Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
 

Say we're at a .5/1 game PLO
5 people see the flop all with 100$ in front of them.
You hold 5c 6c Ah Qh

Flop: 3s 4s 7d
Pot : 5$

You pot it for 5$ and everyone folds except a very solid TAG who repots it to 30$. Is a fold here +EV?

Against nuts with a flush draw, ev = .30
Against nuts with a straight redraw ev = .39
Against nuts with Strt+F draw ev = .22
Against nuts with set ev = .31
Against nuts with set + F draw ev = .18

etc...

Basically your EV is around .3 against most of the redraw hands which imo is not enough to make a call with the nuts on the flop a +EV play. If you do make the call, you'll have to put in extra money on the turn if a safe card hits or you can fold it if a scare card comes.

I think if the 7c was changed to a 7h instead giving you a backdoor flush draw, a call would be neutral EV.

Are there any other scenarios where you fold the nut straight on the flop given different stack sizes, a larger pot caused by preflop raising, or more players giving action on the flop?

Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
 

EatMoPie - Am I missing something? I think he can only make it $20, and you already have $5 of it in the pot. It thus is $15 to you. Whatever.

I'd re-raise to $65 (or whatever). See if he wants to fork out another $45 (or whatever). Obviously he can put you all-in at this point.

But unless he has the same straight plus a re-draw, you're ahead.

If he does have the same straight with a re-draw, your pot equity depends on his re-draw.

Buzz

Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
 

Well with the 5 limpers, the pot is already 5$ and you pot it so the pot becomes 10$ and he repot raises and that's generally 2x pot no?

In this situations we're assuming my opponent is a very solid player who knows you are also a solid player and therefore already puts you on a straight given that you're potting it into 4 other players. By repotting it, I think we can safely assume that against this opponent, he has 56 with a redraw.

Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
 

here I just call and reevaluate on turn. This could be very exploitable and seems weak to lay down the nuts against only one opponent, even good.

The only time I can lay down the nuts is when two players play back and you can be sure to be against flush draw and str8 + redraw...

Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
 

a 'very solid TAG' would repot here with a wider range than the nuts with a good redraw - top set and especially top set with a redraw are more than possible depending on our own image. if its a complete nit then its slightly different, but a solid player you have to call and re-evaluate

if the flush comes or especially if the board pairs on the turn i like to lead out for 2/3 pot