River value bet, then what?
 

You have AKo in late position. A few limpers, you raise.

Flop comes: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

First limper checks, second limper bets, you raise, first limper folds, second limper calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

limper checks, you bet, he calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

limper checks, you bet, he raises....

Do you call this against loose and unpredictable opponents and fold against standard ones? Do you call against everyone? Do you fold against everyone?

Thoughts?

Re: River value bet, then what?
 

Honestly: I play bad so I call. But if the pot is 10BBs, i really doubt we're good 9% or whatever against sane opponents. The only thing that would lead me to believe we might be is that going for a c/r when the obvious draw hits is kind of stupid, you'd think he'd lead it, and there's not really any 2pair combos he could have with that 3.

Re: River value bet, then what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly: I play bad so I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, me too! Except that once in a while - maybe not 10% - an unknown villain is caught betting this with a smaller pair, trying to represent the flush. And we never forget when that happens.

Here's my attitude: if the villain is really a complete unknown, pay it off, just for the information if nothing else. And if you fold, you might just encourage villain to take a stab at bluffing you next time the situation arises.

But once you have a few orbits and presumably notice that the opponent is just a basic donk, you can fold.

Re: River value bet, then what?
 

I call here most of the time. I often hate doing it, because I know I'm not good like 95%+ of the time. I usually need a good read to make this laydown.

Re: River value bet, then what?
 

--blind response--

I think a read on how a guy plays draws can often be the determining factor here. If he'll donk a draw on the flop often enough that could swing this to a fold.

Flush draws should consider the fact that you'll often raise them with that king out there though, so that means you'll have to be up against a relative non-handreader.

with that said, this is a very logical way to play a draw against a tag that cont bets every time but can fold air if bet into. also, your river bet is fairly predictable - which means that the checkraise is very often for value.

here' the thing - he can't have a naked king, ten, or pp very often there because those hands tend to want to showdown and will check/call the river.

so his hand has to be a whiffed draw for this to be at all correct. which whiffed draws are out there? JQ, J9, and that's about it. even those have showdown value and will probably check/call.

In the end, it looks like this is a fold against everyone but the total weirdos. I hate making this fold though. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: River value bet, then what?
 

I probably pay this off more than I should against most types of opponents, and would against an unknown -- although I don't think it's right, necessarily. If nothing else, when they do have the flush, you'll see how crappy a suited hand they're willing to limp. If our image is aggressive, they may think we're FOS, and wait till the river to pop us w/TP some (small) percentage of the time. Eh, these sound too much just like poor rationalizations for a call [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

I would expect someone on a flush draw to actually lead this OOP, for fear of it getting checked behind. If villain does lead here, is it a pretty standard call?