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-   -   *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD *** (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555326)

kyro 11-28-2007 01:35 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his status.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tennessee's average points allowed WITH AH: 15.5
Tennessee's average points allowed WITHOUT AH: 32.33

Small sample size, and Tennessee HAS played some good offensive teams in the past 3 weeks, but they are clearly a different football team without him in the lineup. I'd go so far as to say I'd take the Texans if I knew he was out and the Titans if I knew he was in.

MCS 11-28-2007 05:23 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Miami -1.5 (ev) for 1u

GO DOLPHINS!

ElSapo 11-28-2007 05:26 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...

kyro 11-28-2007 06:14 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
All plays are risking 1u.

Dolphins -1 (-110)

Get ready to pop those champagne corks '76 Bucs. Miami's the better team, albeit barely, and they're at home. It's time to celebrate.

Vikes -3.5 (-110)

The last time I bet on a Vikings game and ignored matchups it bit me in the ass. Well, the matchups favor the Lions in this game as well, but the Vikings are just too good of a team, despite not always playing like one. Interesting note, according to FO, the Vikes are the favorite (at 34.5%) to win the 6th playoff spot assuming the Giants and current division leaders stay the same.

Panthers/49ers O35 (-110)

I'm sorry. I know we're looking at two dreadful offenses here, but I cannot dignify seeing a total this low in a game that features two bottom 10 defenses.

mogwai316 11-28-2007 06:27 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...

[/ QUOTE ]

sbrlines shows the opener as -5 -104. Personally, I tend to stay away from games that become unpredictable due to external events like this. Washington could play very poorly because they are grieving and distracted, or they could play great because they are very motivated to win in Taylor's memory. It's too risky to try to guess which way it will turn out.

mogwai316 11-28-2007 06:29 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

kyro 11-28-2007 06:30 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

wagerline has it at 50/50 at 1.5 right now. Not nearly as BSPish as Cleveland, Denver and SD.

MCS 11-29-2007 09:42 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It hasn't seemed like that to me. I have them for 1u either way. I'm looking at market price/DVOA/Sagarin/tea leaves.





[ QUOTE ]
My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in New York but haven't heard much from New Yorkers about the game.

Lori 11-29-2007 11:13 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
My fave NFL scenario is hideous home team against not quite as hideous road team.

I'm a little concerned about all the people who seem to think Miami is not complete crap based on the fact that they've not been slaughtered as they've been fortunate enough to have at least two games on unplayable surfaces which will totally wreck any statistical analysis of their play for the season. However, crap or not, the Jets are pretty much as bad.

However I like my motivation based picks a lot, and given that they can afford to win this, impress the fans (lol) and not screw up #1 draft pick while the Jets have nothing at all of interest to show up for, I'm going to take this.

Less of the Dolphins aren't crap posts though please.

I'll likely be taking STL at -5 or better (hoping for -3) too when the line finally decides to turn up. Similar reasons, although neither team is as bad as these two.

kyro 11-29-2007 11:32 AM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 
Lorindo,

The Dolphins weren't crap even before the Giants game. I mean, OK, they were crap, but they were like girl crap, and not 300-pound sweaty man crap.


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