*** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Monday night football: NE @ BAL

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

line is NE-20.5 atm

they playing on the road, on monday night.

Baltimore probably sucks more than Phi but its gotta be close?

I'm surprised the line is this high, I may have to fade my beloved Pats 2 weeks in a row.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Baltimore probably sucks more than Phi but its gotta be close?

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Actually, it is not close at all. Philadelphia is an above average team, while Baltimore is one of the very worst teams in the NFL. Baltimore is more comparable to the Dolphins or the Jets. They are definitely one of the worst 7-8 teams in the NFL, and I would actually put them in the bottom 5.

They do have 4 wins (4-7), but they have had a very easy schedule. They are also 1-10 ATS. I believe that this team has earned a good reputation (elite defense, great team) in recent years, and that this is why the linesmakers were loathe to make reasonable lines for them. However, at this point everyone realizes how bad they are, and they are certainly not going to be given the benefit of the doubt against NE.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Baltimore a bottom 5 team? Not a chance. Their defense is good enough to prevent them from being that bad.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Baltimore a bottom 5 team? Not a chance. Their defense is good enough to prevent them from being that bad.

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This perception is why they are 1-10 ATS this year.

Their defense is not what it used to be. Ray Lewis is not what he used to be. Their offense is as bad as ever. They are 4-7 against one of the easiest schedules (thus far) in the NFL.

The next two weeks they play the Patriots and the Colts. After that they are at Miami. By then I expect most bettors to understand how bad they really are, and they could be dogs in that game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

prob bet on Miami vs Baltimore spread?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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prob bet on Miami vs Baltimore spread?

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Yes, please.

What were you thinking?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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prob bet on Miami vs Baltimore spread?

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Yes, please.

What were you thinking?

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upon further review, you might be right. I apologize, I just looked at the #'s and I can't believe how bad they really are

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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prob bet on Miami vs Baltimore spread?

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Yes, please.

What were you thinking?

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upon further review, you might be right. I apologize, I just looked at the #'s and I can't believe how bad they really are

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lol the ol' 11-minute evaluation

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

ok I was dumb, no need to rub it in [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Baltimore a bottom 5 team? Not a chance. Their defense is good enough to prevent them from being that bad.

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This perception is why they are 1-10 ATS this year.


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No, the perception that they are a good team is why they are 1-10 ATS. I said they weren't a bottom 5 team.

I've been saying since Week 4 that the Ravens are pretty bad. But which of these teams do you think are better than the Ravens.

49ers
Rams
Bears
Falcons
Panthers
Raiders
Jets
Dolphins
Chiefs

You have to pick five of those teams as being better than the Ravens.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Rams, Bears, Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Yeah, there's no way the Rams, Raiders and Panthers are better than the Ravens. I don't think the Bears are either, but that one is probably closer. I'll possibly give you the Chiefs.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Baltimore a bottom 5 team? Not a chance. Their defense is good enough to prevent them from being that bad.

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This perception is why they are 1-10 ATS this year.


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No, the perception that they are a good team is why they are 1-10 ATS. I said they weren't a bottom 5 team.

I've been saying since Week 4 that the Ravens are pretty bad. But which of these teams do you think are better than the Ravens.

49ers
Rams
Bears
Falcons
Panthers
Raiders
Jets
Dolphins
Chiefs

You have to pick five of those teams as being better than the Ravens.

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I said that they were one of the worst 8 teams in the NFL, and that personally I thought they were one of the 5 worst. The reason I said it like this is because I realize some people will never agree that they are bottom 5 right now.

So I'll look at your list and name SIX teams I think are better than the Ravens, and then you can disagree with me (seems like a pointless exercise).

Bears, Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons, Jets, Rams

Anyway, you shouldn't get hung up on the worst 5 in the NFL comment. I already realize that many will disagree with me. The major point was that Baltimore is terrible, and should not be compared to Philly. They should be compared to teams like the Rams, Panthers, Jets, Dolphins, or Falcons. They are a really bad team. They are not an average team, nor are they comparable to Philly.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

I got Pats -20.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

PO,

Fair enough, although I really enjoy debating about stuff like that. But I would love to see evidence that the Raiders, Falcons, Jets and Rams are better than the Ravens, because I don't see how anyone could possibly say that.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Post-Oak is right that Balt is one of the worst teams in the NFL right now...at least playing like one.

None-the-less, the 24.5 spread is still 3-8 right now, and over 21 isn't a whole lot better. It's a road game against a team with literally nothing going for it other than a hope to knock off an undefeated and then knock off the team that ruined the city's lives in the playoffs last year. They'll be up and playing hard these next two games. The crowd will also probably at least start with interest in the game.

They still suck, but if the line goes 22.5 I may bet Balt. 21.5 is iffy. I'm liking 22.5 a LOT better cause I think two FG is more realistic than a TD for Balt. I can easily see a 35-13 or 42-20 game here, certainly with a back-door late TD which the Ravens have been doing recently.

Between opening and where it's at now I'm not thrilled either way and think it's a no-play. 21.5 is where I start to lean Balt. Despite the super-close-call last weekend, the public is still pushing this line hard...probably too hard.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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None-the-less, the 24.5 spread is still 3-8 right now, and over 21 isn't a whole lot better.


