Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

100$ MTT, 27 players left avarage stack 4500, blinds 200-100
this is a problem hand / situation I get into many times at this stage of the tournament.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">AQ-Hero (t2750)</font>
MP1 (t2065)
MP2 (t3845)
CO (t2235)
Button (t14108)
SB (t1560)
<font color="#C00000">BB (t1915)</font>

Preflop: AQ-Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">AQ-Hero raises to t2750</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t1715 (All-In).

Flop: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4765) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3930
{He called with 99}

Another hand in same stage of the tournament:
Im in the BB (200) all fold to the button who raises 400 more, SB folds, I have AQo. My stack is 3600 his is 2700.
Whats the right play here ? assuming i just played 10 hands there so no info on the BTN player.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

ATG,

1st hand your raise is too big. You have enough chips to raise 3x, see a flop and still have enough to play on. On Stars the antes are so small you are really risking a lot for a little...you will probably get looked up only by hands that beat you since the all in screams AK-AQ.

Hand 2 my default is to move in. You have a hand with good showdown value against someone who's range includes mediocre to terrible hands, especially since his stack is low.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

I hate the utg shove here. Ur not getting called by anything but JJ+ and AK. Ur risking 2700 to win 300... doesnt seem right to me. I'd make it 500-600 here and just see what happens. If i get reraised I'd probably fold. If someone flatcalls im shoving a lot of flops if i have a pair or two overs or draws etc. It really sucks playing this hand OOP, and I dont see any harm in folding it UTG either as ur just getting urself in trouble most of the time.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

You have way too many chis to be shoving, especially with no antes to steal. I would lead towards folding here because your just asking to get reraised, in which case you would have to fold.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

agreed, nothing wrong with a fold here UTG but raise to 500 has to be better than 14BB shove?

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.

.83 * 300 = 249
.17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56

So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here.

That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad.

Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call &gt; shove &gt;&gt; raise/fold &gt; fold.

Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

yeah hand 2 standard

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.

.83 * 300 = 249
.17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56

So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here.

That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad.

Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call &gt; shove &gt;&gt; raise/fold &gt; fold.

Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats ur cut off range for shoving here then?

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

I agree with Willd. Moreover, if you add pairs down to 88 to the calling range, I guess you're adding hands like AJ too ? So all in all, pushing seems significantly better than folding no matter the context. I also agree that some standard raise would be best.

And for hand 2, all-in of course, feets on the table [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

can we have a regular "ask annette" deal here weekly or something?

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

Remembering it's 7 handed not 9 handed I think I'm probably raise/calling or shoving 77+, AJs+, AQo+. AJo/66 are close. I'm also not raise/folding anything with this stack unless people had been too tight.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

raise/call &gt; shove &gt; fold &gt; raise/fold

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

hand 1 - raise/call all in, hand 2 - shove

you will always have a hand that seems to lose more than others but if its in the AA-99, AK-AJ range then its unfortunate and it'll be another hand next month

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

raise/call shove and be prepared to shove a bunch of flops if someone flat calls behind you. Open folding AQ with 14 BBs I think is criminal and raise/folding has to be worse.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

Shove both. Wiild's math is right on the push, and if you take the raise line and are called you're OOP with 1300 or more in the pot, 2250 or less behind. If you don't flop TP your only CB is a push, and if you do flop top pair you want to get all the money in with an SPR of &lt;2, so your money is going all in on the flop anyway (unless you plan to check/fold the flop when you miss) when villains have more info than they did preflop.

If youre going to check fold the flop 70% of the time that youre called, then your EV when you are called is very roughly .7 * -500 + .3 * (650 * .70 + 2750 * .3*.8 -2750 *.3 * .2) = -65.

You can play around with assumptions about what range of hands you get called and win with on the flop, and assumptions about how often villain bets into your check when you miss, but I doubt it will turn raising PF with a plan to fold when you miss into a +EV line, so youre counting on pf FE to make raising +EV anyway.

The range where raising PF has enough FE to make it positive vs the EV of just pushing has got to be extremely narrow or non-existent.

Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Remembering it's 7 handed not 9 handed I think I'm probably raise/calling or shoving 77+, AJs+, AQo+. AJo/66 are close. I'm also not raise/folding anything with this stack unless people had been too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah good point, missed that! Stick it in!