$120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

Stack sizes are approximate. Villain seems semi-donkish, but somewhat observant. Probably around 25/10 for the game thus far.

Right before hands were dealt, BB takes a call on his cell and leaves, and is folded out. It then folds to Villain on button. How much do you increase the probability of him being on a steal with BB gone?

Blinds 300/600 75

UTG 1700
BTN 9000
SB 4300
BB 5000 (sitting out)

Preflop (t1200) Hero is in SB with AKo.

UTG folds, BTN raises to 2000.

There is a shorty, and I don't think I have any FE.

From SNGWiz it looks like a shove, if you assume BTN will call and input his bet as a shove.

Is it wrong to think BTN is doing this with ATC? He wasn't a maniac, but there were a lot of dead chips.

Thoughts?

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here, still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

I'm pushing this. Your hand is too strong to fold, especially with the blinds so high.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering:

If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ
If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ

So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE.

AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV?

(I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day)

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

this is a shove anyway but especially with the bb sitting out. The only reason you wouldnt move if you were playing to get into money which you shouldnt be anyways.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

I really like the call here, with the bb sitting out also to me says he will push here with decent holding i think you have his Ax or Kx crushed though. Can you pm results please mate.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf.

If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go...

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

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Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here


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True. But as his range gets smaller, shoving gets less profitable.

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still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all.

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It 'feels' like I am basically calling an all-in with A high and 7BBs left. Is this the wrong way to look at it? I don't know if I win the flip enough to make it profitable.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

[ QUOTE ]
To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering:

If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ
If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ

So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE.

AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV?

(I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day)

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math sounds right to me. And AK only wins enough against weaker aces. I think it is a fold now. At the time, I thought I would see a lot of weaker aces but that isn't a reasonable assumption.

Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf.

If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go...

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not have made it clear that I am SB...