Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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This stuff is WA on the interweb.

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???

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued.

NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5.

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Okay...Green Bay is a good deal better than the New York Football Giants; I am being serious.

So why is the line basically the same?

Happy Thanksgiving from Las Vegas (Rake in that cash baby!)

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

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Against the second best passing offense in the NFL? I highly doubt it. And one week isn't going to drastically change how good a defense is after 10 weeks of football. The Redskins pass defense is leaps and bounds better than its run defense.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Without going into detail I have Green Bay as a very strong play this week.

They are well positioned to exploit Detroit's weaknesses, whereas Detroit's singular offensive strength is offset by GB defensive strength.

I have GB with a decided edge on both sides of the football.

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Huh? Detroit's offensive strength is throwing the football, which is GB's defensive weakness.

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.
Det is not adept at protecting Kitna. GB avg almost 3 sacks per game.
Lions pass for 220 YPG & 1.3 TD per game - GB give up 190 YPG & only 1.2 passing tds per game. These stats for GB while having the lead most of the season requiring teams to throw more.
Det has no consistent running game & GB very good against the run - not a viable option for Det either.

The 3 teams that had offensive success against GB this year utilized their TE - Det doesnt have 1.

I stand by my statement.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Look at the WAS game - WAS is much better vs. the run than the pass - but with a capable DEF they were able to make the adjustment and shut down GB.

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This isn't even close to being true.

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It depends on whether you're looking at stats through week 10 or stats through week 11... After getting lit up for 300 yds / 4 passing TDs and only 1 INT on Sun - those week 10 stats are going to get adjusted down...

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Against the second best passing offense in the NFL? I highly doubt it. And one week isn't going to drastically change how good a defense is after 10 weeks of football. The Redskins pass defense is leaps and bounds better than its run defense.

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nfl.com

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?t...mp;d-447263-n=1

if you're using footballoutsiders.com for your stats - wait until the week 11 results come out.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

I forgot yards/game was the best indicator of a team's pass defense. Oh, Washington has the third most pass attempts against them of any team? Nah, we'll just leave that part out because it's completely relevant and we wouldn't want relevant stats to get in the way of our ridiculous assertions.

(BTW, Washington is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt, a far better stat than what you were using.)

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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digdeep, you're not picking them to win. You seem to be ignoring this.

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I think GB is undervalued at -3. I would rather buy the 1/2 or 1pt and play GB -2.5.

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In your last couple of posts you've talked about GB -3.5 being almost a sure thing and how Detroit is terrible and they won't win. I'm just pointing out that the line is +3.5 for the home team who isn't "horrible."

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Good point - I was really trying to point out that I think DET is overrated - and that GB -3 / 3.5 is undervalued.

NYG was -3 vs. DET last Sunday - I think GB is better than NYG... therefore would have expected GB to be more like -5.

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Okay...Green Bay is a good deal better than the New York Football Giants; I am being serious.

So why is the line basically the same?

Happy Thanksgiving from Las Vegas (Rake in that cash baby!)

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Why was TB -3 last week vs. ATL. A LOT of people were really big on ATL +3/3.5 last week - saying how they were home dogs... and they won two in a row... yada yada yada.

GB / DET - GB hasn't gotten any respect all year - and everybody has been on DET's nuts like they're the second coming...

GB has had depressed lines all year: 8-1-1 ATS.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.

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I would love to know where you're getting your information, because my information says that they are below average in defending the pass to wideouts, specifically #3 and #4 WRs. The Lions have a pretty deep WR corps.

Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas
 

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Dtroit's ONLY offensive strength is throwing the fb to their WR. GB has great def backfield & has been able to control the opposition's wideouts all year.

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I would love to know where you're getting your information, because my information says that they are below average in defending the pass to wideouts, specifically #3 and #4 WRs. The Lions have a pretty deep WR corps.

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You can have a quick look at their game by game boxscores, or take the time to look at the play by play of each game.

In their past 5 games they have given up 1 TD pass to a wideout.