Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

I really like this thread guys. I think it will help me drastically.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Lol, and thanks for the quick reply.

I was confused by OP's original point as he stated no specific conclusion at the end and I didnt wanna read his stats paragraphs.

I never realized the importance of line shopping vs. a solid capping system and just assumed the latter was more pivotal.

However, you two have not touched on the nuances of line shopping in regrads to movement based on public/sharp betting. How can one be sure if we wait for a better line it will not move against us?

Also, line shopping only becomes critical AFTER correct capping, right? I don't think fading a high volume poster on here would be +EV in terms of which way to lean.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

Please define fading.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

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Please define fading.

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betting the opposite of someone's plays.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

someone is betting seriously and only using B&M? is this 1991? do some casinos offer -105 or something special these days that I don't know about?

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

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Please define fading.

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betting the opposite way of a person's picks

basically, I had no faith in that person's abilities

in retrospect, I think that poster might know enough about the sport to be a successful handicapper at it but it's still too early to tell


I would've made much more so far had I line shopped following that poster's picks instead of fading them.


However, this makes the point I'm trying to make even stronger. Here, I'm taking the side exactly opposite of someone who may be a positive handicapper. With 5-10 minutes of work line shopping every Sunday morning before kickoffs, I've been able to get the same record and make more money on less units bet. Line shopping the opposite side has overcome a handicapper who has picked above .500 and turned a profit.



I'm not even a good line shopper.
I only used a handful (about 8) of grade A rated books for this exercise.


Ideally, one wants to be all of a good capper, a good line shopper, and good at reading line movements.

This exercise is somewhat showing that line shopping > capping.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

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And here I thought the name of that system actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Definitely means something if one looks--it gives away exactly what I've been doing

Inimcal NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates


in·im·i·cal
–adjective
2. unfriendly; hostile: a cold, inimical gaze.

NFL
-National Football League

al·go·rithm
–noun a set of rules for solving a problem in a finite number of steps, as for finding the greatest common divisor.

spot·ting
-23. to detect or recognize; locate or identify by seeing: to spot a hiding child.

sys·tem·at·ic
–adjective 1. having, showing, or involving a system, method, or plan: a systematic course of reading; systematic efforts.
2. given to or using a system or method; methodical: a systematic person.
3. arranged in or comprising an ordered system: systematic theology.
4. concerned with classification: systematic botany.
5. pertaining to, based on, or in accordance with a system of classification: the systematic names of plants.

Addle-pate
n. A foolish or dull-witted fellow. [Colloq.]






Also, look at the backwards acronym
it felt appropriate though slighty mean given the context of the experiment

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

line shopping > capping > line movements

but shopping is much easier than capping so therefore more time and discussion should be spent on capping

to be any good at line moves you have to watch the markets all day and figure out when the big bettors are putting money down; it is hardly worth the hassle. to me line movements is about being ready for those big bettors, and reacting properly at your key books after the big boys act, which ties right back into line shopping.

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

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POTY in this forum for multiple reasons

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I figured out the name a few weeks back and always lol

Re: Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
 

[ QUOTE ]
line shopping > capping > line movements


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I disagree. I think that what MT2R said is correct you need to be all three. Its extremely easy to determine who the sharp side is, and who the big money is on. From there, you use your capping to figure out why they are on it and if you agree with it. Once you agree or disagree, you go find the best line. I dont rank anything above anything else. People make money doing all three seperately. However, if you can combine all 3, then you doing extremely well for yourself.

FWIW, I 1000% dont sit around all day and watch lines. Thats the "old" way.