Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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If the Yankees trade Hughes or Joba for Santana I will stop being a fan.

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Johan projects way better for the next 5 years than either of them, and the money for the Yankees is irrelevant. why in the world wouldn't you want Johan for Hughes?

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One reason:

Hughes is 21.

Santana is 28.

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by the time Johan is in decline, Hughes will be a FA

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

If the Twins said that they would trade Johan for Hughes straight up I can't see any reason in the world why you would say no. I think if this was offered by the Twins and the Yankees didn't take it I would cry if I were a Yankee fan.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

1. They need starting pitching. I don't know how many times it needs to be shown that starting pitching is the key to success in the postseason. Time and time again it has been shown (with the Yankees as the prime example) that no matter how good your lineup is, starting pitching can shut it down.

2. Let A-Rod walk. Yes, he is arguably the best hitter in the MLB, but they don't need him. Their lineup is good enough. Sign a mediocre third baseman, or play Betemit everyday. Use the extra money to overpay for premier starting pitching.

3. If it comes to trading Hughes/Chamberlain for Santana, do it. Sure, Hughes and Chamberlain are studs, but we are talking about the BEST pitcher in the league at the age of 28.

4. Bye, Joe.

5. Hello, Joe.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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If the Yankees trade Hughes or Joba for Santana I will stop being a fan.

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Why? (Assuming Santana is signed long-term.)

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Because it's a stupid move. Both guys could turn out to have Santana-like dominance, and for a fraction of the price.

As for Pettitte, I said I could take him or leave him. I suspect he is coming back - he is good for pitching a lot of innings, a quality that's somewhat undervalued.

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Or both guys could turn out to be duds (we dont know how Joba will handle being a starter) wheres Santana has proven himself under pressure and is in his prime. And money shouldnt even be an argument here, the market for starting pitchers is way overinflated, so when it comes time to resign them even if they dont live up to expectiations you will likely be overpaying them.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Their lineup is good enough.

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How many more years are Damon, Abreu, Giambi, Matsui, Posada going to be effective? Jeter?

The only good young hitter is Cano.

I'd caution against thinking this lineup will produce the way it did this year for many more years.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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2. Let A-Rod walk. Yes, he is arguably the best hitter in the MLB, but they don't need him. Their lineup is good enough. Sign a mediocre third baseman, or play Betemit everyday. Use the extra money to overpay for premier starting pitching.

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Like who? Its fine to say we should spend Arod's cash on pitching. Where do we spend it?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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If the Yankees trade Hughes or Joba for Santana I will stop being a fan.

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Why? (Assuming Santana is signed long-term.)

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Because it's a stupid move. Both guys could turn out to have Santana-like dominance, and for a fraction of the price.

As for Pettitte, I said I could take him or leave him. I suspect he is coming back - he is good for pitching a lot of innings, a quality that's somewhat undervalued.

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Or both guys could turn out to be duds (we dont know how Joba will handle being a starter) wheres Santana has proven himself under pressure and is in his prime. And money shouldnt even be an argument here, the market for starting pitchers is way overinflated, so when it comes time to resign them even if they dont live up to expectiations you will likely be overpaying them.

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my head just exploded. how can you be overpaying them if that's the price set by the market? not everyone can be overpaying every pitcher past the age of 26 - that's a contradiction in terms.

as for letting a-rod walk - uh this lineup doesn't look all that good like this:

damon
jeter
abreu
matsui
posada
cano
betemit
1B (invariably some [censored]-hitting 1B)
cabrera

there's not that much power in that lineup. lot of guys who can hit 20 home runs but not many who can hit 30.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

the Yankees had 76 more real runs and 50 more imaginary equivalent runs than anyone else in the majors, they will be an elite offense with a decent 3b.

Arod money would be much better spent on Johan.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

plus its like ALL lefties

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Youre overpaying them because this years #3 pitchers are getting last years #1 pitcher money. There fore if you sign Johan to an extension next year youll be paying him the same amount that you would pay hughes in 2 years even if he is a #3 pitcher. Now I understand theres an age difference but thats why im saying money shouldnt be an issue when it comes to the decision of trading hughes for Johan.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

They will still get Johan if he wants to be a Yankee. No point in trading 5+ years of Hughes for 1 year of Santana.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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If the Yankees trade Hughes or Joba for Santana I will stop being a fan.

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Why? (Assuming Santana is signed long-term.)

