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-   -   *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD *** (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555326)

Performify 11-27-2007 02:36 AM

*** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
DET @ MIN
HOU @ TEN
SF @ CAR
JAC @ IND
SD @ KC
NYJ @ MIA
BUF @ WAS
SEA @ PHI
ATL @ STL

rsigley 11-27-2007 03:06 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
legendz has jets +7

pinnacle has jets +1

is it ethical to bet +7 on legendz when its obviously an error?

they also have pats +7

guess all bets will be cancelled

kyro 11-27-2007 03:11 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
There is no possible way you get paid for either of those bets.

Disclaimer: I actually have no idea if you would, I'm just spouting random crap. I'd be surprised if they honored your bet, especially the Pats one.

Rustjive 11-27-2007 03:14 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
From what I've heard it's pointless to bet on obviously wrong numbers. The bet will be voided, and not only that, you might even get flagged for being someone who requires extra supervision, you know, for being someone who bets on rogue/wrong lines and for being a sharp.

kyro 11-27-2007 11:16 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Kansas City ML (+185)
Risk 0.5u to win .925u

Looking to get a unit down at bodog for +6 as well, but haven't done so yet. Waiting to see if they ever open a moneyline up for the game. 6 points is just way too many points to give to a team that has a solid defense and historically plays well at home (although not so much this year).

NajdorfDefense 11-28-2007 01:09 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Surprised Sea on road is only +3. This is a MUST-win game for PHL as 5-7 with a trip to Dallas = home in January.

And let's face it, Sea is not that good on the road, while PHL is finally rounding into shape after a sluggish start. PHL has tiebreaker on Det and split w/Was so can get a playoff berth fairly easily if the beat who they should beat.

I'm not saying the line should be 6-7, just that only 3 is not enough to take a road dog here, esp the 'Hawks.

kyro 11-28-2007 01:19 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
One book I have is at +3.5

Seattle is a better team than Philly, and Philly has actually played worse of late than the beginning of the year according to DVOA. (Weighted DVOA < Total DVOA).

I haven't made the decision yet, but I may take Seattle if it stays at 3.5. I agree that Seattle isn't the same team on the road as it is at home, and that's the only thing keeping me from betting on it right now.

NajdorfDefense 11-28-2007 01:30 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
SEA is not a better team than PHL. PHL Def DVOA is low when Sheppard and Dawkins and Considine and others were all out hurt early in the season, and Gaither/Gocong were learning new positions. Now they are all back and healthy but Considine.

The 23-pt gap in ST-DVOA is overstating the difference in these teams.

PHL has beaten 3 5+ win teams [and ST collapse v GB and you saw NWE] while SEA has only 2, both at home and 2 of their wins v STL and 2 v SFO. They haven't beaten a winning team since...Week 1.

Games w/Dawkins healthy.
GB - no TDs
Miami - no TDs
NWE -3 Off TDs, Brady had one.
Was - 1 td final 47 mins.

Sea has a 2-game lead, PHL is win or out.

kyro 11-28-2007 01:35 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Very solid analysis. Thanks.

LogistX 11-28-2007 01:26 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his status.

kyro 11-28-2007 01:35 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his status.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tennessee's average points allowed WITH AH: 15.5
Tennessee's average points allowed WITHOUT AH: 32.33

Small sample size, and Tennessee HAS played some good offensive teams in the past 3 weeks, but they are clearly a different football team without him in the lineup. I'd go so far as to say I'd take the Texans if I knew he was out and the Titans if I knew he was in.

MCS 11-28-2007 05:23 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Miami -1.5 (ev) for 1u

GO DOLPHINS!

ElSapo 11-28-2007 05:26 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...

kyro 11-28-2007 06:14 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
All plays are risking 1u.

Dolphins -1 (-110)

Get ready to pop those champagne corks '76 Bucs. Miami's the better team, albeit barely, and they're at home. It's time to celebrate.

Vikes -3.5 (-110)

The last time I bet on a Vikings game and ignored matchups it bit me in the ass. Well, the matchups favor the Lions in this game as well, but the Vikings are just too good of a team, despite not always playing like one. Interesting note, according to FO, the Vikes are the favorite (at 34.5%) to win the 6th playoff spot assuming the Giants and current division leaders stay the same.