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I'm still not sure how people can quote these facts and escape ridicule here. NE is 8-3 against a -20.5 spread. They have also outscored their opponents by an average of 23.4 points. There, I guess I just proved what a great play NE -20.5 is.

This amounts to an "angle", and is not worth talking about. You have to look at the two teams playing, the circumstances surrounding the game, the location, injuries, etc. I don't much care what NE did against some arbitrary number, especially when moving the number a couple of points can swing the record around completely.

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I am undecided on betting the spread again this week. However, the over(50.5) looks intriguing once again, but NE will have to cover this pretty much by themselves. Maybe that makes the under a decent play? But then again, NE is averaging over 40pts/game this year so it wouldn't take much from BAL to cover the 50.5.

NE totals have now gone over 50pts 8/11 games. The lowest so far was 44.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


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Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

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Yawn. Good thing your opinion is terrible. FO has them as 4th. They're still solid. But I don't think a matchup of a horrid offense and two top defenses screams out over as the preferred and obv play.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half. Imagine what Brady, Moss, and Welker will do. Not saying they'll match the 5 TDs in the half but still. Some of the "decent" offenses they've played just recently (last 4 games actually)--Pitt, Cinci, and and San Diego put up 91 combined. Ravens D isn't even in the top 10 let alone the top 5 imo

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Yawn. Good thing your opinion is terrible. FO has them as 4th. They're still solid. But I don't think a matchup of a horrid offense and two top defenses screams out over as the preferred and obv play.

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Yeah and just because FO has them 4th makes them REALLY a top 5 D[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Don't you think earlier games against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams(without Bulger and SJax at the time) have just a little to do with that?

If you wanna go by stats and stats only then NFL.com has them as the 3rd rushing D and 15th passing D. You think the Patriots are going to run the ball? So you have the #1 passing O up against the #15 passing D playing for what will probably be most of the day because the Ravens offense is garbage. Will that "Top D" have ANY gas left at all in the 4th, after being on the field all game?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

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Ok noted, and relying on a team to be 4th best in any given category when clearly that ranking is inflated due to a string of games against weak offenses is not circumstantial?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Yeah and just because FO has them 4th makes them REALLY a top 5 D[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Don't you think earlier games against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams(without Bulger and SJax at the time) have just a little to do with that?

If you wanna go by stats and stats only then NFL.com has them as the 3rd rushing D and 15th passing D. You think the Patriots are going to run the ball? So you have the #1 passing O up against the #15 passing D playing for what will probably be most of the day because the Ravens offense is garbage. Will that "Top D" have ANY gas left at all in the 4th, after being on the field all game?

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I think you should read up on DVOA, it's adjusted for the strength of opponents.

However, you have a point; according to FO BAL is 2nd against the run and 16th against the pass so Brady should be able to light them up

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

Here's an interesting thing that nobody has mentioned yet (probably because not many people believe in it like I do).

A handicapper who I respect has the Ravens in the bottom five of his power rankings (bottom four, actually). But he also quantifies home-field advantage for each team, instead of just blindly assigning three points to each home team.

Usually, Denver and KC enjoy the highest HFA numbers on this man's list. Baltimore is usually high on the list.

As of this week, Baltimore has the highest HFA ranking, according to him. Instead of the standard three points for home-ice, he gives Baltimore almost eight points for being at home.

(If you were wondering, he makes the Pats MINUS ONE for HFA, meaning he thinks they play better on the road than at home.)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Ravens D is extremely old and overrated. They gave up 5 TDs to Roethlisberger in one half.

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Someone didn't read the Baltimore injury report that week. Circumstantial and incomplete evidence is meaningless.

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Not only that, but the longest TD drive for Pitt in that game was 50 yards. Blaming a defense for its offense's inability to hold onto the ball and constantly giving the other team a short field to work with is unfair.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Here's an interesting thing that nobody has mentioned yet (probably because not many people believe in it like I do).

A handicapper who I respect has the Ravens in the bottom five of his power rankings (bottom four, actually). But he also quantifies home-field advantage for each team, instead of just blindly assigning three points to each home team.

Usually, Denver and KC enjoy the highest HFA numbers on this man's list. Baltimore is usually high on the list.

As of this week, Baltimore has the highest HFA ranking, according to him. Instead of the standard three points for home-ice, he gives Baltimore almost eight points for being at home.

(If you were wondering, he makes the Pats MINUS ONE for HFA, meaning he thinks they play better on the road than at home.)

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how does he quantify it? anything you can share?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

ytf, that's pretty interesting, but I have a hard time believing Baltimore is 8 points better at home. Is he using data from previous years or just from this year?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

wow, i'm getting pwned by history right now. jesus, the difference between home baltimore and away baltimore is ginormous.

From 2001-2006.

Baltimore (Home): 36-12, +7.79 MOV
Baltimore (Away): 19-29, -2.02 MOV

This isn't taking into account SOS, but god damn.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/03/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE @ BAL)***
 

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Umm... The 2nd and 4th best Ds in the league and Over is the clear play?!?!


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Where did I say the over was the CLEAR play?

I even said: "Maybe that makes the under a decent play?"