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Because it's a stupid move. Both guys could turn out to have Santana-like dominance, and for a fraction of the price.

As for Pettitte, I said I could take him or leave him. I suspect he is coming back - he is good for pitching a lot of innings, a quality that's somewhat undervalued.

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Or both guys could turn out to be duds (we dont know how Joba will handle being a starter) wheres Santana has proven himself under pressure and is in his prime. And money shouldnt even be an argument here, the market for starting pitchers is way overinflated, so when it comes time to resign them even if they dont live up to expectiations you will likely be overpaying them.

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my head just exploded. how can you be overpaying them if that's the price set by the market? not everyone can be overpaying every pitcher past the age of 26 - that's a contradiction in terms.

as for letting a-rod walk - uh this lineup doesn't look all that good like this:

damon
jeter
abreu
matsui
posada
cano
betemit
1B (invariably some [censored]-hitting 1B)
cabrera

there's not that much power in that lineup. lot of guys who can hit 20 home runs but not many who can hit 30.

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That lineup looks like one of the best in the AL, and if the extra money is spent on pitching (I am thinking of options now, it will be more than fine.

Give me a few lineups in the MLB that are better than the one you just said.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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the Yankees had 76 more real runs and 50 more imaginary equivalent runs than anyone else in the majors, they will be an elite offense with a decent 3b.

Arod money would be much better spent on Johan.

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Factor in Posada's inevitable return to reality, and the 80 runs of VORP the Yankees would be losing with A-Rod, and the VORP drop with Damon playing all the time in left instead of Matsui, and the decline of nearly every other hitter not named Cabrera or Cano - yeah, somehow I don't think it is enough.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

here's a (probably ridiculous) thought:

it seems santana will only waive his NTC if he gets a nice extension... this the yankees can offer

trade wang for santana, straight up, and sign santana to an extension or something

the yanks get santana for many years to come and the twins get a good, top pitcher for a few years for rather cheap

that said, i like wang and don't really want this to happen... but i wouldnt be shocked if it did

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

What would Wang's ERA be pitching 15-20 times a year on turf?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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They will still get Johan if he wants to be a Yankee. No point in trading 5+ years of Hughes for 1 year of Santana.

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That's really big "If". If he is traded by Minnesota, it would likely be to a team that is willing to resign him. Right?

Also, while I'm not talking about Joba or Hughes specifically, people (fans/GMs) tend to have an overinflated view of a young pitcher's worth. Look at this discussion above. People are debating whether Johan freeekin Santana, perennial Cy Young quality pitcher in his prime, is enough value in return for a young pitcher. This YOUNG STUD HAS A CEILING THAT IS... SANTANA! I'm thinking back to all the young can't miss prospects who's value has plummeted due to injury and general ineffectiveness (off the top of my head... Wood, Prior, Penny, Clement, Harden, hell- Ed Yarnall) and wondering what people think about those prospects now. When it comes to prospects, you just don't know who will work out.

And salary is a factor, but not enough of a factor to a team with the budget of NY. To land the premier SP in the league (having a clean injury history and is 28) is obviously tremendously valuable to a team that makes the playoffs every year and needs a stud to win in a short series. Banking on a prospect to become that star is a gamble, while Santana is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

http://www.waswatching.com/archives/...back_at_1.html

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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here's a (probably ridiculous) thought:

trade wang for santana, straight up, and sign santana to an extension or something


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There may be riots in Minnesota if this trade happened. Pure speculation, of course.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Agree with your whole post Abreu.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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blunty, leave the baseball analysis to people who have a clue.

James

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What part of my analysis do you think is off?

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Just the first part:

1. Trade Hughes for Santana (I think Kennedy's a better pitcher anyway),

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Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Based on the games Ive watched them both pitch this year, Kennedy was the better pitcher both by the numbers and by the way they looked. Thats not 2 say Hughes doesnt have more potential, but potential isnt always lived up too.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Based on the games Ive watched them both pitch this year, Kennedy was the better pitcher both by the numbers and by the way they looked. Thats not 2 say Hughes doesnt have more potential, but potential isnt always lived up too.

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Did you miss the games when Hughes looked unhittable?

