Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

Villain is 25/7/1.5 thru 100 hands.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $54.40
Hero (MP): $354.65
CO: $242.25
BTN: $301.20
SB: $176.10
BB: $225.40

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $2, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, CO calls $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $8

Flop: ($33) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $23</font>, CO calls $23, UTG folds

Turn: ($79) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

I think he folds a queen &lt;10%. I'm pretty sure he almost always folds 66-TT, A2-A5. My image should be solid fwiw.

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

C/F. Betting just folds out hands you beat that he probably isn't going to turn into a bluff.

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
C/F. Betting just folds out hands you beat that he probably isn't going to turn into a bluff.

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with ~40bb in the pot, is it not worth protecting against 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
C/F. Betting just folds out hands you beat that he probably isn't going to turn into a bluff.

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what if he's a 20/17 tag?

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

the only real relevent thing about the J is that it's a heart. Not too much of his range is going to be a pp. You didn't give any reads on utg though or any specific reads on villain so that could change a few things.

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

When I'm in a spot like this I start by looking at his fold to cbets%. If it's low I'll bet again, he could easily be floating you here.

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the only real relevent thing about the J is that it's a heart. Not too much of his range is going to be a pp. You didn't give any reads on utg though or any specific reads on villain so that could change a few things.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean % wise?

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

Against floaty tag I'll fire again.

I don't think we need to protect against 8h8x and the like, because: only half of his pocket pairs have hearts, another heart isn't that likely to fall, and there are too many hands he can call the turn with that beat ours.

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

thats a player dependant spot actually. here i fold becasue hes never folding

Re: Turn 2nd Pair - C/F or Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
When I'm in a spot like this I start by looking at his fold to cbets%. If it's low I'll bet again, he could easily be floating you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this if you have air. however, you have middle pair, so it is not really in your interest to fold out random crap that the floater has floated you with.

i think a check is best, our only profit from this point is bluff catching, we can't valuebet