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-   -   Why don't the sports books just move the line? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554896)

asdfasdf32 11-26-2007 04:18 PM

Why don\'t the sports books just move the line?
 
What's the reasoning behind sites giving, let's say -3 at -150, instead of just moving the line to a higher number? They're basically saying they think the -3 is too low, so why don't they just up the line? Is it because some bettors will see a line they think is too low and bet on it anyways despite the 50% juice? And the high juice is more profitable to the sports book than moving the line?

Sorry for what may be a newb question, but alas, I am new to sports betting.

Thremp 11-26-2007 04:23 PM

Re: Why don\'t the sports books just move the line?
 
It can be for risk management purposes to avoid getting sided on a number.

asdfasdf32 11-26-2007 04:27 PM

Re: Why don\'t the sports books just move the line?
 
[ QUOTE ]
It can be for risk management purposes to avoid getting sided on a number.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm understanding you correctly, wouldn't upping the line do the same thing?

Thremp 11-26-2007 04:33 PM

Re: Why don\'t the sports books just move the line?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It can be for risk management purposes to avoid getting sided on a number.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm understanding you correctly, wouldn't upping the line do the same thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Take an example of a ton of action on the 3... They are getting off action on one side pushing the juice up from where it was opened. If they move to 2.5 and get uneven action, they expose themselves to the game landing on the three and pushing those bets and now having to pay out a larger amount. By keeping the spread on the 3, they can control risk by offsetting their uneven position (if in fact its the reason to move it) without running the risk of being exposed if it goes poorly.

This also applies to large MLs wrt risk management.

Holybull 11-26-2007 04:36 PM

Re: Why don\'t the sports books just move the line?
 
3 is a very key number that historically many final scores land on. If the books move off of 3, they're at risk of the game landing on exactly 3 and pushing 3's and losing a lot on one of the sides.

By keeping 3 and changing the juice, they try to even out the action without running that risk.

Edit: In other words, what Thremp said.


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