NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
I am certain I have the best hand. What is your bid here regarding river bet and why?
I have some ideas of my own here but I'd like to see what you guys think first. Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Cash Game $0.25/$0.50 Blinds 6 Players Lego Poker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> <font color="black">SB: $54.90</font> <font color="green">Hero (BB): $50</font> <font color="green">UTG: $44.25</font> <font color="black">MP: $50.75</font> <font color="black">CO: $61.90</font> BTN: $48.25 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.75, 6 Players) UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks <font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.50, 5 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, UTG calls $2, 3 folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6.50, 2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4 <font color="black">River:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14.50, 2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets ? |
Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too.
BTW, your Star's pic is intimidating. |
Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river.
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Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
I'd probably go for something around $10 and pray he will call with a Q or whatever. I'm betting only 2/3-pot because it's a limped pot and villains range looks like [censored] to me. If he has a real hand all the money is going in anyway.
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Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
bets 8.
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Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
If he's moderately aggressive, I fake block for 7-8. Against a loose/passive I imagine overbet shove would work well since you only need to get called 22% of the time to do better than than a $8 bet.
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Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
Sklansky says that if there is no typical second best hand that would call a small bet then pushing is better. A huge overbet has the same effect on these weak hands (they fold) but in the odd chance that villian slowplayed a monster you cash in big.
I would add to that that at uNL huge overbets are frequently seen as a bluff and some opponents are more likely to call an overbet than a regular one. So the only question is if there are hands that villian could have that call a small bet. I think many Ts are in villian's range, although unlikely as 3 Ts are accounted for. These hands would call a small value bet. However, they might call a push, too. Hands like K9 A9 would be consistent with villian's play much more than any Q. These hands probably won't call any value bet. Same for small pocket pairs. |
Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
[ QUOTE ]
There are no likely smallish made hands to extract from. I think you can play him solely for trips or better so I push and pray he has a straight or lower boat. Trips will call enough too. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd like to hear some thoughts on shoving this river. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts are along these lines as well: Villain will either fold regardless of what we bet - or he had either a ten on the flop or made some sort of straight on the turn. I lean towards a shove. Results in white: <font color="white"> FWIW villain was your average 20/13 TAG and instacalled a PSB on the river with AT</font> |
Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
push.
Tx will call and you beat every single T out there. unless villain is very aggro he's never raising this river without a boat - and a boat will always call a push. He might even decide you are bluffing and call with 2pair or AQ. I think if he has a T he calls a push at least 70% of the time - you are leaving a ton of value on the table trying to work out the best size to bet to get value from KQ J9 and the few other small hands he might call a value bet with but would fold to a push. Almost nobody folds rivered trips here. |
Re: NL50 - boat up on the river - betsizing
I thought about shoving when I saw this hand,
then I realised I almost never shove, I think its a small leak of mine. Great post matrix and triggerle! |
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