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-   -   How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=556635)

Mr Rick 11-28-2007 11:50 PM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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I have a question: technically speaking, doesn't this procedure give his opponent a slight advantage? For example, suppose there is a 2 flush on board and the "fake" turn card completes it? He now knows that the odds of the flush completing on the turn are actually a little lower than usual because one of the flush cards is not eligible to come out on the turn. Or even worse, suppose his opponent holds an UI pocket pair, and the fake turn would have spiked him a set? Now he knows that card is not coming on the turn....

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but it is shuffled back in for the river.

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But it can ONLY come on the river. "1 out twice" is better then "1 out once".

The card room's procedure is what is retarded, if I read it correctly. There should be a chance for the mis dealt turn to be the same card, by dealing the would be river as the turn and THEN re-shuffling is beyond retarded. If you are going to enforce killing an exposed board card (also dumb) then you darn well better shuffle it back in before re-dealing the turn.

Wow, what an awful procedure.

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No, this analysis is wrong. The all-in decision was made with three cards showing and two to come, just as would be the case had no error occurred. The original river card (the same actual physical card) has been moved to the turn - so obviously, no change there. The random turn card becomes a random river card. No change there, despite the fact that a random card was flashed.

I think your error is the fallacy that "it can only come on the river", so that somehow it's different. Not so, as the order doesn't matter. The reality is that there are two slots, and one is already filled - by the exact same physical card that would have filled a slot no matter what. And the other slot is filled by a random card. The order doesn't matter. That's the accurate analysis.

The procedure is 100% fair, and there really is no legitimate basis for complaint.

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This latest analysis is off or it is a level...

The Villain's advantage is that he knows that the odds of this card coming out in the rest of the hand are 50% of what they were if he had legitamitely made his decision to call before the dealer burned and turned.

As an example, if I was deciding whether to make a call on the flop to fill a gut shot and while I was making that decision the dealer prematurely turned over one of my 4 outs for that gutshot, it changes the pot odds I would need to make that call. I now have 3 outs on the turn and 4 on the river. Before the fiasco I would have thought I had 4 outs on the turn (4/47) and then 4 outs on the river (4/46) to hit or: 1 - (43/47 * 42/46) = 16.5%. But after the fiasco my turn chances have been reduced to 3 outs (3/46) so by the river my chances are 1 - (43/46 * 42/46) = 14.7%.

RR 11-29-2007 12:07 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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As an example, if I was deciding whether to make a call on the flop to fill a gut shot and while I was making that decision the dealer prematurely turned over one of my 4 outs for that gutshot, it changes the pot odds I would need to make that call. I now have 3 outs on the turn and 4 on the river. Before the fiasco I would have thought I had 4 outs on the turn (4/47) and then 4 outs on the river (4/46) to hit or: 1 - (43/47 * 42/46) = 16.5%. But after the fiasco my turn chances have been reduced to 3 outs (3/46) so by the river my chances are 1 - (43/46 * 42/46) = 14.7%.

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You chances of hitting on the river are better than you suggested because you have a 1 in 24 chance of hitting exactly the exposed card.

Mr Rick 11-29-2007 12:49 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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As an example, if I was deciding whether to make a call on the flop to fill a gut shot and while I was making that decision the dealer prematurely turned over one of my 4 outs for that gutshot, it changes the pot odds I would need to make that call. I now have 3 outs on the turn and 4 on the river. Before the fiasco I would have thought I had 4 outs on the turn (4/47) and then 4 outs on the river (4/46) to hit or: 1 - (43/47 * 42/46) = 16.5%. But after the fiasco my turn chances have been reduced to 3 outs (3/46) so by the river my chances are 1 - (43/46 * 42/46) = 14.7%.

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You chances of hitting on the river are better than you suggested because you have a 1 in 24 chance of hitting exactly the exposed card.

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I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

So the chances on the river of hitting the 4 outs are (3/46 + 1/42) and the total chances of hitting the hand after the fiasco would be: 1 - ((43/46) * (1 - (3/46 + 1/42)) = 14.74%

Rounding to two places the difference was 14.65% vs. 14.74%.

This doesn't significantly change the point of my argument - which is that using this procedure the player yet to act has an advantage - which could be significant depending on what card originally came out on the turn.

That advantage is much greater than the slight change in odds the player yet to act would have if the seen card was shuffled back in for the turn (roughly 0.1% change for the turn and 0.1% for the river).

yjbrewer 11-29-2007 12:54 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
Doctor amputates your left leg instead of removing your third nipple and his insurance pays the settlement and he keeps on doing operating. When was the last time you heard of an airline pilot having to reimburse everyone for an airplane crash?



Funniest [censored] ive ever heard!

RR 11-29-2007 12:55 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

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No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%.

kailua 11-29-2007 01:25 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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As a professional poker player, EVERY mistake I make costs me money.

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not so

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I agree. Clearly OP doesn't know much about poker. I make mistakes and make money all the time (but I'm bad at poker). Every mistake costs you *theoretical* money, but since OP doesn't understand the concept of theoretical money (as evidenced by claiming the dealer cost him $1800) I don't think thats what he meant.

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Each mistake could *theoretically* cost him money.

Conversely, mistakes making money is what helps keep the games full.

Mr Rick 11-29-2007 01:58 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

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No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%.

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OK I see my mistake. All of the dealt hands don't make it into the stub. I get to 26 cards left because even though there is another burn card on the turn, that card could be the exposed card and the player never gets to see it... The 26 cards left takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 18 opponent cards , 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

The result would be 16.2% after fiasco vs. 16.5% before fiasco. Not a big deal...

However, if the exposed card were to be reshuffled into the stub before the turn, the chances of the gutshot coming out would now be 19.4% !!! (this is because that card would have a 1/27 chance of showing up on the turn...). So there would be an unfair advantage if a significant card was reshuffled for the turn.

Wow do I have egg on my face. Thanks for showing me the light, RR.

schwerd2 11-29-2007 02:07 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
I bet you haven't dealt a day in your life. Stop being a nit. STFU.

RR 11-29-2007 02:18 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
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I get to 26 cards left because even though there is another burn card on the turn, that card could be the exposed card and the player never gets to see it... The 26 cards left takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 18 opponent cards , 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

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There are 25 cards in the stub. 20 were dealt out, 4 on the board and 3 burns. The third burn cannot be the exposed card because it hasn't been shuffled in yet. If it is a 10 handed table there are 25 cards in the reshuffle and 1 of them is the exposed card. If the premature card is the river instead of the turn the reshuffle really helps someone who needs that card. The worst case I have heard of was in a Omaha game where someone had a one outer but then the card was dealt prematurely so he called because it was promoted to a 4:1 shot (4 cards plus the exposed card in the reshuffled Omaha stub).

Captain R 11-29-2007 02:39 AM

Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
 
Don't worry, you're still up $1200 Sklansky dollars! Just hope your landlord has read Theory of Poker.

Captain R, down more Sklansky dollars than he has real dollars.


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