No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

Thanksgiving...that time of the year where you get together with family and lean on the good things. Many give thanks for health and happiness.

Las Vegas, Nevada?

There are no "gifts" from a the city of Sin.

Which leads me into my point. We may even call it this week's BSP Thread.

They (Vegas, Viva Las Vegas) are praying you get on that magicial Brett Favre with his boyhood charisma on Thanksgiving.

-3 1/2?

That's a steal, right? I mean the Packers are 9-1, they are developing a running game with Ryan Grant, they have a "top notch" front four, they have the most physical cornerbacks in the league and most importantly, and this is the cutest reason Brett Favre is "having fun again."

On the other side of the ring is your lovable Detroit Lions. They were looking like a 10 win team, even living up to the predictions their prophetic quarterback had laid upon the league in the offseason.

Last two weeks? Worst rushing performance in NFL history against the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah, the Arizona Cardinals.

Then they lost a ho-hum game to the Giants at home.

So why would anyone take the Lions?

Because Vegas is more prophetic than Jon Kitna.

(I wonder if they let him know already that he's gonna win the game on Turkey Day).

Lions + 3 1/2.

Do work,

Rob

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

Interesting thoughts for this game. Even if I don't bet on this game, I'll be interested to see the outcome

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Do work,


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Can you plz tell me what "do work" comes from? This is like the 4th separate time I've seen it used recently.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Can you plz tell me what "do work" comes from? This is like the 4th separate time I've seen it used recently.

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Rob & Big

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many people will be on home dog with winning record getting >3 pts, which makes it very doubtful it's a BSP this week. We'll see.

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I don't see it... DET is not nearly as good as everbody says. Through week 10 they have had the 6th easiest schedule this year. The games they won have been due to turnovers by their opponents; which DET has capitalized on. Yeah maybe DET has a good DEF, but they haven't played the best opponents.

They have played 2 teams with records > .500 TB / NYG and 4 opponents with .500 record. WAS / DEN / ARI / PHI.

DET is 2-4 vs. teams >= .500 teams - and if you look a little closer at the win vs. TB - and so called route of DEN -

DEN win : Denver's backup QB Ramsay - had two lost fumbles and an INT; a fumble and INT were returned for TDs. Rookie RB Young lost a fumble - and Denver penalized 84 yds.

TB win : Tampa Bay had a punt blocked, lost two fumbles (which the Lions turned into 14 points) and were penalized seven times for 60 yards.

Will GB turn it over 3 or 4 times, will they have punts and FGs blocked? GB hasn't looked like a team that will make these type of mistakes - but I'll admit that Favre has been known to turn it over from time to time.

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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Can you plz tell me what "do work" comes from? This is like the 4th separate time I've seen it used recently.

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Rob & Big

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Now I have two things to google instead of one [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Lori

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Urban dictionary (slightly NSFW language)

Seems people still have time for TV that isn't sport [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued.

NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5.

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Both marginal, but yes.

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Both marginal, but yes.

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When you say marginal, do you mean Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense are marginally better and worse than average, or that Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense is marginally better and worse than Detroit's running game and GB's rush defense respectively?

If it's the former, yes, I agree. If it's the latter, then I disagree.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

Former.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Both marginal, but yes.

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When you say marginal, do you mean Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense are marginally better and worse than average, or that Detroit's passing game and GB's passing defense is marginally better and worse than Detroit's running game and GB's rush defense respectively?

If it's the former, yes, I agree. If it's the latter, then I disagree.

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Given DET's lack of rushing attack - GB will be able to adjust and play against the pass better than #'s would indicate. That will ultimately come down to proper coaching - but GB def is capable of shutting down both the pass and the run.

Look at the DET vs. WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down DET.

GB has a much more capable offense than does WASH.

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Thremp,

Yes, definitely. But it's no longer the #20th best offense going up against the #9th best defense. Sure, GB still has the edge since Detroit won't throw every play, but they do matchup better than if GB had a killer pass defense.

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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In fact its the exact opposite. This stuff is WA on the interweb.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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This stuff is WA on the interweb.

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???

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued.

NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5.

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Okay...Green Bay is a good deal better than the New York Football Giants; I am being serious.

So why is the line basically the same?

Happy Thanksgiving from Las Vegas (Rake in that cash baby!)

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

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Against the second best passing offense in the NFL? I highly doubt it. And one week isn't going to drastically change how good a defense is after 10 weeks of football. The Redskins pass defense is leaps and bounds better than its run defense.

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.
Det is not adept at protecting Kitna. GB avg almost 3 sacks per game.
Lions pass for 220 YPG & 1.3 TD per game - GB give up 190 YPG & only 1.2 passing tds per game. These stats for GB while having the lead most of the season requiring teams to throw more.
Det has no consistent running game & GB very good against the run - not a viable option for Det either.

The 3 teams that had offensive success against GB this year utilized their TE - Det doesnt have 1.

I stand by my statement.

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

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Against the second best passing offense in the NFL? I highly doubt it. And one week isn't going to drastically change how good a defense is after 10 weeks of football. The Redskins pass defense is leaps and bounds better than its run defense.

