3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Villain in this hand is a tough regular (top 5) in the Stars 3/6 game. He is a good TAG and adept at playing these cold-called single raised pots in position. When he calls me on the flop he could have a monster, a good hand, an ok hand, or air. I expect him to bet the turn about the same with all the hands -- although he may occasionally check behind top pair. 67 is a possible holding but truly represents a very small portion of his range (of which QT is also a part). I did not think 2 barreling was a particularly attractive option, but feel free to disagree.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $204.10
UTG+1: $435.70
Hero: $612
Button: $702.50
SB: $450.25
BB: $600

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $24</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($57, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $39</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $96</font>, Hero calls planning to bet $260 if the river bricks off, check-push if he hits his straight, check-call if he hits his ace, check-fold (but hope for a check behind) if he hits his ten

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

If he's really tough, why not bet like 160ish on the river instead, make it look like a blocker to a solid regular?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Because I'll get called more than I want to, and occasionally "bluff raised"

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

- stop n go looks really weird, might confuse him enough so he bluff raises you or calls with a better hand.

- if hes good he'll know that on the turn youre likely to semi bluff a lesser out draw if he thinks your drawing and checkcall with a bigger draw (and maybe best hand) ie things like t9/tj

- if you cgheckcall turn and then bet river blank, your hand doesnt look that strong given turn action, and if you had more than 200 left behind youd expect to have your bet shoved over. If you bet just 160 youll get raisd by worse and called by better anyways so that doesnt seem to hot either.


overall hand looks pretty transparent as air or something that cant take a lot of action despite the fact that you do weird bet sizing on turns board texture combod with river play

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

If he's outright bluffing himself or has a very weak hand (think 66 or KQ), then this line does succeed in re-bluffing. I'm NOT trying to fold a jack here (although I think it's possible).

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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If he's outright bluffing himself or has a very weak hand (think 66 or KQ), then this line does succeed in re-bluffing.

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If thats your goal then, isnt it better to just fire a 2nd barrel?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

No, not necessarily

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

C/shove when u hit straight is aweful unless villain likes to float flop in position and will make huge bluffs. Turn bet to c/c is aweful IMO. Straight is so obvoius if u hit it if u c/c the turn. Who says he doesn't have QT or 67s? You should just fold. C/c makes it too hard to extract $ on riv if u hit straight, and you have to c/f if u miss. You're getting only... ~2:1 to call the turn, and only 1/5 of the time or so does the straight hit the riv,meaning you're losing tons of money calling her. Besides, betting big on any riv but checking when making a hand will just lose so much $. Betting turn isn't aweful and folding to a raise. At least when u bet the turn u still have control of the hand. Now if u had KJ or AJ, MAYBE JQ if villain wuz fishy would i c/c this turn.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Is this a troll account?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

why no turn c/r

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

If the river is an ace I bet fold

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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If the river is an ace I bet fold

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ewww

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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why no turn c/r

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Because it may or may not be the best line.

What do you think?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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If the river is an ace I bet fold

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ewww

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Bleh I didn't read all of your reads. I figured it was against a normal player who's not really capable of bluff raising the river.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Villain in this hand is a tough regular (top 5) in the Stars 3/6 game.

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gotta be TWP!

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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why no turn c/r

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with all those probable outs and the likelihood of him being weak, i don't think c/r could possibly be BAD, but i jsut wonder how credible it is. it's an action board and without a lot of history of this guy floating the flop and betting the turn, i'd expect most big and/or vulnerable hands to fire again on the turn. c/r would kind of look exactly like what it is, a semibluff. and i'm sure a good, tough player is capable of betting some pretty good, but not great, made hands, and happily calling all-in

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Villain in this hand is a tough regular (top 5) in the Stars 3/6 game.

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gotta be TWP!

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While TWP is undoubtedly a top 5 stars 3/6 player, he was not the opponent.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

i dont like your plan for the river but check calling this turn is socially acceptable

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

with a bet flop, check-call turn, bet river line, i think you'll be called more often than you'd like with a presumably crappy hand like AT.

just seems like too marginal a spot to be trying to squeeze out value and/or bluff equity, oop. and your draw isnt really concealed at all either, so i dont think you have much in the way of implied odds, unless he decides to bluff when it gets there (and of course he could have a T himself pretty often here).

