Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

Hi guys,

Note: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged. I am winner at the tables, so I am not some newb who claims online poker is rigged after a few losing session.

I have been playing online for 2+ years now and I DO NOT believe it's rigged. Yes, I get sucked out like crazy at times and yes it does suck a whole lot, but I understand that over a large sample of hands you will see your fair share of bad beats and dish out your fair share as well.

Okay, now getting back to "odd" thing. The time frame setting is between the night of Sept.25th and the early mornings of Sept.26th. I was running 11+1 Sng's and a few hrs of 6max 2/4 Limit during that time frame.

Now, combined with the limit cash and Sng's, i was dealt pocket 22 roughly 8 times (too lazy to go dig up the exact numbers right now) but the main point is, I hit a set with 22's 6 times out the 7 or 8 times I was dealt it.

With the times when I see my 22's to the river I have hit a set. The other 1 or 2 times, I either folded preflop or didn't go to the river.

Now, isn't the chances of hitting a set like very very low? Like under 10%? What are chances someone hits a set 6 out 7/8 within a roughly 12 hour time period??????

Okay, so after that day I was talking to some buddies and did some thinking. Basically we just attribute this to the fact that when you play alot of hands of poker, you will see stuff like this. Alright, so cool, lets move on.

NOW, when I was playing in a limit tourney tonight (Sept.26th to Sept.27th) on FTP (24+2 Limit MTT.) I hit board trips (dealt KJ -> JJx flop) or a set with JJ every time!

I noticed this trend as I was playing. Near the late stages of the tourney, I raised UTG with JJ, we cap on the flop with me all-in on the 3rd or 4th bet. Opponent shows AA. So obviously I am screaming at my laptop, Jack, Jack, JACK!!!

And guess what? A Jack came on the river....

Now I am guessing some of you flamers are gonna probably make fun of me and tell me I am BS'ing.

Everything I've wrote is 100% true and of course I have all the Hand History in PokerOffice and in my FT folder.

If you guys don't believe me, I will show you the evidence.

BUT, thats not the important thing...to all the mathematically smart people in the forums, what are the chances of stuff like this happening????

In conclusion though, I still don't think online poker is rigged in anyway. My explanation for this is "[censored] happens". There lottery winners every year and winning the lottery is like 0.000232349823% chance. So if you look at the overall scheme of things, I guess its not THAT odd. But what I do find odd is the fact that i hit a set with those hands in SUCH A SHORT PERIOD of time.

I am playing tomorrow as well, and I update you guys if I am hitting crazy sets again. Oh and this "odd" thing is pretty cool for my bankroll too, so I aint complaining lol.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

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Now, isn't the chances of hitting a set like very very low? Like under 10%?

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13%.

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What are chances someone hits a set 6 out 7/8 within a roughly 12 hour time period??????

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Not sure what relevance the time has. Anyway, I'll leave the odds calculation to someone better versed in statistics than me.

This seems like a post better suited for BBV...and while the odds are undoubtedly low, this isn't that amazing an occurence.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

I once had two straight flushes within an hour of each other--freak occurrences happen fairly regularly especially when dealing with thousands and thousands of hands.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

If my math is right (and trust me, it's very very possible it isn't) then for every time 1 million times you're dealt a series 7 or 8 pocket 22s this would happen like 5 or 6 times. While from one point of view that's not very likely at all, from another it's like 300x more likely than hitting a lottery jackpot.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

I don't know the odds but it will be miniscule. The thing is though, the fact there are odds for it means it will happen. At some stage in the future it will happen 5 nights in a row - maybe not in our lifetime but it will happen.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

Now, if this happens again in my sessions today.....then I am going to have to start attributing it more than just straight up luck...must indicate some kind of glitch in the random generator.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

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Hi guys,

Note: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged. I am winner at the tables, so I am not some newb who claims online poker is rigged after a few losing session.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was the only line I needed to read to realize your post is garbage. Also, you are not a winning player, so quit kidding yourself.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Hi guys,

Note: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged. I am winner at the tables, so I am not some newb who claims online poker is rigged after a few losing session.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was the only line I needed to read to realize your post is garbage. Also, you are not a winning player, so quit kidding yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just can't beat a mindless flame delivered with no evidence whatsoever as to it's validity. I'm convinced there are quite a few posters on this forums with 90% of their posts made up of crap like this.

It's a great formula really, read one line of a post, flame em, increase size of e penis, move on and hey presto a nice fat postcount with a overinflated ego to match.

The OP should learn about the 'spot the gorilla' concept btw.
Also see infinite monkeys at typewriters writing complete works of Shakespere etc.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hi guys,

Note: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged. I am winner at the tables, so I am not some newb who claims online poker is rigged after a few losing session.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was the only line I needed to read to realize your post is garbage. Also, you are not a winning player, so quit kidding yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just can't beat a mindless flame delivered with no evidence whatsoever as to it's validity. I'm convinced there are quite a few posters on this forums with 90% of their posts made up of crap like this.

It's a great formula really, read one line of a post, flame em, increase size of e penis, move on and hey presto a nice fat postcount with a overinflated ego to match.

The OP should learn about the 'spot the gorilla' concept btw.
Also see infinite monkeys at typewriters writing complete works of Shakespere etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, so how much money are you down online? You sound like one of those bitter, online is rigged guys.

Also, BOOOOOYAHHHHHH, 914 bitches.

Re: Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????
 

The probability of this specific occurance happening is low.

The probability of this specific occurance happening to anyone playing is higher.

The probability of a similarly rare occurance happening to anyone playing is 100%.