I like Kennedy as much as the next guy, but come on.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Prop bet on Hughes vs Kennedy next year?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Pettites whole "big game pitcher" reputation is rather amusing. He is good in the playoffs but nowhere what the media makes it out to be (although after game 2 they creamed themselves over him)
With that said hes still a good pitcher, better than any option theyll be able to aquire (unless they get santana) so I hope they keep him. Havibng 3 guys in the rotation with less than 20 combine starts is a recipe for disaster.
Posada is a horrendous defensive catcher. 36 year old catchers don't suddenly peak. I hope they dont give him any more than 2 years. He should also be getting a lot more time as the DH. Giambi is awful give posada his abs.
If they could get Rowand to play center move Cabrera to right.

If you could trade for santana only do it if you can sign him to an extension. Theres no point in givng up joba or hughes if theyre only going to have him for a year. However if they could sign him to an extension not giving up hughes would be a huge mistake. I can think of a ton top notch cant miss pitching prospects in the last 15 or so years that have ammounted to almost nothing in the majors for a variety of reasons.

Torre needs to go. The only manager who ever made him look smart is Phil Garner. He cant even use rivera correctly any more.

Finally Rivera. If he walks Im canceling my season ticket plan plain and simple.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I didnt, but Hughes was very eratic , He looked brilliant 1 games, absolutly horrible the next. Kennedy was very solid and consistant in all his outings even though they were few. At this point we cant debate on whose the better pitcher, we can all agree Hughes has more potential, Im just not very high on power pitchers until they prove themselves.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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If the Yankees trade Hughes or Joba for Santana I will stop being a fan.

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Johan projects way better for the next 5 years than either of them, and the money for the Yankees is irrelevant. why in the world wouldn't you want Johan for Hughes?

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One reason:

Hughes is 21.

Santana is 28.

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Reason 2:

you still have a shot at Santana/Sabathia after 2008 as FA.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I desperately want to see Hughes, Joba and Kennedy in the rotation next year. I can live with them learning on the job.

The only thing that worries me is innings. I assume at least Joba will have an innings cap next year (he's never thrown more than 120 in a season) and maybe Hughes too (about 150 last year, but only 110 this year).

We all saw this year that the middle relief is a disaster. They have to find a couple of reliable arms if two of the five starters are going to be 6-inning guys.

I also really hope Pettitte comes back and they find something to do with Mussina other than start him every five days.

As for Santana, I'm under the impression that he's not going to sign an extension at this point and he wants to test the market. I'd much rather wait a year and sign him when half the roster becomes free agents (Pettitte, Mussina, Giambi, Pavano, Farnsworth) than trade for him.

I'll happily take the lumps that come with starting three rookies this year if it means a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Joba, Wang and Kennedy next year.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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blunty, leave the baseball analysis to people who have a clue.

James

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What part of my analysis do you think is off?

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Just the first part:

1. Trade Hughes for Santana (I think Kennedy's a better pitcher anyway),

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Thankyou, at least someone else thought that was completely F'ing ridiculous. Kennedy has had success in the minors, and had success with his late-season starts for NY but man you're putting WAAAYYYYY too much stock in him.

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If this list were based entirely on pure stuff, Kennedy wouldn't make it.

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Kennedy doesn't have a plus pitch. His best offering is a changeup that would grade as a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his 89-91 mph fastball, his curveball and slider are all average.

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Does anyone know how guys like this are projected to perform over a season in most cases?

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But he has well above-average command, and his feel for pitching and ability to locate all four pitches make them play up.

FSL managers were extremely impressed by Kennedy's approach. He throws all four pitches in any count, he doesn't get rattled and he always seems to be a step ahead of hitters.

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Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

Many baseball "experts" (Baseball America being one) still suspect that the hamstring injury was affecting Hughes' performance when he came back.

Hughes is a guy who threw 91-95 throughout the minors with a plus plus curve and a plus changeup. This year (specifically after his injury) he was basically 89-92, with an above average, but not great, curve. His changeup was not used significantly.

Many believe with the time off + a normal routine heading into next year, his stuff will be back to what it was. If it does, he will be discussed before Joba.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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I didnt, but Hughes was very eratic , He looked brilliant 1 games, absolutly horrible the next.

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Jesus, what did you expect from him? He didn't turn 21 until the end of June, but he had the second best WHIP on the entire staff among pitchers with more than 30 innings (behind Rivera). 7.35 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9. What more do you want?

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reason 3, hughes costs you an order of magnitude less.

