400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Villain seems pretty solid, running @ 22/13/1.6. Whats your response to this check raise? I don't think he's doing this with air, but the flop is kind of drawy. Is there any profitable way to continue in this hand?

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BTN: $901.70
SB: $495.30
BB: $449
Hero (UTG): $445
MP: $82
CO: $453.90

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $16</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $14, BB folds

Flop: ($36) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $28</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $76</font>

Hero ...?

If you'd call here, what turns would you call another barrel?

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

you beat 88 or A7s. can't see him flatting 45 outta the sb.

i should get pokerstove, but i'd put range as KcQc/QcJc/AcXc, etc /77/33/22/88 maybe 66.

regardless, it's very close and I'd like to see pokerstover numbers...but i wouldn't love getting in here against any of those flush draws, except for the fact that we have a club. But I think you can confidently fold here.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
you beat 88 or A7s. can't see him flatting 45 outta the sb.

i should get pokerstove, but i'd put range as KcQc/QcJc/AcXc, etc /77/33/22/88 maybe 66.

regardless, it's very close and I'd like to see pokerstover numbers...but i wouldn't love getting in here against any of those flush draws, except for the fact that we have a club. But I think you can confidently fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I appreciate/ agree with your analysis. I think, given his flop aggression factor, his hands are weighted towards those that are beating me. I guess I have to get a better idea of villains range when he cold calls an UTG raise OOP.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

anyone else agree sometimes villian shows up with like AJo here or KQo?

Perhaps this is just my experience, but i've seen some 22/11s or w/e do some of this stupid [censored] and then just check it down if you call flop.

Meh.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone else agree sometimes villian shows up with like AJo here or KQo?

Perhaps this is just my experience, but i've seen some 22/11s or w/e do some of this stupid [censored] and then just check it down if you call flop.

Meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its possible, but unlikely. Don't see this 22 VPIP cold calling with a hand like that OOP, no less from an UTG raise. But, even if it is possible, his check raise on this flop almost completely out rules mere overs. I guess I have to put him on a set or 88/TT/JJ. I don't think I'm really in great shape vs. his range.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

Lets overanalyse and generalise a stat number to help us with complicated flop decisions!

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

With a post flop aggression of 1.6 I would fold here. He's probably either got a flush draw with two overs in which case it's a flip, or a set, TT, or JJ in which case you're way behind.

I doubt he would C/R with A7.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

I'd fold. He's not messing around enough.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

What people aren't considering is that 99 = AA here. Of course, 99 is outdrawn by overs whereas AA is not, but if that's what the difference is, you should be calling with 99.

AF = 1.6 = Makes 99 a lean towards fold and QQ+ a call by a narrow margin imo. JJ is the toughest hands to deal with in this spot. Unless you know his 3betting range.

Re: 400NL 99 facing C/R
 

[ QUOTE ]
What people aren't considering is that 99 = AA here. Of course, 99 is outdrawn by overs whereas AA is not, but if that's what the difference is, you should be calling with 99.

AF = 1.6 = Makes 99 a lean towards fold and QQ+ a call by a narrow margin imo. JJ is the toughest hands to deal with in this spot. Unless you know his 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA isn't like 99. AA is doing much better against his broadway flush draws. AA beats TT and JJ, which can very well be played this way by villian. It's even possible he's trapping QQ and KK preflop.

These definitely make my decision (to stack off) with AA easy. I do agree JJ is a very tough decision in this spot. I would probably stack off with it, though.