Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kennedy doesn't have a plus pitch. His best offering is a changeup that would grade as a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his 89-91 mph fastball, his curveball and slider are all average

[/ QUOTE ]

For those who don't know, guys who are called 55's are projected to be big league regulars. That being said, two average pitches + one 55 pitch is nothing to laugh about - that's a solid #3 on any team and a #2 on a few.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

hughes floor is as a number 2?
yea cant miss prospects never miss and there arent a ton of guys who go from a great prospect to nothing

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would Mo's cutter(in his prime i.e 95MPH) get?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is Joba's slider an 80?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
hughes floor is as a number 2?
yea cant miss prospects never miss and there arent a ton of guys who go from a great prospect to nothing

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling Hughes a prospect is a very loose definition of the term.

Cameron Maybin is a prospect. Daric Barton is a prospect. Ian Kennedy is a prospect. Hughes is not one of those.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would Mo's cutter(in his prime i.e 95MPH) get?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably 75.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is Joba's slider an 80?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't done much prospect research on Joba, but I don't think any of his pitches grade out at 75 or higher. He's special because he has four plus or better pitches.

EDIT: Also, fwiw, slider's don't often get graded 75+ unless they have ridiculous tilt and fade. Dominant curveballs are much tougher to find than dominant sliders, making it "easier" to get a high-grade curve. The reason for this is because everyone has switched over to sliders (and other fastball variants - splitters, cutters) with the shrinking strike zone making it difficult for true curveballs to get called third strikes. With the high strike being taken away by most umpires, the curve is much less effective in today's game.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is Joba's slider an 80?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think moreso liriano's or randy johnson's might be labeled such

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is Joba's slider an 80?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think moreso liriano's or randy johnson's might be labeled such

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, RJ's prime slider is definitely an 80.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Hughes has a floor of being a #2 pitcher. That's the worst-case scenario with the kid. His scouting grades look something like:

Fastball (93-95 mph) - 70
Curve - 75
Change - 60 (but improving)

That's insane talent. 75 is a dominant, dominant pitch, and a 70 is well above-average. The only examples of an 80 pitch I can think of are Pedro's changeup, Rick Ankiel's curve, and Bob Feller's fastball. Pitches that are outstanding but not true 80's would be something like Zumaya's fastball, Gagne's (even in his prime) fastball, Peavy's slider, Santana's changeup, and Bonderman's slider.

To get an 80 grade means the pitch is nearly unhittable.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would Mo's cutter(in his prime i.e 95MPH) get?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably 75.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a prime Mo cutter would be rated about 50% 75, 50% 80. I also think there are more 80 fastballs than you listed. 80 breaking stuff is pretty much unhittable, but with MLers every fastball is hittable in some respect, so the qualifier that pitch must be unhittable in order to be 80 is wrong IMO when dealing with fastballs. Zumaya has an 80 fastball, Neighborgall when he used to buzz 101 for Ga. Tech with electric movement was an 80 fastball (edit:but it played much lower due to his lack of command), Verlander is close. But I'm just being a nit.

Joba's slider on the "raw" scale would probably be a 70, but his feel for it probably makes it play up to a 75 like Kyle said.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Zumaya's fastball is pretty straight. I don't think it grades out at 80.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Possibly, ill try to find something online about it

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I found this article that mentions Zumaya's fastball as an 80, Santana's change, and Liriano's slider, but it's not exactly a technical scouting report. It is,however, an article about Jason Neighborgall, and a good one at that. So check it out.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I knew I recognized that name - the kid with the golden arm (who can't throw strikes).

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Resign Jorge, Mo, A-Rod, Andy.

Deal Giambi.

Rest in offseason/organize pen/rotation.

WS 2008.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Andruw jones or tori hunter would be a HUGE mistake... and I think cashman is smart enough to realize this

Which catchers are FA's?

Which CF's are free agents
.......

I'm sure there is a good website to view this info.. link anyone?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Which catchers are FA's?

[/ QUOTE ]

No one even worth thinking about.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure there is a good website to view this info.. link anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/0...lb_free_a.html

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

ZOOOOMMMGGGGG Posada is so old and so obviously took steroids the past two seasons to land a final big money contract.... HE"S SOOOO OOOLLDDDD FOR A CATCHER... NO CATCHER HAS EVER BEEN GOOD AT HIS AGE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH... He will be a certain black whole before the end of the decade

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Sign Rowand and trade matsui or damon for a catcher...


Edit:
what catchers would be available for a trade? Even if they threw in a lot of money (paying for the player they traded still) It would still save them money from signing posada to a new deal.. and they would be a better team

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

pettite bridges the gap very nicely until the following year when they can sign an elite SP in his place

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Resign Jorge, Mo, A-Rod, Andy.

Deal Giambi.

Rest in offseason/organize pen/rotation.

