AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

I was dealt pocket aces OOP, and the preflop was capped with 4 players seeing the flop.

Flop came 9 T J clubs.

can't remember if I bet out first, but 2 players folded, and the flop was capped between me and one villian who had showed aggression on preflop (I think he's the only one who re-raised me).

Turn came a rag, and it went 3-bets.

River came another rag, and I just checked/call, given the aggro he showed on the turn too.

He turned over JJ, he had a set.

So I was wondering how much pot equity my AA has against this kinda flop, and the possible range vilian might had. I was expecting that I would still have >50%, but to my surprise....
<font color="brown">
Board: Tc Jc 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.818% 28.32% 02.50% 12617 1112.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 69.182% 66.68% 02.50% 29708 1112.50 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo, KQo }
</font>
so AA is no good!

If I had changed '9c' of the flop cards to an 8c, outcome would be:
<font color="brown">
Board: Tc Jc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.131% 51.63% 02.50% 23003 1112.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 45.869% 43.37% 02.50% 19322 1112.50 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo, KQo }
</font>
If the '9c' is a rag, outcome would be:
<font color="brown">
Board: Tc Jc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.527% 67.34% 01.19% 30001 528.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 31.473% 30.29% 01.19% 13493 528.00 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo, KQo }

</font>
OK, this might not be very startling to many of you, but it is a revelation to me, and I'll keep in mind if such a scenario comes up. And I'm typing out my thoughts like what sushi advocated in his 'Make Serious Posts' post.

So this stove result seems kinda counter intuitive to me. Anyone has any more of such startling discoveries?

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

did you have ace clubs

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

Yeah, I don't know that I like 3betting that turn after a flop cap on that super-coordinated board and two cards that complete a set in the range that you put villain on. When he caps the flop, we should probably give him some credit.

You have an overpair, but there are a lot of hands that beat you. No need to go nuts here, in my opinion.

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
did you have ace clubs

[/ QUOTE ]

AdAh it says in the stoves.

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

ah ty

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

AA is the best possible STARTING hand in hold 'em, not the best hand. Don't confuse the two.

The further you go in a family pot, the less good it becomes. Your equity is further reduced by the coordination of the board and the ability of your opponents.

Re: AA\'s pot equity on a very dangerous flop
 

Your range is a bit off on the flop. He had to 3-Bet PF and once he raises you on that flop you can narrow down his range.