Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I would argue that 'well adjusted', quality poker pros don't go busto. The ones with gambling problems, the borderline OCD's that are always pushing the boundaries and need to (quoting Bear) "get their juices going", are the ones flip flopping between hot streaks and going busto.


.Z

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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Coke is a helluva drug.

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QFT

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i really isnt

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Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

IMO, Any player who has the $ to play at the stakes where the general public would know them as a big name poker player, is an action junkie and won't stop, ever, unless they happen to go broke.

Sorry if someone else has already said this, I couldn't be bothered to read the whole thread.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Going "busto" would definitely not be cool.

Hey.....
speaking of "cool"....
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Going "busto" would definitely not be cool.

Hey.....
speaking of "cool"....
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

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LOL, in answer to OP it's people like BoostedJ that won one donkament (but are terrible cash players) that donate back to the better regs like CTS, PA, aba, JMan etc. who will never move down because of their ego.

That will eventually bust them

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

there are 2 types of players......

Players that are Busto, and players that Yukon likes.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about Nikki Jedlicka specifically? I think a number of 2p2ers have a lot of respect for his game, and I KNOW Phil Ivey does. From what I've read it was a $1.1m downswing (rumored to be since he signed with FTP) that busted his online BR and has him saying he isn't planning on redepositing anytime soon. Was he just playing too high the whole time (during his $2m+ upswing AND $1m downswing? What is it with so many HS players (DB comes to mind) living the high life one day, and seemingly crippled the next?

[/ QUOTE ]Kai's upswing was more like $4 million, went from being down $1/2 million at high stakes PLO to up $3.5 million. I think he is actually a long term winner at $200/$400 (losing players don't tend to have 100 buyin upswings even in PLO) he has just lost some confidence after his first monster downswing.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

ego

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Another reason: Easy access to loans + "moral hazard"


It seems that top live pros loan each other money all the time. Thus, good players can borrow to rebuild their bankroll.

Furthermore, there is what economists call a "moral hazard" effect -- if I know I can just borrow money from someone if I go bust, then I'm actually more likely to go bust because I'll play more recklessly.

A broke player then borrows and plays in "rebuild" mode til he's back in black.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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For the most part (Jamie Gold excluded), these are not stupid people.

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lol at Gold being excluded

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Going "busto" would definitely not be cool.

Hey.....
speaking of "cool"....
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats it like having one joke?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

The REAL reason is they start playing me HU4rollz

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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gotta get it gotta have it once i got it i'm a spend it then it's back to doing any damn thing just to get it.

AMIRITE?!?

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yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeea

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Going "busto" would definitely not be cool.

Hey.....
speaking of "cool"....
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats it like having one joke?

[/ QUOTE ]
You are incorrect. I have 2 jokes now. Please scroll up to read the new one... I must admit though, i bought that last joke off my buddy for 100 play money chips on FTP.

Hey....
speaking of "bought"...
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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how about; poker is nearly impossible to beat long term? its gambling, brosephs. stu unger was a savant, he could beat the game. phil ivey, chip reese, etc, im awed by their ability and their stamina and their discipline but i guarantee you that they go broke just as fast as anyone else if the rivers dont go there way enough times.

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Huh?

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Yeah, one of the more clueless posts I've read in quite awhile.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling.

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Hmmm. I have to admit this is kind of interesting stuff that surprisingly I haven't heard mentioned anywhere else.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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warrant's analogy is flawed.

It may be true that poker players reach a ceiling above which they can't effectively use their bankroll (rolled for one level, have excess cash that they can't use to play the next level responsibly, because their edge there is too small is doesn't exist). But those players should simply find their level, play for income, and invest the excess in a market where they don't have that problem.

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This doesn't mean his analogy is flawed at all. Go back to the original post, including the original title - "top" players.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I would say that one reason is probably the fact that you put "top" in quotes. I believe there are many pros that we've never heard of and they make a fine living. However it's not the $10 mil per year high profile tournament living we might think of.

Having said that, there are probably some other pros such as Negreanu and Hellmuth who make smart business decisions - as someone else mentioned, they are low variance - such as sponsorhip deals. (Tiger Woods even knows there is less variance in this sort of income than in golf!)

A "top" pro, as you say, means.... what? You're calling them a "top" pro, which I assume means you know they might not be "top" after all, but are simply "famous" (for now, for some reason.)

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.



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This is a very important point and one that exposes a flaw in the poker buy-in system.

As a former sports bettor, I'll explain one bankroll system that addresses the above problem. When making a sport wager, instead of betting on each game with a standard dollar amount, you bet a % of your entire bankroll. Say 1.5% for each game (other rules in the system control the amount of games you wager on and how much % of your total bankroll is at stake at any one time but that's not the point). By wagering a % of your bankroll, when you're winning, you win more and when you're losing you're losing less. It's all proportional.

With poker's typical 100bb buy-in, you cannot manage your roll the same way. The result is what warrant showed above.

Maybe using a % br system and playing 1 level up (not fully stacked) would allow for good br management.

Regarding the OP's question. I think the problem is that at low/mid stakes, there is still a wide range of skill level which is more profitable. The poker economy is a pyramid where all the cash goes to the top. The field of players at the high stakes level is much smaller and the difference in skill is not as wide. That means it's more of a gamble as your edges are smaller than it was at the lower games. More gamble + higher stakes is a recipe for bust.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Going "busto" would definitely not be cool.

Hey.....
speaking of "cool"....
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats it like having one joke?