Panthers/49ers O35 (-110)

I'm sorry. I know we're looking at two dreadful offenses here, but I cannot dignify seeing a total this low in a game that features two bottom 10 defenses.

mogwai316 11-28-2007 06:27 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...

[/ QUOTE ]

sbrlines shows the opener as -5 -104. Personally, I tend to stay away from games that become unpredictable due to external events like this. Washington could play very poorly because they are grieving and distracted, or they could play great because they are very motivated to win in Taylor's memory. It's too risky to try to guess which way it will turn out.

mogwai316 11-28-2007 06:29 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

kyro 11-28-2007 06:30 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

wagerline has it at 50/50 at 1.5 right now. Not nearly as BSPish as Cleveland, Denver and SD.

MCS 11-29-2007 09:42 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It hasn't seemed like that to me. I have them for 1u either way. I'm looking at market price/DVOA/Sagarin/tea leaves.





[ QUOTE ]
My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in New York but haven't heard much from New Yorkers about the game.

Lori 11-29-2007 11:13 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
My fave NFL scenario is hideous home team against not quite as hideous road team.

I'm a little concerned about all the people who seem to think Miami is not complete crap based on the fact that they've not been slaughtered as they've been fortunate enough to have at least two games on unplayable surfaces which will totally wreck any statistical analysis of their play for the season. However, crap or not, the Jets are pretty much as bad.

However I like my motivation based picks a lot, and given that they can afford to win this, impress the fans (lol) and not screw up #1 draft pick while the Jets have nothing at all of interest to show up for, I'm going to take this.

Less of the Dolphins aren't crap posts though please.

I'll likely be taking STL at -5 or better (hoping for -3) too when the line finally decides to turn up. Similar reasons, although neither team is as bad as these two.

kyro 11-29-2007 11:32 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Lorindo,

The Dolphins weren't crap even before the Giants game. I mean, OK, they were crap, but they were like girl crap, and not 300-pound sweaty man crap.

Enrico Pallazzo 11-29-2007 06:01 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
After the Pittsburgh MNF game and the Giants-Dolphins game before that from the UK, it might be a good idea if someone did a field condition/weather report of each game.

The early weather reports suggest that there could be more sloppy games this weekend. For this slate, WASH, TENN, PHI, KC and CAR might have issues that warrant monitoring.

I'll be at the WASH game, so I'll be paying extra close attention to that one.

Nonfiction 11-30-2007 03:17 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Houston +4
Arizona pick em

Like KC +6 but seeing if the line moves a bit more

Also considering Tampa +3.5 but waiting to see if garcia starts

kyro 11-30-2007 05:22 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
KC is now at +6.5 (-115) at bodog. Unreal, i took the moneyline on them back when it was +5.

Nonfiction 11-30-2007 05:36 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
KC is now at +6.5 (-115) at bodog. Unreal, i took the moneyline on them back when it was +5.

[/ QUOTE ]
still shows +6 (-105) for me, damn my lines [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

kyro 11-30-2007 05:41 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
They must think I'm a square still. Well...I guess I am.

poker007poker 11-30-2007 05:55 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
skins-5.5 3 stars

Tyler Durden 11-30-2007 06:29 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
skins-5.5 3 stars

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think it's still a good bet at -6?

Nonfiction 11-30-2007 09:08 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Ok, Garcia is apparently going to be a gametime decision. Does anyone have thoughts on Tampa or should I stay away? +3.5 is a pretty sweet line even though they are on the road. I feel that Tampa covers if not outright wins this game more more often than not, but without Garcia I don't really want to touch this. Tampas offense was horrendous last week without Garcia but granted, NO's defense is obviously much worse than Washingtons. Eh will prolly just stay away.

dankhank 12-02-2007 04:15 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
vikings -4
colts -6.5
dolphins -1
eagles -3 -120
panthers -3

FastPlaySlow 12-02-2007 04:55 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
browns (+1)
dolphins (-1.5)


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