Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

This is part 4 of our first Play a Hand With the Masters. If you haven't already read, thought about, and posted in the pre-flop thread , flop thread , and turn thread you should do so first.

Here is the hand up until our next decision point:

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Hero raises to T4000. MJ folds. CO thinks for over a minute before calling.

River
Pot: T9950

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero has approximately 7,000 left and villain has him covered by quite a bit.

Villain checks. Action is on hero.

Concluding range of hands for the villain? Check or bet (and if so how much)?

Question not posed to our panel but I think is interesting: If you were the CO, what range of hands would you put our hero on based on how the hand has played out through the turn?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Lol, was it really the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

I don't see CO calling with many hands that fold this river. If he happened to be playing a draw this way (I doubt he would've been), we probably have him beat anyway, so there's little point in betting. I check and wish I played the hand more passively from the start.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Just check. You've still got a healthy stack and the only other real option is to push and you don't have enough folding equity without some strong physical read that villain is going to fold. Sometimes you play correctly and lose the pot thats the breaks.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I can't think of a single hand that calls the turn and folds the river to a push. I check behind here.

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Reluctantly check and live to play another hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Well, we've taken the very aggro route all the way here, so now that the pot is bloated, we may as well push; given this read, he folds more than 7/17 of the time, etc.

I just don't like the fact that we've made the pot big at every opportunity and now have no real choice but to make this play.

edit: I think his range starts with a queen and includes a lot of 2 pair and pair + jack hands, but your raise confused him and now the question is whether he puts you on a really badly played set often enough to fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I edited the original post to include an additional question at the bottom.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Well, like I said, I would have raised on the turn to T3500. I am done with the hand. I don't think you opponent has much FE. I think any range of hands, he will not fold to a push. I think he is more apt to call you if you push and I can't see betting anything less into this pot b.c. he will again call.

He has you extremely covered and I don't think he will release his hand.

Range of hands now:

A,A-10, K,Q-10, QQ,JJ,1010,99 possibly 88, J10, QJ.

The hand that makes the most sense to me is QJ or maybe J10. I think he was hoping to take it down with the turn bet but the raise made him uncomfortable. He called because he had a good draw (str8). I doubt he is on a busted flsuh draw. Even if he does have the two hands, I still don't think he folds. My money is on J10s

Stipe

The hands I would put the hero on is either a made set and playing it weakly or the flush draw since he came alive when the second club hit. Possibly a turned str8, but I doubt he would reraise on the turn with the nut str8.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I guess check. There is no way CO is laying down after that call. CO probably has a set though he could have played QJ or KQ this way. I would bet CO thought we had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

The way I figure it, if the villian was not going to fold to a river push, then it's fairly likely that villian would put hero in on the turn.

I think there are many pair plus draw hands that fold to the river push. The villian has 20,400 left, how are there not hands that villian would fold for 7 thousand more? I don't understand that logic.

If you raise the turn (which of course hero did), I think you have to push river.

Peace

Goodie

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

If CO has a set or a straight, he's not checking the River for fear you may check behind, so I eliminate those hands.

I think he started with 88 or JT, more likely JT because I don't think he limps preflop from the CO with 88.

He checked the flop after flopping top pair because you raised and he expected you to bet. Now on the turn, he's not crazy about the queen but feels he must bet. He calls the raise because he's got a "combination" hand, pair with straight draw.

He misses his straight on the River and checks. He's got to fear the Queen. You raised preflop with AJ, why couldn't you have AQ?

Now is the time to put the hammer down and fire that last bullet to convince him you have the queen. Push all-in.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

As much as I hate it, I push the river. We showed strength on the turn and should follow it up.
I would guess it looks like a set to the CO and we got nervous when the second club hit. That or AQ or a really, really badly played overpair.
I could easily see him taking a stab at the pot with a variety of hands/draws when the Qc hit. It looks like he hesitatingly called our raise. We did give him about 3-1 to call this. Him having us covered or not, if we push that's still a large portion of his chips.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

This is why i wanted to push the turn.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Also, is Sossman going to give his take on how he played the hand, his thought processes, and how he would have liked to play it differently if there is a way?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I more or less agree with this. With the pot odds you are getting, you need for villain to fold a better hand 30% of the time. All you need is 30%. I am not sure whether or not you get 30%.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Toro, you hit the nail on the head. You said everthing I was thinking but you said it better.