[/ QUOTE ]
You are incorrect. I have 2 jokes now. Please scroll up to read the new one... I must admit though, i bought that last joke off my buddy for 100 play money chips on FTP.

Hey....
speaking of "bought"...
I heard that Brad Booth bought into that high stakes poker tv show with A Cool Million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I supposed to say ''lol'' or something now? I'm confused.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Margaud wrote:

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Maybe using a % br system and playing 1 level up (not fully stacked) would allow for good br management.

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Isn't this essentially the Jesus Experiment?

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Regarding the OP's question. I think the problem is that at low/mid stakes, there is still a wide range of skill level which is more profitable. The poker economy is a pyramid where all the cash goes to the top. The field of players at the high stakes level is much smaller and the difference in skill is not as wide. That means it's more of a gamble as your edges are smaller than it was at the lower games. More gamble + higher stakes is a recipe for bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point. imo, it's this combination of very little easy $ floating around in these HSNL/PLO tables and a self-destructive EGO that keeps these players from moving down to a level where they can easily make a wealthy living and still feel comfortable playing that those stakes after even the biggest of downswings.

I personally do not gamble in any way, other than with the luck involved in poker. I really can't level with the mindset of enormous flips, the pit, or even playing above and outside reasonable BR management in order to keep the game enjoyable. As far as I'm concerned this degenerate behavior is the single biggest leak in any poker player's game - thriving on the action.

....if there were only a way for disciplined (the real top players) to take advantage of these degens flips and HS pit games etc....casinos ftw

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about Nikki Jedlicka specifically? I think a number of 2p2ers have a lot of respect for his game, and I KNOW Phil Ivey does. From what I've read it was a $1.1m downswing (rumored to be since he signed with FTP) that busted his online BR and has him saying he isn't planning on redepositing anytime soon. Was he just playing too high the whole time (during his $2m+ upswing AND $1m downswing? What is it with so many HS players (DB comes to mind) living the high life one day, and seemingly crippled the next?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a 3,2 mil up-swing, this was after he started taking shots at the 200$/400$ PLO Tables at FTP, playing his A+ Game, really being completely focused.
After he was winning like crazy for approx. 2 months, it got hard to concentrate, since winning 300k in one session got a little boring.
So he started to get bored while playing, tilting some money off, the stakes simply didn't mean much to him.
That's when he started to make bad decisions, get unlucky, get "shy" on the poker tables, which enabled players, who have been at the top for such a long time, to take advantage of him, getting 1,1 mil back, this down-swing started right after he signed up with FTP, playing under Niki Jedlicka.
He has now 0,00 $ on FTP, and doesn't plan to start playing anytime soon.

This is ofcourse not the entire truth, but as much as I find out by googling / reading his blog / chatting with him.

-Kami

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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full tilt- oh look this kai buxxe has played high stakes for a couple of weeks, lets sign him up.

It's hardly like he's had good results for a couple of years i.e aba, PA, Durrr

I guess a lot of poker players lose sight of the real value of money and just piss it away thinking they can win it back

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Fulltilt has offered PA sponsorships numerous times. He declined all. He is affiliated with Martin De Kniff European site.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Here is another poker pro who bit the dust. Online limit holdem specialist who was fairly arrogant when he was moving up. He even wrote a poker book, the short handed section was considered pretty good.

Poker Chronicles

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I think skill is over rated in poker and varience has the ability to bust the so called pros. Lots of players have had long term luck in the game and are considered top players far too early in the game. I find it hard to understand where all the money comes from in the high stake games (especially online) when ~80% is apparently full time and winning player.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

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Here is another poker pro who bit the dust. Online limit holdem specialist who was fairly arrogant when he was moving up. He even wrote a poker book, the short handed section was considered pretty good.

Poker Chronicles

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Most enjoyable paragraph I've read in a long time (from your PC link)

"Another thing to understand is that in poker you can't fake it, or at least you shouldn’t. If you're a writer, or an accountant, or a lawyer, or have just about any other occupation I can think of, you can phone it in when you need to and nothing too bad will happen. You can go to work, fly under the radar for a day, not be your fully productive self, and you'll still get paid. They won't cancel your health insurance and you'll still accrue your vacation time. It's likely nobody will even notice, and if they did, they might be understanding, since everyone is in that position sooner or later. At some jobs you can get away with this for days at a time, and a lot of people make entire careers out of it. "

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

Bad bankroll management mixed with a poor conception of their own abilities.

100k hands of positive variance / aggressive bankroll management and a guy could go from playing 2/4 to 50/100 or even higher in a very short period of time. They're not going to have much of a grasp on reality when things stop going their way.

It should be practically impossible to bust your bankroll when playing at a reasonable level. There's so many levels to move down to. The only reason is arrogance.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

overconfidence, moving up too fast, being a degen.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

degenerate gamblers

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here is another poker pro who bit the dust. Online limit holdem specialist who was fairly arrogant when he was moving up. He even wrote a poker book, the short handed section was considered pretty good.

Poker Chronicles

[/ QUOTE ]

ive read his blog for years. im not sure where you are getting your info that he went bust. he simply burnt out and quit afaik.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

I'm not going to mention any names but a lot of the ones I played with live beyond their means. One of them comes to mind who was a regular monster in the 300/600 games and spent all of his money on cars, drugs, TV's, Jewelry, etc... He's looking for backers now.

Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to mention any names but a lot of the ones I played with live beyond their means. One of them comes to mind who was a regular monster in the 300/600 games and spent all of his money on cars, drugs, TV's, Jewelry, etc... He's looking for backers now.

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then your in the wrong forum!