25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

25-50 at Hollywood Park... VERY passive table preflop besides me... however, people are betting pretty light on the flop (i.e. betting into a preflop raiser with mid or bottom pair)and taking other weird lines.

UTG raises, 1 caller, I 3 bet on button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], blinds fold, CALL CALL

UTG is pretty predicable but the caller is GOD-AWFUL. He seems to alway bet "weird" and his calls are even weirder. I've seen the caller bet total air and call with total air several times, I think he might be high.

Flop

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check Check - I bet - Call Call

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, BET, I raise.

UTG dumps, caller thinks for a while, then calls.

River is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian checks... I bet.


Thoughts on all streets?

BTW, I thought I was greater than 50/50 that the villian folds to my raise on the turn (I've already seen him donk bet - fold several times on different streets).

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

Hate the river bet. Rest is fine.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

Didn't we just go through this before? Call the turn. Fold river unimproved. Why do you keep insisting on raising the turn on a draw?

Check behind river as played.

Garland

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't we just go through this before? Call the turn. Fold river unimproved. Why do you keep insisting on raising the turn on a draw?

Check behind river as played.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with just calling the turn.

We did actually go through this about a week or two ago... however, I found over the course of about 3 months worth of play at Hollywood Park... I was giving away a TON of value by not raising my big draws + over-cards on the turn...

In this situation I have at least 12 NUT outs with maybe as many as 18 outs... these outs, + fold equity, + the fact that I may be ahead... I feel a raise is required.

It seems like the new trendy play (at least in these parts), is to call a bet on the flop then lead the turn with total air and/or some type of BS gutshot straight draw...

I know this doesn't seem like something a "passive" player would do, but I've been seeing it more and more over about the last 3 months even from weaker players.

That being said... I totally agree I should have checked behind on the river due to the fact that AK high beats all other BS draws this guy could have had.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

I think raising the turn is mandatory in this spot for the reasons you stated. Not raising the turn is borderline criminal. First of all you still have a pretty big hand on the turn, and your raise can knock out UTG with some hands that could possibly win a showdown. On the river I would check as it seems villian isn't going to fold a pair here. If the player was the type who might possibly fold a pair I would bet. Also If villian donked river I would call after raising turn.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

You also should factor in the equity loss you get by folding out the orginial raiser. He is unlikely to call for 2 bets but may peel for one.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

turn raise is a spew
river bet is a spew

the turn raise is bad because in a passive game it ensures that you are going to only get one bet in on the river when you actually make your hand. i rather get 3 bets in when you are way ahead and 2 bets (or perhaps 1 if you elect to fold the river) when you are a dog/slight dog to his range rather than 3 bets regardless . you overestimate your folding equity. the additional equity gained by raising is not sufficient to justify a raise because you aren't really going to be folding better hands, just hands that have a moderate number of outs against you.

river bet is bad because it is not a value bet and there aren't a reasonable amount of better hands that you are folding after the villian calls the turn raise.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
He is unlikely to call for 2 bets

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds good to me. I want to get it HU with the donk bettor since PFR prob has us beaten and we may be ahead of donk bettor and win it UI.
Again, I'm just going on the read given in the OP.

Basically, everything until river was good. On the other hand, I might just consider just calling preflop, but usually 3 bet is good.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

[ QUOTE ]
the caller is GOD-AWFUL. He seems to alway bet "weird" and his calls are even weirder.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wasn't a black guy with sort of a weird sounding foreign accent was it?
I played with him in the 15/30 and he moved over to the 25. I wanted to follow him, because he played hilariously. Like, his first hand att he table, he coldcalls my UTG raise with J4o, and raises the flop with no pair no draw. Superlol. Another time he raised river on a 4 straight board and called my 3 bet with the worst hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I remember thinking that he was almost definitely high.

If this is the case, super duper NH and good read, but still don't bet river.

Re: 25-50 HP... AK and stuck
 

[ QUOTE ]

This wasn't a black guy with sort of a weird sounding foreign accent was it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Big, tall, fattish, often sporting Roca wear and the like? I sat with a guy who looked / played like this a few times at HP & Commerce during my stint in LA.