PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

Comments on any street appreciated.
Edit - Villain had just sat down - no information.


Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $432
UTG+1: $546.45
MP1: $226.80
MP2: $278.25
MP3: $549.30
CO: $240
Hero: $162.60
SB: $474.75
BB: $398.55

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($46, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($106, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">CO bets $28</font>

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

Wierd bet on the turn...Less than what was bet on the flop...No reads that's a tough one...

What can he call on the flop and lead at on the turn?? ESPECIALLY with a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn...It's tough to see that the 2 coulda helped his hand in any way...A push here isn't a good play IMO unless you are OK with dealing with variance because I don't believe you have any fold equity with the pot being at $134 + $110 = $244, he only has to call another $84 on top...He'd have to be on a stone cold bluff not to call that...

And that's the tough thing about playing with a short stack, you can't create any fold equity in a hand... If you had a full stack your raise would be more and commit him to his chip stack instead of vice-versa...

You have enough outs to call this bet and use your position to determine what to do next...I'd call a river shove from him if any non-5 low hit...I'm expecting him to have some sort of 2 pair hand, K4/K2 type hand...So I'd also call if a 9 hit...

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

Preflop: Good AA hands like the HU Action.
Flop: Bet pot, the nut bluff+AA is almost the nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had just sat down

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn: Push, make a note:
-We're never far enough behind here (sometimes ahead) to fold to an unknown.
-We may fold out a better hand (very unlikely, but a 2345ss could in theory fold here)
-Our hand has showdown value
-Meta Game: We won't be pushed around.

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

You are geting 2:1 odds on a hand that has probably around 50% equity vs villian.
All in and its not even close you dirty shortstacker.

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

Against two pair plus the NLD your are a 2-1 dog. Shove.

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

All of this banter about what your equity is is not relevant if CO's money goes in on the river irrespective of what the river is, because you have position.

I know you have no read. He seems to have $162 left after the bet. If you call, the pot is $162 coincidentally. My guess is that, if you call and hit on the river, and bet the pot, he may fold. So perhaps you can minraise here. This will make the pot big enough and his stack small enough that a bet on the river may be more likely to get a call. Should he re-raise your turn raise, fine. And maybe he even folds to the min-raise as maybe the $28 was a bald steal attempt. I see little reason to give up your position here by shoving this draw.

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

[ QUOTE ]
All of this banter about what your equity is is not relevant if CO's money goes in on the river irrespective of what the river is, because you have position.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMHO the real problem lies in where our equity is, villian's 1/2 pot flop call &amp; 1/4 pot bet could mean a lot of things: Any 2 Pair, Wheel wrap, set, NLD+TP/Cold NLD, monster A3KK/99/a34k, a steal, etc. etc. etc. In all likelyhood however it's not something awesome, as I feel most villians (unknown or known) would check-raise push a flopped set/JTQXss, &amp; I would assume even top 2. So our equity is important since pushing also eliminates getting outplayed on a dodgy river (any board pair/hearts/TJQ/5).
-
If you're calling this turn, what's you're calling range for a full pot on the river?
-
Can you still fold a river for the pot after a min-raise/villian call?

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

all in

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

Pot the flop. As played, all in on the turn.

Re: PLO8 400 - AAQ5 HU from the button
 

[ QUOTE ]
Against two pair plus the NLD your are a 2-1 dog. Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I firt plugged this in to twodimes, this is what it gave me. Today it says its .725 to .275. I guess im gonna have to calculate this by hand when I get home.

Has anyone else ever had this happen?