WS 2008.

[/ QUOTE ]

Deal Giambi lol..is that a joke? He's banged up and has to play DH, and with his contract who would possibly trade for him?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sign Rowand and trade matsui or damon for a catcher...


Edit:
what catchers would be available for a trade? Even if they threw in a lot of money (paying for the player they traded still) It would still save them money from signing posada to a new deal.. and they would be a better team

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

who the [censored] would take matsui or damon for a good catcher? please.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sign Rowand and trade matsui or damon for a catcher...


Edit:
what catchers would be available for a trade? Even if they threw in a lot of money (paying for the player they traded still) It would still save them money from signing posada to a new deal.. and they would be a better team

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

who the [censored] would take matsui or damon for a good catcher? please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget I said damon... matsui...plus a bunch of money... plus some other mid level guys (farnsworth has value if the yanks pay his contract) and you should be able to get a good catcher... then you can still play melky a good deal... improve your defense and not be stuck with a black whole at catcher in 2010 making a bajilliondy dollars

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

No one wants Matsui. He is an aging left fielder who plays godawful defense with a decent OBP and good slugging percentage - but costs way too much.

There are no real catchers for trade, but it's not like it matters; Posada is getting re-signed for sure.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

lol @ onlinebeginner - yea because there are teams just loaded with catchers that they want to give away.\

hint - even the .230/.310/.415 that posada will be hitting in 3 years will be above replacement.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

wasn't jose molina starting for the angels at one point?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Does Brian Cashman not want Torre back? Or is he just afraid to be seen as contradicting his owner?

He sure weaseled out of the question during his interview today on the FAN. Was asked point blank if he would want Torre back, and he talked about the process, honoring the process, a process would start, and how he wouldn't give recommendations before the start of the process.

But when it came to ARod, he was awfully quick to state his recommendation.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]


as for letting a-rod walk - uh this lineup doesn't look all that good like this:

damon
jeter
abreu
matsui
posada
cano
betemit
1B (invariably some [censored]-hitting 1B)
cabrera

there's not that much power in that lineup. lot of guys who can hit 20 home runs but not many who can hit 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

That lineup looks like one of the best in the AL, and if the extra money is spent on pitching (I am thinking of options now, it will be more than fine. .

[/ QUOTE ]

The 2007 Yankees had an OPS+ of 123, the best in the AL. Second was 111 (Detroit), third was 110 (Boston).

OPS+ 2007 Career
damon 101 104
jeter 126 123
abreu 119 135
matsui 128 126
posada 160 126
cano 124 119
betemit 84 98
cabrera 93 95
giambi 112 148
-------------------------
A-Rod 183 148

Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit. And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average. Those two guys are the main reasons the Yankees had a great offense.

Posada is almost certain to decline substantially, and not because of steroid usage (it's offensive that a so called yankees fan would make these unsubstantiated claims). Other aging risks include Abreu, Matsui, Damon, & Jeter, so the offense has the potential to fall off a cliff and be average at best without A-Rod. If you view them positionally, your 2008 expectations have to be something like this (I don't have access to positionally adjusted EQAs, so this is all guesstimates from OPS).

Above Average Hitters For Their Positions
- ARod. At least 50% better than the average 3B.
- Posada. Almost twice the hitter this year as an average catcher.
- Jeter. At least 30% better hitter than the average SS.
- Cano. 20-30% better than average 2B.

Average Hitters For Their Positions
- Matsui. He's always been above average, was still above average in 07, but he's getting old and you can't expect more than average.
- Abreu was still above average in 07, but he's declining fast.
- Cabrera. He could potentially improve enough to be an above average hitting centerfielder during his career.

Below Average Hitters
- Damon. He's an above average hitter for a centerfielder, but below average at the corners or DH.
- Betamit. Maybe he's close to average for 2B, but not for 3B.
- Giambi. In 07 he was below average hitter for 1B and a lousy defender. He might actually have been an average full time DH given the dregs that usually get trotted out there in the AL. He could easily rebound to be above average again or fall off a cliff.
- Dougie Eychart. League average hitter is below average at 1B.

A-Rod & Posada are the biggest offensive outperformers the Yankees have and it's not even close. Not only is Posada almost certain to regress, but he's also a defensive liability. Jeter is tied for the best hitting AL SS, but he's also a terrible defensive liability. A-Rod is by far the best hitting 3B in the AL, and is a decent, if not good, defensive player. If he's gone, and Posada regresses, the offense won't even be top third.

