Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

I guess I'm a lot worse then I thought, or I ran freakishly bad. (Probably both) I was a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100 for about 3-4 months over about 30-35khands. (wasn't able to play as much as I wanted)

I went on a bad run at the end of my NL100 days and took a long break and cashed out most of my roll, I was rolled for NL50 but decided to move down to NL25 and fix my leaks, I considered myself a winning player but knew I had tons to learn so I figured why not just play NL25 and fix my leaks.

Only to be down $600 on FTP at NL25 (25-26BI) over 7k hands (-19PTBB/100) (half of my roll after cashing out) and basically demoralized myself completely in online poker. I am still a consistent winner @ live poker over the last 2-3 years winning 5-6k at 25, 50 and 100NL.

I am cashing out my final $550 and going to stick to live play for quite a while I think, and probably wait around until Party.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

obv increase leaks at higher stakes

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

nl25 is harder than nl100 on ftp, but 26 bi downswing, lol

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Obviously not a downswing. Just you sucking at poker.
[ ] swongs are one thing

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously not a downswing. Just you sucking at poker.
[ ] swongs are one thing

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres no way this isnt a downswing, even if I was a pretty bad player, being -16PTBB/100 or whatever I am over 7k hands is just absurd, theres no way this isnt way below standard variance even if I am a losing player.
I play 25/20/3.5 with W$SD of 45%.

But thanks for the awesome response? I'm assuming your grinding out NL25 or NL50?

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

In BBV, we dont move down to fix leaks, we move up to chase losses. What you waiting for?
[x] choo choo

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

Desperately thinking about it. We'll see how steamed I remain.

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

you clearly suck

Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100 for about 3-4 months over about 30-35khands.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, but do you have a track record which is actually strong evidence that you are a winning player at some level?

For a fixed interval of 32k hands, 0 is close to the edge of your 95% confidence interval if your observed result is 5-6 PTBB/100. It depends on your standard deviation/100. After n*100 hands, your 95% confidence interval is roughly observed +- 2 (SD per 100)/sqrt(n).

However, this wasn't your complete record. You also went on a downswing at NL 100 afterwards. You can't just pick your winning stretches, and declare that those represent your true win rate. A breakeven player or marginal loser is very likely to be able to find some pretty long upswings.