Survivor China
 

Anyone know where I can wager on who wins? (Other than Bodog, since I can't register there)

Re: Survivor China
 

All lines were taken down a while ago due to suspicious betting activity.

Re: Survivor China
 

Great, just when I got my hands on the spoilers.

Re: Survivor China
 

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Great, just when I got my hands on the spoilers.

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how are there spoilers? the final show is broadcasted live

Re: Survivor China
 

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Great, just when I got my hands on the spoilers.

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how are there spoilers? the final show is broadcasted live

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top 3 were spoiled a while ago

all were from the same initial tribe, that bet dropped from -110 when i bet it to -600 in under a day

2 of the final 3 are female, so the female at -120 bet had some value

and the three that were rumored to be in final 3 were 10/1, 11/1, 12/1

i bet on all 3. the 12/1 was guy so he'd cover the female bet if he lost

of course the "spoilers" could be wrong and go broke, but last 4 seasons have been accurate for me as far as betting.

plus bodog pulled the lines and claimed that cbs employees were betting the same three people, so could be good bet.

Re: Survivor China
 

Seems likely so far that the spoilers were good. And from watching, it looks like the one girl is dead money, the other will probably win, and the guy has an outside shot, depending on what people base their final voting decision on.

Re: Survivor China
 

For some reason, goofs like to post the Survivor spoilers for other people to bet, therefore putting in jeopardy the very wagers they are putting money on. Perhaps they are new to betting, ignorant, or just don't know that information = money, but in any event, that is the reason the bets might not even be honored and survivor betting will probably cease in perpetuity.

So yeah, nice work bozos.

Re: Survivor China
 

Can't disagree as I was complaining about this type of thing last time 'round but some bookies who used to turn a blind eye now have probably realized it ain't worth losing so much money if only for 'publicity purposes' (c'mon...how much publicity can a sportsbook get!?).

It probably is the beginning of the end of the good times for Survivor bettors who were living a charmed life as it was.

I hope Todd doesn't win though. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

I'm surprised sportsbooks don't stick to stuff that is in real-time like Dancing With The Stars and American Idol where there is some modicum of actual competition and not pre-arranged results/where the outcome is already known.

Re: Survivor China
 

yeah I'm guessing these odds will not go back up for this season. I'm also hoping Todd doesn't win, because I maxed out on Amanda at 15/1 and Courtney at 13/1 on bodog. I couldn't figure out who the male was with them in the final 3 though, so I bet on Todd, J-R, and Erik but not the max. If Amanda can take this I'm winning $690.

Re: Survivor China
 

FWIW, JRB was playing 300/600 HU at Bellagio last night.

Re: Survivor China
 

he gets voted off next show

Re: Survivor China
 

Hmmm. Over at Bodog, the prop for will a male/female win the show is still up. The odds are 'Male +150, Female -200'.

No value here unless Todd really is the chosen one.

Re: Survivor China
 

Now although they are far from being my favourite sportsbook I'd probably consider them one of the sharpest in terms of how they set the odds and take action on 'entertainment betting', Bodog now have the line as 'Male +170, Female -250'.

Seems a little strange when Todd's been primped as the one most likeliest to win.

Re: Survivor China
 

Bodog sharp? They are horrible. They simply use ridiculous juice and ultra-low limits to not get raped.

I haven't researched Survivor, so won't comment on actual most likely to win, but Bodog's odds appear set right along the lines of the spoilers. If 2 females and 1 male all equally likely to win, then the line would be -200 female and +200 male. Bodog then takes absurd juice, and you end up with the resulting -250 female and +170 male.

Re: Survivor China
 

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...I'd probably consider them one of the sharpest in terms of how they set the odds and take action on 'entertainment betting'

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Bodog sharp? They are horrible. They simply use ridiculous juice and ultra-low limits to not get raped.

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I don't disagree. I think we've said the same thing but you were more direct and forthright with your opinion while I almost gave a politician's answer.

Re: Survivor China
 

I've got $700 coming to me from this season guarenteed so I'm not going to touch the male/female winner bet but I'll give my opinion or lack-there-of actually, if it helps anyone.

The final 3 is spoiled as Todd, Amanda, and Courtney. Right away just dismiss Courtney, she is the Cassandra of this season who just gets drug along and will be lucky to get even 1 vote. So basically its 1 on 1 Todd vs. Amanda. At those odds you'd think male is the way to bet, but if it was even money I'd actually go with Amanda. Todd is going to backstab almost everyone and that might make them give the title to Amanda. Also a big fish in the survivor spoiler world has reported that Amanda wins, I'm not sure I'd trust him 100% because I thought the votes are sealed until the live finale but I wouldn't be against Amanda at this point.

Re: Survivor China
 

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I've got $700 coming to me from this season guarenteed

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hate to be the one to break this to you but all bets may be no actioned

Re: Survivor China
 

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I've got $700 coming to me from this season guarenteed

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hate to be the one to break this to you but all bets may be no actioned

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I sure hope not. I'll fight it for sure because I got my bet in when Amanda and Todd still had 15/1 odds which was days, maybe even a full week before the public started hammering them.

Re: Survivor China
 

Odds for male/female over at Bodog now both at -120.

Re: Survivor China
 

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Odds for male/female over at Bodog now both at -120.

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i find that odd

if the spoilers are true, you can really rule out courtney and it would come down to amanda/todd

todd has a couple enemies on the jury already and I think he'd make more to ge to the final three, so amanda should win

but the female line went from -200 to -120

Re: Survivor China
 

But they may feel Todd has played the best game, and personally, I don't think he's made as many enemies as you think.

I've been feeling like it's a tossup between those two for a while now, but I can't quite figure it out.