Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

This is a situation in which I used to routinely check the river, but I'm not convinced it's the best play anymore. Any thoughts?

This was my first hand and my opponent is completely unknown.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls

4th Street - (7.10 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (4.55 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.55 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.55 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

This would be opponent dependent, right?
If you can count on a raise meaning you are beat, then I think you can value bet here. If villain is capable of bluff raising you, though, then you may have to call two bets, and that would make this expensive the times villain has improved.

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

[ QUOTE ]
This would be opponent dependent, right?
If you can count on a raise meaning you are beat, then I think you can value bet here. If villain is capable of bluff raising you, though, then you may have to call two bets, and that would make this expensive the times villain has improved.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think all but the laggiest villains would have a tough time value raising you here with Q's up since you basically told him on 3rd st you had split A's. You'd have to pay off trip Q's, but you hit one yourself on the end so there's only one out for you to worry about.

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

So you are saying you call a raise, but a raise won't happen that often?

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

Do you guys think an unimproved pair of queens is really going to call here?

Would anyone else not put in the last raise on 3rd? I might just call his reraise and leave some doubt in his mind that I had Aces. Maybe even let him take the lead and put in a check-raise on fifth?

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you guys think an unimproved pair of queens is really going to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. And queens up are probably going to call if we bet and bet if we check . . .

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

I definitely lean towards betting here. Queens will pay off, and if he has two pair, one bet is going in one way or another.

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

I basically always bet here.

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying you call a raise, but a raise won't happen that often?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. A raise here will almost always mean a bluff or a freak monster hand. Even tho you have repped AA the whole way, villain is getting 10:1 to call you with Q's and hope you're a lagtard running cold. If he raises with Q's up he's getting 1:1 that you're a maniac or your A's never improved.

Re: Betting unimproved pairs on the river.
 

I likely betting rivers with one pair very much. This is not a situation where I would do it however. You;re 3rd street play and subsequent street play revealed your hand as AA at minimum. Only a moron would call the river with less.