Peace

Goodie

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Forgetting for a sec the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet.
Under these circumstances what is the best amount to bet?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot under betting could convince CO we are trying getting the most out of our top pair. It may seem to go against the grain but does it?
Seeing a bet of say 3500 what is CO to think? The river certainly didn't help his hand. And since he showed hesitation on the turn he could be done.
Many times I've seen this playstyle go down in flames when their lack of subtlty has them aggressively push on the river. We can still win this without showing our hand.
No matter the outcome we haven't shown any particular skills playing this hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Well, the nice thing about raising such a small amount on the turn is that it makes it look like we already have a made hand. At this point, the stack sizes work in our favor. A bet of 4K or 5K would be standard nut peddling, but it would be very awkward to bet 5K and leave 2K behind. So going AI is a more attractive option. After putting 4600 in this pot, CO is still happy with his 20K. Taking a 7k hit here isn't going to make him happy if he holds K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think we have 100% FE over all hands of 2nd button or less. How about Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? Can he call if you push? Yes, but he'll only do so 20% of the time. I estimate 80% FE over TP?K. Now we get into the danger hands - two pair or better. I think our FE drops to 60% vs. Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He still lays this down quite often, but he is aware of the bluff possibility. We even have FE over trips. CO's range for our hand should be 99,TT,KJ, or a bluff (if we AI the river). Other hands that we can reasonably hold just don't bet here. AQ, KQ both check behind. So, unless he is just calling our bluff, CO should fold 33 here. Will he? Not as often as he should, and given other trip possibilities, I estimate FE over trips to be about 20%.

So, the problem here is that the CO knows we need the str8 or slow-played trips to be able to bet here. Other bets don't make sense (just check behind). The question is, will he call our bluff? Given the strong way we played the turn (a raise to 4K from 1500 instead of raising more) I think he will fold. In fact, I'm willing to "risk my tourney life" on it.

PULL THE TRIGGER!!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

CSC

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

interesting river.. i think we have a decent amount of FE at this point.. definitely enough to make a push profitable i'd say... we played this hand just like we flopped a set, or turned a straight and i think we can get villain to fold top pair and more here.. . He only needs to fold to the push like 44% of the time to be profitable...

of course if we check we can't lose anymore and can still vs some busted draws (78c is one of the very few i can think of that could possibly still be around)

--

I think i'm leaning towards pushing as of now...

gonna go and read the responses now.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting for a moment the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not but that's OK.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet. A push might be seen as suspiscious
under these circumstances. Why not try a different tack?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot we could underbet and try to convince CO that we are extracting a little more out of our top pair.


[/ QUOTE ]


Too risky that he'll call. CO has 21,400 left. Hero has 7000 left. It will take all of that to make it "hurt" enough to make CO fold. Any amount less is a wasted bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting for a moment the nearly unbroken string of poor decisions that have gotten
us to this point,we might salvage this disaster yet.
Can we get the CO to fold? He did hesitate before calling.
Keeping in mind his tight play can we put him on a missed draw? Probably not but that's OK.
You have represented AQ to the CO in most cases. Whatever he thinks there is only one
option left to us to win this a pot. We have to bet. A push might be seen as suspiscious
under these circumstances. Why not try a different tack?
Seeing 9k+ in the pot we could underbet and try to convince CO that we are trying to get the most out of our top pair. It may seem to go against the grain but does it?
Seeing a bet of say 3500 what is CO to think? The river certainly didn't help his hand. And since he showed hesitation on the turn he could be done.
Many times I've seen this playstyle go down in flames when their lack of subtlty has them aggressively push on the river. We can still win this without showing our hand.
No matter the outcome we haven't shown any particular skills playing this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

yea, any bet smaller than an allin will look too tempting to call.

and there are still a few drawing hands that he could have... 89c 78c.. maaaybe 67c?

