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-   -   draw against obvious AA (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=550561)

sondring 11-20-2007 12:44 PM

draw against obvious AA
 
Any thoughts on this hand?

Villain is pretty passive pre and post flop. His numbers are something like 22/3/1.2 over hundreds of datamined hands. I'm 95% sure he has AAxx here when he re-pots it pre-flop. I decide to call OOP and see a flop. Maybe I should just fold to his 3-bet?

Once I get this flop is there any other way to play it? bet 3-bet all in? Check fold?

I've been running close to 27/15/3 @ this table.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100
Hero: $98.50
CO: $86.75
Button: $110.30
SB: $52.95
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $12</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($25.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $25.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $86.5</font>

Hattifnatt 11-20-2007 12:46 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
I dont like the initial raise even thought its somewhat ok if you have a good read on the players. as played fold to the 3-bet and c/f flop.

sondring 11-20-2007 12:57 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
Yeah, looking back I'm not sure why I opened this from EP. It's normally a fold for me. Might have been because CO and button were tight. Would you be more inclined to call the 3-bet if it came from the blinds?

Hattifnatt 11-20-2007 01:10 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, looking back I'm not sure why I opened this from EP. It's normally a fold for me. Might have been because CO and button were tight. Would you be more inclined to call the 3-bet if it came from the blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]
of course, at least with a 95%-aces-read, but would still fold it because of your crappy hand and the pair in your hand.

Nez477 11-20-2007 01:16 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
With stack sizes I hate the call preflop and the line on the flop is a spew in most cases unless the villian has shown he can make a fold on a paired board like this, which, let's face it, isn't often in omaha

Aces=Nuts, didn't you know?

sondring 11-20-2007 01:23 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
Cool. I did an EV calc of my flop CR and he has to fold 25% of the time for it to be a profitable move. That is assuming he has a dry AA hand. Should villain ever be folding AA to my CR on this board?

The maths:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Player Folds:
+$51.0

Player Calls:
62% * (-86.5) = -53.6
38% * (+98.5) = +37.4
= -16.2

Player Folds 100x% of the time, then:
EV(push) = (51)*x + (-16.2)(1-x)
= 51x -16.2 + 16.2x
= 67.2x - 16.2
16.2 = 67.2x
x = 16.2 / 67.2

x = 24%
</pre><hr />

Rob121 11-20-2007 01:32 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
i dont like preflop. bet 3 bet all in is probably the worst opotion with these stacks on the flop. I dont mind the check raise.

RoundTower 11-20-2007 01:33 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
you cant assume he has dry AAxx 100% of the time, some % of that he has a 6 or the same straight draw which hurts your EV if called.

I think you get a fold a lot more than 25% of the time though, so it might be OK.

I think preflop is OK though marginal. It is hard to reconcile "you shouldn't call here preflop" with "the guy will always stack off with aces here" because you will hit enough boards where you crush aces to justify the $8.50 investment.

sondring 11-20-2007 01:39 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
[ QUOTE ]
you cant assume he has dry AAxx 100% of the time, some % of that he has a 6 or the same straight draw which hurts your EV if called.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this. I figured the times he has a 6 or some of my straight outs blocked is offset by the times he has AKJQds or some other hand he is more likely to fold on the flop.

4CardGrind 11-20-2007 02:15 PM

Re: draw against obvious AA
 
I think the success of your play is a function of your opponents experience level.

In the higher games people have played enough to know that most people rarely bluff these boards in 3-bet pots. That said, if your opponent is a pretty experienced player I can see him folding 25% of the time under that logic.

Stacks aren't deep with normally implies low fold equity, so if he gives you credit for being competent he would think your expecting to be called and that is scary in his seat.

Of course, all that means next to nothing if your opponent is not a thinking player.

.... moral of the story... don't open this hand PF except 3 handed or HU on button : )


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