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-   -   .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=510687)

greggg230 09-27-2007 04:25 PM

.25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
No specific reads on villain. Limp/re-raise pre-draw is a monster 95% of the time in my experience.

My plan post-draw was to bet if checked to (since check/call is how a person would usually play small flushes and straights) and call but hate it if he leads out.

He might put me on a straight or very small flush pre-draw (since I flat-called pre-draw) and be betting for value with a J/Q-high flush. Obviously, he's going to be leading out with an A-high flush, full house, quads, or straight flush, too.

I'm getting a little better than 2:1. Am I going to be good here often enough to justify a call?

PokerStars No Limit 5 Card Draw .25/.50

6-handed

Villain: $25 (UTG)
Hero: $32.21 (UTG+1)

Dealt to Hero [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

Villain calls $0.50 (pot $1.25)
Hero raises $1.50 to $2.00 (pot $3.25)
4 folds
Villain raises $4.50 to $6.50 (pot $9.25)
Hero calls $4.50 (pot $13.75)

Villain stands pat.
Hero stands pat.

Villain bets $11.50 (pot $25.25)
Hero ????

Big Limpin 09-27-2007 05:48 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
It's close, so even if you get it wrong, you probably made a more or less EV neutral decision. I'd lean call. Expect to win less than half though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

It appears you really respect villain's limpRR ? I agree its usually a monster, but the cute cuddly kind of monster (trips) that you pray your opponents to have, when you have a flush. You gotta 4 bet him here...if you stack predraw and he gots your flush beat, so be it, no shame in that. You are surely crushing his range, but will have your action killed postdraw since you have to pat. Stopping at $6.50, you'll probably only get action when he boats-up, or has big flush himself.

In any case, the fact that you aren't insta-calling this villain's postdraw bet shows that you probably won't have trouble beating these players long term [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Murakawa 09-28-2007 09:17 AM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
I'd have to see how he plays other time. If he has a boat might be limp reraise a little less, hoping to get you to come along, or does it looks like he wants to be done with the hand as soon as possible? At this level I don't think you can fold. But, no you're not crazy.

Idolatrous 09-28-2007 01:40 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
You really think that at a .25/.50 NL game at stars that players are going to not bet a small straight? I can't even tell you how many times at $20/$40 stakes players have bet into pats after drawing 3 to trips.

To give a player you know nothing about credit for better than a King high flush and folding to him at this limit is bizarre. I wouldn't even hesitate calling him here.

BBQbowser 09-29-2007 03:34 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
You are good enough to call. You don't even have to be AHEAD of the median pat range because of the odds you're being laid not to mention factoring in his bluffing frequency. His range is slightly different post draw because he is still betting, luckily he gave you a great price. Bite the bullet.

Seb86 09-29-2007 05:37 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
Why in hell did you flat call pre draw ? did you want him to turn trips into FH for free ?

K high flush is good enough you beat 90% of the flush and all the straigh. If he has a FH or a A high flush be it.

greggg230 10-01-2007 04:47 AM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
Thanks for the responses, all.

I agree with the criticisms about the pre-draw flat call. I was playing like a nit. Definitely missed value against his range there.

BBQbowser 10-01-2007 04:22 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
K high flush is good enough you beat 90% of the flush a

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. KT high flush is quite close to the median flush (see M. Gritter)

MarkGritter 10-01-2007 05:54 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
Correct, the median flush is KJT42 (!) but I certainly can't take credit for discovering it.

http://www.rgpfaq.com/ranking-why-flushes.html

A KT-flush is still an above-average pat hand because there are so many more straights than flushes. (About 2x.) Out of the ~20,000 pat hands possible it's somewhere around 7000th.

LearnedfromTV 10-01-2007 06:07 PM

Re: .25/.50 NL 5CD - Am I crazy for thinking of folding here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Correct, the median flush is KJT42 (!) but I certainly can't take credit for discovering it.

http://www.rgpfaq.com/ranking-why-flushes.html

A KT-flush is still an above-average pat hand because there are so many more straights than full house+. (About 2x.) Out of the ~20,000 pat hands possible it's somewhere around 7000th.

[/ QUOTE ]


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