Anyway, i really like how the hand played out.. i agree with every street pretty much.. (except i said raise to 500 PF, and 5k on the turn) but i think the 4k on the turn might be better, it lets us get a read on the opponent (he thought for a minunte before calling) and gives us considerably better FE on the river (7k into 9k, intead of 6k into 11k)

And after reading the first wave of responses, ive gotten really confident with my first impression to push.

So push!

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]??? THIS THREAD IS RIGGED

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Hero should check it down.

Hero is unlikely to have raised the turn so little with AQ giving villain 4:1 pot odds and higher implied odds especially with the flush and str8 draw on the board too.

I would check the str8 and any pair++ if I were villain because I'm thinking a whiffed str8/ flush is going to bluff at the pot.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

check and take it down, villian has 78 of clubs

lol no clue :[

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Honestly, I don't see how question 2 is necessary. How can you answer question 1 without first answering question 2?

I've said all along that our play looks exactly like a made straight. The only other hand that seems likely from our line is AQ. As Adanthar said, we'd have to be nuts to play a set or overpair this way, and I presume that at this point villain's read of us at least concludes that we're not that crazy.

Here's a hand villain could easily have called the turn with but might still lay down on the river: a set. Sure, he was only getting 2/1 vs 3.6/1 odds for filling up, but sets are hard to lay down, and he could have called based on some implied odds from the rest of our stack, and a lack of complete confidence in his read. His hesitation smells exactly like, "Damn, that bastard made his straight. Can I call?" Other possibilities are a pair with a jack (especially QJ), or something like 78c.

In the low-buyin tourneys I play, I check behind, because I can't credit those players with the ability to lay down a set, or even two pair, EVER. And TPTK, maybe once in a blue moon, but not often.

But here, in a 10k buyin, against a solid opponent, I'd be inclined to push. Villain is far from dead if he calls and loses, but he sure won't be happy. Of course, a more detailed read would come into play, but absent other information, I'm pulling the trigger.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Question not posed to our panel but I think is interesting: If you were the CO, what range of hands would you put our hero on based on how the hand has played out through the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
If it's not too late I really think you should pose this question to them. I have no idea as to what level the CO is thinking on... but our range on the turn has to be kind of small.

Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.

Anyway, I think it's hard to put us on exactly KJ... and you would think we would have bet a set on the flop. Does he think that J8 or Q9 are in our range? Firing away and putting our opponent to the test is certainly an option...it is certainly hard for him to call with one pair. I just think we get snapped off a lot more than we would like unless he bet a draw on the turn himself and missed. In which case our ace-high might actually be good.

I reluctantly check and save my chips for battle.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I haven't commented on any streets until this one, but I'm going to here because I haven't seen anyone mention this one. Based on the way we played this hand up until now, this is the easiest check in the world. The CO called the river bet fully intending to get all of your chips in the middle. The reason he checked is to induce a bluff from you as the 2d missed every possible draw out there. That said, not pushing the turn is terrible imo.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

With no stall on the Turn bet and a long decision on the call I put CO on QJ

I would put hero on AQ, KQs, TT, 99, AcJc, AcKc at this point.

CO still has a big enough stack to get away from this hand and with those 2 ranges a push will probably take it down.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and I think you are right. What is Bayes' theorem? I hear it mentioned all the time, but I haven't studied it in.... 8 years.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I think a lot of us are forgetting that CO open limped preflop. Is he really gonna do that with KT or QJ? Or QT or T9 or some other two pair hand? I just can't see him entering this pot without trying to steal with those hands.

I think that a set is probably the most likely holding for our villain. His check on the river is a little strange. But it could be to induce a bluff as Beef said.

So in my mind, the question is will he fold a set here? It would really depend on a more concrete read that the CO "has been playing pretty tight" and what our image is. I would think that at this big of a tournament with so many chips that the CO would be able to lay this down, so I would probably push. On party, this would be a definite check in my mind however.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I don't get this logic - "he limped in CO, so he must have a monster." Players often limp here hoping to steal the blinds simply by betting the flop after no one raises PF. KT, JT, Q9, are precisely the type of hands that limp here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and I think you are right. What is Bayes' theorem? I hear it mentioned all the time, but I haven't studied it in.... 8 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fantastic point, and deserves further discussion. Bayes' Theorem, stated as simply as I can, says that when there is a limited set of possible explanations for an event (call them E1, E2, . . . En), then the probability of any one (Ei) of them being true is:

Ei/(E1 + E2 . . . + En)

It's best understood by example. Sklansky's discussion from TOP is a good one. Say you have a horse race with 10 horses, only 3 of which were mares (Let's say horses 1, 2, and 3). Let's say you know that a mare won, but not which. We know horse 2 is a mare. What is the chance horse 2 won?

