw a show last week with $750k and $10 remaining, the offer was $400k.

LerkEr 11-11-2007 08:06 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Banker's offer in the US can also be +EV. I saw a show last week with $750k and $10 remaining, the offer was $400k.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is stupid i know but there is a slot machine in the U.K i was in the pub last night playing deal or no deal slot.
i got on the board and got down to the final two boxes
10 and mega streak (mega streak pays about 80)
the banker offered me 25, i think that offer is -ev so being the prick i was i didn't take it and the box was 10
my conclusion bankers offer is -ev

rufus 11-11-2007 10:49 PM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]

What is the correct way to decide whether to accept the bankers offer?
...
Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's unclear what the banker's behavior is, or whithat the actual value of the money is. Without those two pieces of information, it's not too easy to determine the correct strategy.

Generally speaking, it's going to be a poor choice to take the deal when it's lower than the geometric mean of the values, and a good choice to take the deal when it's higher than the arithmetic mean, but you don't see contestants with calulators.

TomBrooks 11-12-2007 01:20 AM

Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't see contestants with calulators.

[/ QUOTE ] I've only seen a few episodes, so my sample is very small, but the contestants I saw didn't even seem to be able to do simple arithmetic in their head.


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