Given how good and cheap hughes and joba are, and how many teams will be competing for santana, I dont see how the yankees would ever trade for him, doesnt make sense.

also, hughes is 21, has only pitched 72 ml innings, most of which were after an injury which he has all summer to recuperate from. Who gives a [censored] if his ERA is over 4. Also, if I remember will carrolls columns correctly, the injury he had is a type that is unlikely to recur or have lasting effects.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

BTW, I think it's a lock Rivera and Posada will be back, thank god. And I'd be stunned if they sign a center fielder. Melky earned the job.

I also think A-Rod will be back. The fans seemed to accept him much more this year. Like I posted somewhere else, he didn't get booed in the playoffs. He got "M-V-P" chants. Every single thing he's said this year has indicated he wants to stay.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Every single thing he's said this year has indicated he wants to stay.

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As opposed to him repeatedly saying throughout this year that he wants out? That would have made his life much easier.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

The only other way I can see the outfield going is:

don't pick up abreu's option... sign hunter, move melky to right

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

moving cabrera to right is a horrible idea

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

it's not my idea, i'm just saying i could see it happening

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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Every single thing he's said this year has indicated he wants to stay.

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As opposed to him repeatedly saying throughout this year that he wants out? That would have made his life much easier.

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Why do people around here always act like this? Do you really think there's nothing in between what you said and what I said and there are no other possibilities, or did you just want to make a pointless smartass, sarcastic comment?

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I also think that rivera posada and arod will be back. The arod thing could go either way of course, but this year was totally different than his first 3, and if arod is smart and wants to win a ring new york is definitely his best chance with the direction the team is going right now. NY of course has all the money in the world, and I'd be suprised to see him switch teams again. If he is smart he will realize that he will get the same unrealistic and absurd expectations everywhere (his clubhouse cancer rep was around WAY before he came to new york, the only thing that will change that is winning). I think the whole business with the FO saying they would resign him if he opted out was just a bluff, they at least had to try to get a deal where texas would pay a lot of the money. Obviously Boras would never, ever fall for that and just said LOL.

They will definitely end up overpaying for posada, but I am not even that bothered about it. Of course he going to decline, possibly by a huge amount, but given how long he has played for the yankees, how much everyone loves him, is it really worth taking the risk and having to find another catcher to replace him to save a couple mil a year? I just love jorge too much to be annoyed about this I guess.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

I'm not trying to be a smartass. I apologize if I came across that way.

I would really like to know what other options he has when making comments about his future. The focus is on him all the time. Imagine the commotion it would create if he even hinted at wanting to leave? His season, and the Yankees season, would probably be over.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

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I'm not trying to be a smartass. I apologize if I came across that way.

I would really like to know what other options he has when making comments about his future. The focus is on him all the time. Imagine the commotion it would create if he even hinted at wanting to leave? His season, and the Yankees season, would probably be over.

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He could have said the same thing everyone else always does: "I'm not going to talk about my contract until the season is over."

Instead he said things like (I spent 1 minutes googling this):

"You're asking me what my sincere feeling is. I want to 100 percent stay in New York. Period. That's it. I don't know how many ways I can say it."

"I want to be here. I want to stay here."

"I want to be in New York. This is the place I want to finish my career. That's it. We had options and we all know that, but I want to be in New York. That's it."

"I want to stay in New York, no matter what."

"I kept saying it this winter. I love New York. It's the greatest place for me to play."

"My wife loves New York. Our daughter [Natasha] is in music classes and [Cynthia] loves Central Park. She wants to be there for a long time."


That sounds like a lot more than just trying to say the right thing. Either he's a flat out liar, or he really wants to stay. If the Yankees want him to stay, they can pay him the most money and he wants to stay, I don't see how he's going to leave.

Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
 

So what about the bullpen?

Hopefully they find someone to take Farnsworth. Maybe the Igawa for Meredith rumor can be revived? Francisco Cordero is a free agent. In a perfect world they could convince him to set up Mariano, but that seems like a real long shot. Vizcaino is also a free agent. I'd like to see him back, but with the way his arm was treated his year should we expect a decline?

If they can add a top notch setup guy and a reliable middle guy to this, I'd be happy:

Rivera
Edwar
Britton
Ohlendorf

There are also some options in the minors that could be ready later in the season like David Robertson, Scott Patterson. Sanchez and Cox could be ready by the end of the year. And I think Horne could be a really good reliever if they convert him. He's obviously blocked as a starter, so I hope they give it a shot.

Edit: Scott Linebrink is also a free agent.