Normally the answer is 1/10, but we have more information, now: we know a mare won. There are 3 possible explanations for a mare winning: Horse 1 won, horse 2 won, or horse 3. So the probability that horse 2 won is:

.1/(.1 + .1 + .1) = 1/3

This idea may seem obvious from this example, but its application is not always intuitive. Let's look at the case before us.

Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

This is assuming your range is perfect, and it might be better to analyze this just one street at a time, as opposed to between PF and the final river decision. But the point is, this is a very powerful idea that merits further investigation.

Hope this helps.

Edit: I'm not sure if it's appropriate to use Harrington's 10% estimate in this manner, and I'm going on 3 hours of sleep. Don't worry so much about the above figure for now, it's the concept that's important. I'll firm up the math when I'm more coherent.



-AF

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this logic - "he limped in CO, so he must have a monster."

[/ QUOTE ] This is the argument I had on the turn. Too many people were convinced he had a monster.

The problem on the river is how little FE we have. He doesn't need a monster here to call. If he thought he was ahead on the turn we are not talking him out of it on the river for only 7000 more. He is calling with a set, top pair, two pair, or a straight. I guess he might muck J10 or K10(if he even has these holdings), but not always. I think we get a fold so few times here we are just stuck fighting for another day.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the idea... and it's not even that people do it intentionally... they simply bluff intuitively with some percentage but rarely adjust it properly to match the range of hands they wind up with in a situation. The horse analogy was a great one.

Sorry to thread hi-jack, but I do think it's interesting. I will PM the person who pointed out this concept to me and see if he wants to a) chime in b) start a new thread about it c) kill me for mentioning it in the first place [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-tpir

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, is Sossman going to give his take on how he played the hand, his thought processes, and how he would have liked to play it differently if there is a way?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes...at the end of this murder scene.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Are there any hands that the villain could play this way that you think he played properly? I personally don't love his line no matter what he has. Most likely he got caught in a funny spot with QJ or KQ, but doesn't appear to have set out a real plan in his mind. I figure the hands that he auto-folds (whiffed clubs, J9, etc) offset the hands that he auto-calls (funnily played T9 or KJ), so it's really this medium range that concerns us.

So... what it comes down to is: will he release these hands? Part of the problem is that I don't think even he knows for sure.

I had a hard time deciding on an answer for that, but then I remember that he only has to fold this what, 40% of the time? Our line is pretty strong, and the turn raise size was perfect in that it 1) looked like an honest raise for value, and 2) left us with enough ammo to fire a significant barrel on the river. So now I've jumped camps, and I figure let's light up our last shell and see if we can't blast Mr. Marginal out of our pot.

I want to see some more thoughts here though

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

For those of you advocating betting, what does everyone think about betting less than a push? At these high buy-in events would a weird play like that signal strength or weakness? If we come out betting 4k, what will CO think?

I assume it's the wrong play, but I think considering it would be nice.

I still like checking, btw.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Hmmmm, there's no way I was right about the CO now. He didn't have the set, otherwise he would have certainly reraised the turn.

Time to rethink:
He's a tight player.
He limp-called pf (which led me to believe he had a mid-pp)
Check the flop.
Bet the turn, which could have meant a number of things.
Thought and called a raise, which means he did not have a made hand to protect against the numerous draws, rather he had a weak hand or was on one of those draws himself.
The river is a brick.
There's nearly 10k in the middle.

I'm taking a stab at this pot. Bet 3,500$, trying to make it look like I have a hand and want a call.

If he has 77-88-TT, in line with my PF read, a tight player will probably muck it, unless he has a read on me.
if he has AJ himself or some other hand for a missed draw, I would expect a fold as well.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

If he had a hand that he was happy with why didn't he raise the turn with all thos e draws out there?
(I know there are reasons why he may not have but I still think we may be able to take this one).