NLTRN $10 Small overpair facing PSB on paired river...
 

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1658215

Second hand.

First hand he limped and we checked to the river. The board rolled out AK7A7 and he minbet the river and I called and he showed J4o for the split.

So my question is what should I do in this spot? How often is this the 3 or a straight or a set? One thing that kinda made me call was that if he hit two pair with 86 or something then I just resucked on him so that's another way I could be ahead but really idk....Do people call down then pot-donk a 3 like this?

Re: NLTRN $10 Small overpair facing PSB on paired river...
 

The river bet looks really opportunistic - like he saw the 3 and suddenly decided he could represent it.

That said, people do all kinds of ridiculous things. And don't forget set possibilities.

The psychology of call-call-bet with a big hand is easy to see - "I don't want to be cuz he might fold"-"I don't want to bet cuz he might fold"-"oh [censored], this is the river, what if he checks behind?"

Hands that behave this way: 88-22, A3, 34, 68, 57, other 8's.

To account for the suspiciousness of the bet (bluffs here will usually be smaller), I've added some other 3's to the equity calc:

Board: 8d 4c 3h 6h 3c

Equity
41.94% ( 9c9s )
58.06% ( 88-22, A3, 34, 35, 36, 68, 57, A8 )

You need 33.3% to call, so I think this is probably a good call.

That said, I would probably fold this because I'm usually pretty cowardly the first couple of hands.

Re: NLTRN $10 Small overpair facing PSB on paired river...
 

You should bet bigger on the flop IMO. I'd call it down as played but it is a really unusual hand. I figure that 2 pair and maybe even some dumb floated overs should make up more than 33% of his range at this level.

Re: NLTRN $10 Small overpair facing PSB on paired river...
 

What does betting bigger on the flop accomplish? And how much bigger?

Is it to make overcards pay to draw? To induce a bluff-shove/raise (which I could see if it wasn't the second hand)

We're at 3/4 pot already. Say you overbet the flop here (150). A reasonable opponent is only going to call down TPGK or better. It seems that 2/3-3/4 will be able to extract more from A4 type hands.

I'm really confused now.

Re: NLTRN $10 Small overpair facing PSB on paired river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
What does betting bigger on the flop accomplish? And how much bigger?

Is it to make overcards pay to draw? To induce a bluff-shove/raise (which I could see if it wasn't the second hand)

We're at 3/4 pot already. Say you overbet the flop here (150). A reasonable opponent is only going to call down TPGK or better. It seems that 2/3-3/4 will be able to extract more from A4 type hands.

I'm really confused now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread the hand, the flop bet is fine. I was thinking it was 90 preflop for a 1/2 PSB on the flop.

I'd still call the river.