Help me understand this weird line
 

At one of my books, the spread for both the Indy game and the Dallas game is

-7 (-110)

The moneyline for the Indy/Jax game is -320/+260
The moneyline for the Dallas/GB game is -275/+225

Both home teams are favorites. I don't understand why the MLs are so different. According to sbrforums, +7 (-110) is roughly equivalent to -311/+260 moneylines. Therefore, it looks like there is a ton of value in hammering the Dallas ML.

What forces are at play here? The books do seem to be begging for GB money ATS.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

The current MLs are

IND -275/+255 Pinny -268/+256 MB
DAL -285/+265 Pinny -278/+266 MB

which are very close. It looks like you just have a book hanging off-center lines that are protected by the huge juice. The MLs may be lower than average MLs for those spreads because of the high totals (Dal 51, IND 45, average 40-41).

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

[ QUOTE ]
The MLs may be lower than average MLs for those spreads because of the high totals (Dal 51, IND 45, average 40-41).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah yeah, I tend to forget to incorporate that into my thinking. Thanks.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

thanks for the brain teaser

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

Put 2.9u down on Dallas -275 (Don't ask. I wanted to risk 2.66u to win 1u and ended up looking at the payout instead.)

Put 0.5u down on Jax +260.

going solely on the fact that the lines are well of pinny/MB, although I think I forget to take juice into account. Oh well, still learning.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

Don't forget that when the public is on an underdog it prefers taking the ML over the points.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that when the public is on an underdog it prefers taking the ML over the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Most lines are set that taking the ML is a better investment than taking the points I thought. That seems counterintuitive.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

Try going up to ten people who you would consider squares and ask if they would rather have GB +7 or GB +265.

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

[ QUOTE ]
Try going up to ten people who you would consider squares and ask if they would rather have GB +7 or GB +265.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume that's true for the sake of argument. Why do the books offer more favorable moneylines on underdogs than they do on the spread?

Re: Help me understand this weird line
 

No one has mentioned yet:

The Packers are a "square" team.