my best stock pick ever
 

Alright, in the spirit of joviality and as part of my public humiliation here is my TRULY best stock pick ever.

Award for most savaged/beaten down reinsurer goes to Monpelier Re (MRH)!

I DEFINTIELY picked this up as a hurricane play, assuming the market had overreacted to the risk, whoops!

Actually, this is probably not a terrible pick right now what with the low valuation, rising rates, and their considerable experience, but it sure hurt when I held it before!

https://chart.etrade.com/graphs/NOW.MRH.d09.dl.gif

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

If that was your best pick then... [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

I'm sure it's cold comfort to you, but a lot of smart people got burned by this one: White Mountains, Fidelity, and Cap Re all had >10% stakes; Third Ave owned a bit; Motley Fool Hidden Gems had been recommending it; ....
And then some other smart people got into this in the 4th quarter after the drop: Olstein, First Manhattan, Cannell, Brandes, Second Curve tripled down, ....

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

Kagame, its worth noting that your marketocracy port, even after taking the huge shanda hit, is still on pace for 40% annual returns [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

thanks guys, definitely helps to hear that

i think i need to stop listening to smart people and take much much smaller risks

im only 21 and i was definitely rambling hard on shanda. i wish i had as small a percentage position as i do in my marketocracy portfolio...

so funny how you can pick winners in theory but when you have to use position sizing and its real money on the line everything goes bonkers

reminds me of tilt and playing above your bankroll in poker ;-)

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

When did you buy? If you bought a while after Katrina, it doesn't look as devastating.

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

[ QUOTE ]
so funny how you can pick winners in theory but when you have to use position sizing and its real money on the line everything goes bonkers

reminds me of tilt and playing above your bankroll in poker ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

Spend some more time reading up on Position sizing and risk management!

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

the crazy thing is i have read up a ton

the van tharp book, and i just recently read "fortunes formula"

the problem is i had already started investing before i got this knowledge and was already in a hole from overbetting my edge

then i tried to break even by continuing to overbet my +EV!

ugggh ;-)

ive learned my lesson now though and will start investing properly

no more gambling, sigh

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

oh plus companies like shanda that i overbet on are so good that now its hard to reduce my position sizes on my losers and diversify

however its been really easy to sell off winners and rediversify with them!

i just dont have enough funds to diversify fully right now, i just started out overbetting and until i can get away from my big position sizes/get a ton more money its really hard to invest properly!

but from now on all the money i invest will be diversified as much as i am able to, and i will continue to invest heavily throughout my lifespan, and should hopefully be able to rebound nicely if i bear down and exercise full self control, as i do in poker by neccessity now i suppose lol

Re: my best stock pick ever
 

Bought a company named wamex at 5 bucks a share back in 1998. Few weeks later it was frozen by the SEC. 120 someodd people were arressted that week including high ranking members of the Bonano crime family in one of the biggest busts ever.

Stock opened up a .02 a share. Yay me.