UFC 74 thread
 

It's probably time to get another thread going on UFC 74.

The last one got ridiculous with stupid side conversations about steriods and supplements, and very little discussion about sports betting.

So back to the sports betting...

These lines are a combination of different books, please to be sharing other, better lines.

Randy Couture +110
Gabriel Gonzaga -130

Georges St. Pierre -210
Josh Koscheck +190

Joe Stevenson -240
Kurt Pellegrino +210

Clay Guida -115
Marcus Aurelio -115

Renato "Babalu" Sobral -260
David Heath +200

Roger Huerta -500
Alberto Crane +350

Kendall Grove -230
Patrick Cote +180

Frank Mir -185
Antoni Hardonk +145

Your thoughts?

Edit: lines changed a little after i line shopped a bit. No arbs, but much less juice on the main events.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

Long time lurker here but I'll give some of my thoughts...

[ QUOTE ]


Randy Couture +110
Gabriel Gonzaga -130



[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't see how Randy is going to win this. Although i hate betting against The Natural, he really has very little value to me at +110. He was extremely impressive against Sylvia but he now has to face someone who is a competant and agressive striker, as well as someone who will not just be looking for a tie up on the ground. I don't think there's any way that Randy wins unless Gabriel gets continually taken down and Randy wins a 5 round lay and pray decision, which I'm not sure is possible with Gabriel's JJ. I like Gonzaga early.

[ QUOTE ]
Georges St. Pierre -210
Josh Koscheck +190

[/ QUOTE ]

I like GSP in this fight but I'm not sure about the number. I think if I can get Kos at >+200, I'll have to book it. Although you have to think GSP will come out very strong in an effort to get a shot at his WW belt, you can't discredit Kos' wrestling. While I would be surprised if it happened, I could see Kos winning a 3 round lay and pray decision. Kos' strikes have improved to a point where he is no longer completely outmatched on the feet, which will be vital to him winning a 3 round decision. I'm still on the fence at the current number but depending on where the line moves, I will most likely be taking Kos.

That's it for now, I'll research a little more on the undercard but as of now I like Aurelio -115 and Hardonk +140.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

Preliminarily, I like Gonzaga, Joe Daddy, and Grove. Will maybe elaborate later.

And even though I despise him, I'm kinda leaning towards Koscheck. Though I'd love it if someone could convince me that GSP will KO Kos like he did Hughes. Mir looks tempting given his huge advantage on the ground, but he's such a wild card I'm hesitant.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

I dunno about Kos.

GSP has a very good history against wrestlers. Hughes, Sherk, etc. have had a hard time against GSP. Is Kos realistically that much better of a wrestler than these guys...? I think this line is pretty accurate, at first glance.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

imo Josh Koscheck fought a great stand up fight agiant mr. undefeated. Who is now 19 and ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNE

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

Kendall Grove -230
Patrick Cote +180

I think these are the best odds on that card so far. Patrick did farelly well in the Ultimate Fighter and I think he's forsure bigger and stronger than Kendall Grove. Also, he trains with GSP who just came off a humiliating loss so you can only imagine how dedicated he will be to dominating his next fight. And Patrick is his size, and could very well have been his sparring partner in training.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
imo Josh Koscheck fought a great stand up fight agiant mr. undefeated. Who is now 19 and ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNE

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if Kos chooses to stand and trade with GSP, every sane bettor in the world is booking GSP all night long. Kos standing doesnt have a prayer. His gameplan is going to be GnP for sure.

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

If by bigger you mean seven inches shorter with a huge reach disadvantage, then yes, he's bigger [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

You're on the button that Cote is likely physically stronger. You've got to make up for that height by having less muscle mass than someone shorter.

Speaking purely off the cuff, Cote has never impressed me, not even his work in TKO.

-P

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
imo Josh Koscheck fought a great stand up fight agiant mr. undefeated. Who is now 19 and ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNE

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to completely throw out that fight due to Sanchez's massive Staph infection. Something like that level of incapacitation for one party completely clouds any potential value you might pull from a handicapping perspective for either fighter.

-P

Re: UFC 74 thread
 

One fight I think is being overlooked right now is Joe Daddy vs. Batman -- right now thats the line I'm looking at the closest anyways.

Batman has some really solid skills and imo JS is being overrated a bit due to the quick finish to his last two fights. JS has been submitted before, albeit eight years ago.

-P