A-Rod is also one of the greatest bargains in the MLB. The Yankees are only paying him $16M a year ($6M less than Jeter). And A-Rod is almost certain to sign an extension that allows the Yankees to only have to pay $16M of his salary for each of the next three while Texas continues to pick up $11M per year. The Yankees will give him a 4 year $100M extension, which makes his total cost about $22M per year for the next seven years. It's unlikely any team is going to offer greater than a 7/$180M package for A-Rod's decline years of his thirties. Boras can't take the risk of losing the Yankees by opting out. He'll do his best to get another $20M or so, but they'll sign that extension. The Yankees will only have to tie up around 8% of their payroll over the next three years in a player who this year contributed close to 1/3 of their offensive outperformance, while being a plus defender. If for some reason I'm wrong and they lose him, it would be a huge mistake and set the team back years.

The Yankees main problem is their lousy pitching staff (ERA+ of 96). To win championships you need two top front line starters that can each pitch twice in a 7 game series, along with a deep bullpen. The Yankees don't have even one top starter now (Wang was #14 in the AL in ERA), and their bullpen is paper thin. They need to fix this without losing their offensive MVP.

Maybe the young guns will develop and fix this problem, but if they can shift Wang (ERA+ 117) to the number two spot by trading some prospects to sign Santana (ERA+ 140) as their ace, they suddenly have two strong starters to pitch four games in a short series. Is it worth giving up Joba or Hughes or ??? I don't know. If Joba is a 125 ERA+ starter next year, the problem is already solved, you just need to find some bullpen help.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

dc,

awesome analysis

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
dc,

awesome analysis

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, great post.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

So what does everyone think? Does Cashman really mean it when he says the Yankees absolutely won't sign A-Rod if he opts out, of is it just a bargaining ploy?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
So what does everyone think? Does Cashman really mean it when he says the Yankees absolutely won't sign A-Rod if he opts out, of is it just a bargaining ploy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds real to me. If they won't pony up enough to keep him from free agency with a 20 mill subsidy from Texas why would they put up more once he opts out?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
So what does everyone think? Does Cashman really mean it when he says the Yankees absolutely won't sign A-Rod if he opts out, of is it just a bargaining ploy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe any team will lock A-Rod up for 10 years at 33 mil a year as Boras apparently wants.

So, assume A-Rod walks -- do the Yankees try to bring Lowell back to pinstripes? He certainly shined in his walk year for the Saux... I can see the Yankees overspending on him.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]

So, assume A-Rod walks -- do the Yankees try to bring Lowell back to pinstripes? He certainly shined in his walk year for the Saux... I can see the Yankees overspending on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was saying yesterday when I said....

[ QUOTE ]


Its fine if the Yankees want to trim payroll. But you don't draw lines in the sand when it comes to Arod or potentially Johan. These are guys the Yankees should overpay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example

sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example

sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

[/ QUOTE ]

why would anyone do that?

seriously. matsui is a terrible fielder and an average DH - who wants him? and cabrera is a league average CF and below average corner outfielder.

what catcher do you want for that package? it is [censored] hard to find good catching. the yankees already have a nearly HOF caliber one - why give him up?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

[ QUOTE ]
to act as if the yankees can't put together a deal for a catcher is crazy....melky plus matsui (pay for alot of his deal) for a catcher could be one example


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have a catcher in mind? Someone who's defensive brilliance will make up for the lost offense?

2007 Catchers OPS
Posada .970
Martinez .879
Martin .843
Mauer .808
Varitek .787
McCann .772
Johjima .755
Zaun .752
Molina .731
Rodriquez .714
Pierzinski .712

Not that Posada will repeat his performance. But he's probably a decent bet to be over .800 next year. Maybe you keep Posada and find a catcher who can hit better than Molina to let Posada take more days off? And DH Posada more.

[ QUOTE ]

sign aaron rowand... our defense would be much improved

[/ QUOTE ]

Name Career OPS+ Range* Paycheck
Rowand 106 Subpar $4.3M
Cabrera 95 Great $0.4M

*(2007 RF9 CF)

So you think giving a 5 year $55M deal to Rowand and dumping Melky is going to improve the team? Is it because 23 year olds never improve and 30 year olds never decline?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

1. Make Mattingly the new manager. I bet posada leaves if it is a manager he doesn't like/gel with. Losing Rivera would be god awful so don't do anything stupid to offend him or piss him off. Also its a given in my view that Andy stays if Donnie is the coach.

2. See what it would take to get Santana in a deal involving Wang.

3. Trade Giambi...if you have to pay a large chunk of his salary then just do it...he's not worth the headache...the DH needs to be reserved for Damon/Matsui.

4. Trade Matsui or Damon somehow.

5. Sign Rowand to play the outfield with Abreu and Cabrera.

6. Re-sign Arod.

Shore up the bullpen.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

DesertCat:

I believe you switched those - Cabrera's range is subpar and Rowand's range is great.

Before the Yankees sign another CF, I'd like for that Damon deal to expire/come off the books. I'd also like to see if Cabrera develops any power. His trade value was much higher after last season, so dealing him this off-season seems foolish.