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-   -   i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=548140)

derosnec 11-17-2007 03:29 AM

i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
BB is 11/6 over 1,000 hands


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($58.70)
BB ($119.10)
UTG ($24.05)
MP ($29.45)
CO ($49.10)
Button ($37.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, BB calls $6.50, CO calls $5.

Flop: ($21) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $14</font>, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $21

Lego05 11-17-2007 03:37 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
I actually think this is fine given villian. (And CO still called too btw.)


Best case scenario (And I'm really not sure if he might have JJ here):


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.005 secs 3,960,000 games/sec

Board: Th 5h 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.801% 33.41% 02.39% 6616 472.50 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 64.199% 61.81% 02.39% 12239 472.50 { KK+, QhQs, JJ, AhKh }

stu-unger 11-17-2007 03:44 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
i see that dude is a complete nit and all, but i totally dont get the 3bet pf, c/f flop with an overpair oop against 2 opponents on a drawy board line.

i 2/3 pot this flop and probably snap fold if villain does anything including calling...

WHITEBOYAEHS 11-17-2007 03:48 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
[ QUOTE ]
i see that dude is a complete nit and all, but i totally dont get the 3bet pf, c/f flop with an overpair oop against 2 opponents on a drawy board line.

i 2/3 pot this flop and probably snap fold if villain does anything including calling...

[/ QUOTE ]

op prolly thought that villains stats made the optimal play to c/f because 11/6s dont usually flip over [censored] hands

stu-unger 11-17-2007 03:56 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i see that dude is a complete nit and all, but i totally dont get the 3bet pf, c/f flop with an overpair oop against 2 opponents on a drawy board line.

i 2/3 pot this flop and probably snap fold if villain does anything including calling...

[/ QUOTE ]

op prolly thought that villains stats made the optimal play to c/f because 11/6s dont usually flip over [censored] hands

[/ QUOTE ]

i might be missing something here. is villains range really AA, KK, and sets no matter what in a 3 bet pot??? is COs range the same??? I cant c/f because i dont want to risk a free card to anyone in this spot and there are plenty of worse hands that CO can call me for value with. please explain why betting is wrong here under any circumstances...

latvaniemi 11-17-2007 04:08 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
You might have to put sets and at,kt,jt there also..

Genesis 11-17-2007 04:16 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
I still would've bet 2/3 pot and shut down immediately to any call or raise. I would expect an 11/6 to reraise with AA most of the time, and KK a lot of the time. QQ, JJ, AK I can see him calling preflop, maybe TT.
This is how I would think about his hand range.
TT, JJ, QQ, AK &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; KK &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&g t;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; AA

This could obviously be off depending on the villain, but I doubt we can say that AA will be called here with the same frequency as say TT-QQ.
I would've liked to see the original post stopped before Hero did anything and then see the responses. Now we see Hero check and BB bet. Ofcourse he has a strong hand this time. And maybe checking is the best overall play because BB will only bet when we're beat. But I won't be as happy seeing this flop check through and the turn come down a K or A and we just gave the pot away the times we are ahead now. There are 15 AK combinations besides AhKh that we are a favorite over before anyone on the flop acts. If you equally weight AA, KK, AK, QQ, and JJ here, that is 6+6+1=13 we are behind (this includes AhKh), 1 we split, 15+6=21 we are ahead of.

I'm going to think about this some more. I see the benefit of checking and letting BB tighten his range down at no cost cost to us, but at the same time I'm not sure it's worth it to check and risk a free card in this pot.

orlov 11-17-2007 04:21 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
Okay, after learning to read my second attempt at this :P:

Assuming his 3bet calling range is somewhere along the lines of TT-QQ,AK you are ahead of his range on the flop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.345% 67.51% 01.84% 17377 472.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 30.655% 28.82% 01.84% 7418 472.50 { QQ-TT, AKs, AKo }

Your check to him showed weakness, but he still has CO to act behind him, so I dont think this is AK getting fancy.

Thus we can narrow it down to QQ-TT imo. If you assume he was scared of 4betting KK pre, your equity goes down tough.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.197% 58.42% 04.77% 5784 472.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 36.803% 32.03% 04.77% 3171 472.50 { QQ-TT }

I would just raise it to 2/3 pots and see where it goes from there.






Genesis 11-17-2007 04:41 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
I know you put some time into that post, but I don't think it pertains to this hand at all. The 11/6 opponent is BB who just called preflop. Plus he never led into us on the flop, we checked to him.

orlov 11-17-2007 04:45 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
Omg I need to learn to read, confused CO with BB. still too early in the morning, just ignore what I wrote...

Lego05 11-17-2007 06:24 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
An 11/6 cold called 2 raises pre-flop. His range is extremely narrow IMO.

orange 11-17-2007 06:31 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
probably not too horrible, but c/c-ing flop and c/f-ing turn or b/f-ing flop could have its merits.

infinity235 11-17-2007 07:35 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
I lead this flop and fold safely to a raise.

gfejs 11-17-2007 07:54 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
The play is ok I think, but I see a point too lead this flop and see what happens... But by checking I think you will get info on how strong the Villian is. I honestly think he would check any hand that we beat and bet all hands we loose.

corsakh 11-17-2007 08:12 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
1k I think is a decent sample. A read is a read, you really are behind his range once he bets. I would betfold though, I am certain most people cold call AK in his spot preflop.

Mase31683 11-17-2007 09:34 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
Why not lead this flop? You were the aggressor preflop with a reraise, and the other two players submitted and just called. This pot is your right now so fire at it on the flop and see what the reaction is. Just because he's a tight player doesn't mean he's not calling here with AK preflop. Seen that before.

Triggerle 11-17-2007 10:11 AM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
11/6 is very tight and if the guy is a winner or a small loser I'm pretty sure he will not cold call 2 bets with AK.

But even if he is, he will for sure not bet the flop with a missed AK so why would we want to bet?

I guess your argument is that he will fold his AK to a bet. But this means we are on a negative freeroll. Our bet is either returned uncalled or we will be crushed.

So the options are:

1) Check and find out if he has AK for free
2) Bet and find out if he has AK for the price of a bet


Generally, if we only find one hand that we can beat and if this hand is not really likely but more of a whish, then we shouldn't put all our hopes on this hand.

11-17-2007 12:32 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
If you gonna 3bet pf, you have to Cbet this flop IMO, I mean what flop are we hoping for with QQ? I would`t be worried about KK-AA atm. Just bet and if he calls I check turn and see what develops.

btw, are you really piscogay at Stars ?

mg0698 11-17-2007 01:16 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
i am putting him on ak of hearts, don't think he will cold call with aa's or kk's with someone behind him, 11/6 is pretty tight in a 6max

kaz2107 11-17-2007 03:44 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
please bet fold the flop. cfing is soooooooo weak tight.

stu-unger 11-17-2007 04:32 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
to everyone saying checking is ok, u do realize we dont know if anyone will bet and giving free cards on this board is bad.

Triggerle 11-17-2007 09:41 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
Free cards are not really our concern given the PF call. Once this guy calls our 3bet cold we are almost toast unless we improve.

Yes, an A turn would be bad if he has AK but IMO the danger of a 3-outer for him is much lower than the danger that we are already behind on the flop.

stu-unger 11-17-2007 10:16 PM

Re: i check fold my overpair in 3bet pot
 
[ QUOTE ]
Free cards are not really our concern given the PF call. Once this guy calls our 3bet cold we are almost toast unless we improve.

Yes, an A turn would be bad if he has AK but IMO the danger of a 3-outer for him is much lower than the danger that we are already behind on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 callers, and CO was a donk so im not giving them a free card...


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