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nfl.com

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?t...mp;d-447263-n=1

if you're using footballoutsiders.com for your stats - wait until the week 11 results come out.

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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because it's completely relevant and we wouldn't want relevant stats to get in the way of our ridiculous assertions.

(BTW, Washington is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt, a far better stat than what you were using.)

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued.

NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5.

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Okay...Green Bay is a good deal better than the New York Football Giants; I am being serious.

So why is the line basically the same?

Happy Thanksgiving from Las Vegas (Rake in that cash baby!)

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Why was TB -3 last week vs. ATL. A LOT of people were really big on ATL +3/3.5 last week - saying how they were home dogs... and they won two in a row... yada yada yada.

GB / DET - GB hasn't gotten any respect all year - and everybody has been on DET's nuts like they're the second coming...

GB has had depressed lines all year: 8-1-1 ATS.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.

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I would love to know where you're getting your information, because my information says that they are below average in defending the pass to wideouts, specifically #3 and #4 WRs. The Lions have a pretty deep WR corps.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.

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I would love to know where you're getting your information, because my information says that they are below average in defending the pass to wideouts, specifically #3 and #4 WRs. The Lions have a pretty deep WR corps.

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You can have a quick look at their game by game boxscores, or take the time to look at the play by play of each game.

In their past 5 games they have given up 1 TD pass to a wideout.

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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because it's completely relevant and we wouldn't want relevant stats to get in the way of our ridiculous assertions.

(BTW, Washington is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt, a far better stat than what you were using.)

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GB DEF is 3rd in the league for most sacks... your boy Kitna is #1 in the legue for most times sacked. Good luck to Kitna getting it off to his great WR core...

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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because it's completely relevant and we wouldn't want relevant stats to get in the way of our ridiculous assertions.

(BTW, Washington is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt, a far better stat than what you were using.)

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GB DEF is 3rd in the league for most sacks... your boy Kitna is #1 in the legue for most times sacked. Good luck to Kitna getting it off to his great WR core...

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Translation: I just got owned by superior logic so I'm going to reference something that has absolutely nothing to do with the current issue.

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Okay...Green Bay is a good deal better than the New York Football Giants; I am being serious.

So why is the line basically the same?

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Because they are not, because it's a short week, because GB will likely go off a pt to a half-pt more than NYG, because DET players are more used to playing on Thu afternoon than GB players.

Or, because Vegas is GIVING AWAY MONEY this week.

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.

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I would love to know where you're getting your information, because my information says that they are below average in defending the pass to wideouts, specifically #3 and #4 WRs. The Lions have a pretty deep WR corps.

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You can have a quick look at their game by game boxscores, or take the time to look at the play by play of each game.

In their past 5 games they have given up 1 TD pass to a wideout.

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In their last 5 games they have played some of the worst passing offenses in the league! Carolina had no Steve Smith, which is pretty much their entire pass offense. Minnesota...I mean, come on. Congrats on stopping Brooks Bollinger, guys. I'll give them SOME credit for holding Dwayne Bowe without a reception, but KC's ranked 27th in pass offense, so no large kudos there. Denver's got a decent pass offense. I think Washington's receivers' first TD reception was two weeks ago, so whoopee.

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I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because it's completely relevant and we wouldn't want relevant stats to get in the way of our ridiculous assertions.

(BTW, Washington is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt, a far better stat than what you were using.)

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GB DEF is 3rd in the league for most sacks... your boy Kitna is #1 in the legue for most times sacked. Good luck to Kitna getting it off to his great WR core...

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Translation: I just got owned by superior logic so I'm going to reference something that has absolutely nothing to do with the current issue.

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That's fkn silly man... you can't be serious about superior logic, can you? Any stat can be manipulated... That stat is so dependent upon a team's opponent, their offensive strategy, the quality of the opposing QB, the texture of the game.

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LOL, you're telling ME that any stat can be manipulated, when you tried to prove your point by using the most easily manipulated stat? Are you serious? Yards per attempt may be easily manipulated, but it's a far better stat than yards per game. The fact remains that Washington's pass defense >>> Washington's run defense, and if you continue to try to argue against that, you're going to look dumb.

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There, there, ladies, week 11 DVOA is out.

11 WAS PASS DVOA -5.1% RANK 9 RUSH DVOA -4.8% RANK 16

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There, there, ladies, week 11 DVOA is out.

11 WAS PASS DVOA -5.1% RANK 9 RUSH DVOA -4.8% RANK 16

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Numbers speak for themselves with respect to WAS rush vs. pass DEF...

Where is GB on that DEF list??

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There, there, ladies, week 11 DVOA is out.

11 WAS PASS DVOA -5.1% RANK 9 RUSH DVOA -4.8% RANK 16

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Numbers speak for themselves with respect to WAS rush vs. pass DEF...

Where is GB on that DEF list??

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9th overall, 15th pass, 4th rush

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the washington air defense is 22nd in the league, yielding an average 218 ypg. they gave up 251, 306 (brady), 226 (jets!!), and 293 (romo) in the last four games.

i'm not sure that their defense is worse against the run than the pass, but they're crap enough against the pass to say so without looking.

-c