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-   -   Implied odds with one to come (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=539079)

Nougat 11-05-2007 05:20 PM

Implied odds with one to come
 
If I wanted to make a calculation of the necessary amount of money to extract from my opponent by evaluating my implied odds against my current call, would the following very rough process work?:

Given that Hero has an inside straight draw and it is of a given four cards such that the villain's hand does not include the necessary rank to make the straight, a call of 50 into a pot of 150 requires a minimum expectation of 438 additional value from the villain if you hit your hand. By crossmultiplying (50/x)=(4/47) where x is defined as the value in the pot, I get x=587.5 and then subtract the size of the current pot (150) to determine the additional amount I need to get in the pot in order to call the initial 50.

Is that the proper way to calculate such things? Assume arguendo that I am drawing to the nuts and thus cannot be bested if I make my hand (odds to win=odds to make my draw).

BruceZ 11-05-2007 06:05 PM

Re: Implied odds with one to come
 
[ QUOTE ]
If I wanted to make a calculation of the necessary amount of money to extract from my opponent by evaluating my implied odds against my current call, would the following very rough process work?:

Given that Hero has an inside straight draw and it is of a given four cards such that the villain's hand does not include the necessary rank to make the straight, a call of 50 into a pot of 150 requires a minimum expectation of 438 additional value from the villain if you hit your hand. By crossmultiplying (50/x)=(4/47) where x is defined as the value in the pot, I get x=587.5 and then subtract the size of the current pot (150) to determine the additional amount I need to get in the pot in order to call the initial 50.

Is that the proper way to calculate such things? Assume arguendo that I am drawing to the nuts and thus cannot be bested if I make my hand (odds to win=odds to make my draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. Since you defined x so that it does not include your call of 50, the equation must be 50/x = 4/43 = outs/non-outs. Then x = 537.5, and you subtract 150 from this to get 387.5 extra money. Note that 43:4 are the odds against making your hand and equals the pot odds that you would need if there were no implied odds. Pot odds are always defined as the ratio of the bet you must call to the net amount you will win.

You could also use your original equation if you define x so that it includes your call of 50. Then you would solve for x = 587.5, and then subtract 200 from x to get 387.5 for extra amount you need to win.


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