I think I prefer either c/r or c/f the turn here. Leaning towards c/f, but depending on my table image I think I could pull off the c/r often enough.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

This is such a crappy draw, I just don't see the value in check-calling, and I think saying "I have a plan!" is just a way of justifying it afterwards.

c-f &gt; c-r &gt; c-c

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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why no turn c/r

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This is what I was thinking. The stack-a-donk line represents the hands you are trying to represent come river much better then a c/c turn.

Also DJ pretty much summed up what needs to be said.....

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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This is such a crappy draw, I just don't see the value in check-calling, and I think saying "I have a plan!" is just a way of justifying it afterwards.

c-f &gt; c-r &gt; c-c

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Wow you caught me. Guilty as charged.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

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This is the reason a call is so bad. You can be 51% against his range, but if you're OOP, and sometimes even if you aren't, it doesn't matter. You're going to be so severely outplayed in a spot like this, you can't call profitably.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Yeah I agree with most of what DJ has said. Maybe you have the odds, but I don't have acess to PStove right now.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

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This is the reason a call is so bad. You can be 51% against his range, but if you're OOP, and sometimes even if you aren't, it doesn't matter. You're going to be so severely outplayed in a spot like this, you can't call profitably.

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

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The primary value can't come from your 11 primary outs, you aren't getting the right price. You need to have the best hand part of the time AND you have to see a showdown with it unimproved. And I think your implied odds are pretty bad, as you can't value bet any of your outs very well. The only effective way to extract money is from inducing large bets when you hit.

To look at it another way, since you seem to have a problem with the term outplayed, who do you think is going to play the hand better on the river, you or your opponent?

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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why no turn c/r

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Because it may or may not be the best line.

What do you think?

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well, there are several lines that are probably close to optimal here and if you're good at making adjustments, c/r is the easiest and most fun

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

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The primary value can't come from your 11 primary outs, you aren't getting the right price. You need to have the best hand part of the time AND you have to see a showdown with it unimproved. And I think your implied odds are pretty bad, as you can't value bet any of your outs very well. The only effective way to extract money is from inducing large bets when you hit.

To look at it another way, since you seem to have a problem with the term outplayed, who do you think is going to play the hand better on the river, you or your opponent?

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Basic poker stove analysis vs his hand range tells me that, as I just said, there is very little value (ie check-calling a bet) in AT high being good unimproved on a blank river.

Also, where the FUCK did you get the idea that I "seem to have a problem with the term outplayed". Oh wait you're the guy that also said I was making up the fact that I had a plan because I'm embarrassed about check-calling. Sounds about right.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Parlay, I just checked to see how you circumvented it, and you're a genius.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Parlay, I just checked to see how you circumvented it, and you're a genius.

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that was only about the 121,485th time it's been done on 2p2...

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Yeah I agree with most of what DJ has said. Maybe you have the odds, but I don't have acess to PStove right now.

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if he has odds on a straight peel, and he can play the river in a +EV manner, then it can't be a bad plan

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

I meant it doesn't seem like he has straight odds to peel.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Given the villain described, you think ace-ten is over a 2.4 to 1 dog vs his hand range? Really?? Some pokerstoving demonstrates otherwise.

Also for others, let's define being outplayed on the river in a "straight peel" situation:

1. River bricks off and I check-fold the best hand.

If you think I'm vulnerable to this please name some hands in his range that he can outplay me with in this manner. I think you'll see this range is tiny and applies a very small percentage of the time (considering he'll give up some % of that time as well)

2. When the ace hits, he only bets when he can beat ace-ten.

This is almost certainly incorrect.

3. When the straight hits, he'll never bluff or value bet a worse hand.

Again, incorrect

4. When the ten hits, he won't let me show it down if it's good, and he'll check behind or value bet me with better.

This is a card that I can get outplayed on. I am vulnerable here.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Parlay, I just checked to see how you circumvented it, and you're a genius.

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that was only about the 121,485th time it's been done on 2p2...

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lol, sorry i must not pay much attention

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

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Also, where the FUCK did you get the idea that I "seem to have a problem with the term outplayed". Oh wait you're the guy that also said I was making up the fact that I had a plan because I'm embarrassed about check-calling. Sounds about right.

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I dunno, it seems really important to you to make sure to squeak through FUCK.

I'm drunkish, and this thread is silly. Even so, I think I'd still check fold this hand in your position. Actually, crai is my new and better answer to the hand and problem and all future hands/problems.

Also, hi [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

I don't find this thread to be silly.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

Who is villan..just curious.

Re: 3/6 OOP with a plan
 

If you want to convince me or anyone else that calling is profitable, I'd like to see the math for various scenarios.