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-   -   10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=544657)

Praetor 11-12-2007 09:10 PM

10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($2567.17)
Hero ($2234.00)
SB ($2152.00)
BB ($1178.50)
UTG ($3466.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $80</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $270</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $190.

Flop: ($570) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $410</font>, MP calls $410.

Turn: ($1390) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1554 (All-In)</font>,

Is this ok? Only history is on another table where he 3 bet the SB to my BU and i 4 bet small and he insta shoved and i had to fold. He is 23/21 or so, im playing like 20/18

jj12 11-12-2007 11:12 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
i don't like this with the history described. you should have a better read on him and more solid image urself.

jfish 11-12-2007 11:20 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
bet &gt; check

whorasaurus 11-12-2007 11:27 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
im having a hard time putting MP on a hand, but your line looks pretty solid.

MatthewRyan 11-12-2007 11:31 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
no way, check and bet river only if u improve.

I just cant put him on a hand that calls a RR oop, c/calls a dry Q high flop and then folds to a turn bet when the 7 falls.

Darkfolder 11-12-2007 11:31 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I just cant put him on a hand that calls a RR oop, c/calls a dry Q high flop and then folds to a turn bet when the 7 falls.

[/ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ?

MatthewRyan 11-12-2007 11:32 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
[ QUOTE ]
bet &gt; check

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe if we had total air, but not when we have almost no FE but do u have a gutshot and 5 outs

Barrin6 11-12-2007 11:47 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet &gt; check

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe if we had total air, but not when we have almost no FE but do u have a gutshot and 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost no FE? History dictates that Villain views OP as an aggressive bluffy 3 bettor. As shown when OP 4bet bluff/fold. Because of that, villain is going to call flop cbets really light in rr pots. So anyways...

Effective stacks 2234$

Villain folds
EV=$1390

Pokerstove if Villain calls and Hero is behind
Note:This range is assuming villain doesn't call light


Board: 5h 9d Qs 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.636% 18.64% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 81.364% 81.36% 00.00% 1611 0.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }



So we have a 18% equity once villain calls


EV of us pushing and being called
EV=(.18)(4468)+(.82)(-1554)
EV=804.24-1274.28
EV=-470.04

Neutral EV when shoving where Fold equity=x

EV=0
0=-1390x+(1-x)(-470.04)
0=-1390x-470.04+470.04x
0=1860.04-470.04
470.04=1860.04x
x=25%

MatthewRyan 11-12-2007 11:53 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet &gt; check

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe if we had total air, but not when we have almost no FE but do u have a gutshot and 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Almost no FE? History dictates that Villain views OP as an aggressive bluffy 3 bettor. As shown when OP 4bet bluff/fold. Because of that, villain is going to call flop cbets really light in rr pots So anyways...

Effective stacks 2234$

Villain folds
EV=$1390

Pokerstove if Villain calls and Hero is behind
Note:This range is assuming villain doesn't call light


Board: 5h 9d Qs 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.636% 18.64% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 81.364% 81.36% 00.00% 1611 0.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }



So we have a 18% equity once villain calls


EV of us pushing and being called
EV=(.18)(4468)+(.82)(-1554)
EV=804.24-1274.28
EV=-470.04

Neutral EV when shoving where Fold equity=x

EV=0
0=-1390x+(1-x)(-470.04)
0=-1390x-470.04+470.04x
0=1860.04-470.04
470.04=1860.04x
x=25%

[/ QUOTE ]

MatthewRyan 11-12-2007 11:55 PM

Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
 
I also wouldnt give too much weight to what happened in one BU v blind steal situation


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