Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

Villain is unremarkable. He's had about the same stack since I sat about 25 hands ago, as in he's not rebuying. Talk to me about cb'ing that flop. And river might be of interest. Comments welcome.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $334.20
Hero (BTN): $272.30
SB: $117.35
BB: $176.75
UTG: $119.80
MP: $95.80

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, SB folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40</font>, BB calls $30

River: ($95) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero...

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I doubt you take him off a chop on the river and he could be trapping with a T. I like a check behind, but I also cbet the flop a decent amount of the time. We don't have much showdown value, and we just wanna take the pot down before a worse card comes on the turn that either gives him a better hand or lets him bluff us off the best hand.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I generally b/3bai this flop. I'd only bet the river when on tilt (which is 25% of the time).

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

It all looks fine/if you check behind.

Don't cbet man/you'll get blown off the hand.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Don't cbet man/you'll get blown off the hand.

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Lol what "hand"?

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I generally b/3bai this flop.

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Puke, villain is going to be way too strong and our hand is not going to have nearly enough equity to shove when he raises this flop.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I generally b/3bai this flop.

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I don't like this at all/with the ignorant end of the draw.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I generally b/3bai this flop.

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Puke, villain is going to be way too strong and our hand is not going to have nearly enough equity to shove when he raises this flop.

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You don't think he's raising with hands like clubs/tens? Or do you think they'll call?

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I generally b/3bai this flop.

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Puke, villain is going to be way too strong and our hand is not going to have nearly enough equity to shove when he raises this flop.

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You don't think he's raising with hands like clubs/tens? Or do you think they'll call?

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Clubs are ahead/splitting with us, I doubt he raises with a bare 10.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Don't cbet man/you'll get blown off the hand.

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Lol what "hand"?

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A pair and a draw/better than nothin at all.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I think you played it perfect and I check river, unless villain is on the nit side.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

But when we get "blown off our hand" by an unremarkable villain, he has us pretty much toast every time. A dream situation is we catch a non-club 5 on the turn against villain's 55 without a club. We're just never in great shape but we can take the pot down enough of a time to make a cbet before villain catches up.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I generally b/3bai this flop.

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Puke, villain is going to be way too strong and our hand is not going to have nearly enough equity to shove when he raises this flop.

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You don't think he's raising with hands like clubs/tens? Or do you think they'll call?

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My impression is he wouldn't c/r and then fold anything. He's not a maniac or anything. And anything he'd c/r with is ahead of us by a little or a lot. Just one of those passive guys that tries to make a hand and show it down in various random ways.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I don't like trying to push him off chop either as this is a good spot to trap w/ a ten.

I usually cbet this OOP, but check in position.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

check the river, you can't rep a T after flop and turn action, villain could have one though.

Flop is a check, your equity vs his hands that continues isn't fantastic plus you have showdown value. turn is good obv.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

Without being results oriented, I think this is a c-bet on the flop in position here all day long. Granted, I'm C-betting in position all day long here on pretty much any flop. As played, the turn and river are very standard. His range on the turn would seem like some sort of set (missed c/r on flop), or him butchering any 10. His river play kind of rules the 10 out though if he is any type of competent. I am not sure if you could get him off the chop, but I would say against an unknown you should just check behind and either take half the pot or own him for playing his hand horrible and getting zero value from it.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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But when we get "blown off our hand" by an unremarkable villain, he has us pretty much toast every time. A dream situation is we catch a non-club 5 on the turn against villain's 55 without a club. We're just never in great shape but we can take the pot down enough of a time to make a cbet before villain catches up.

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He's almost always got a piece/your betting must cease

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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He flat-called from the blind/you are often behind

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

You may not like it, but you better learn to love it. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


(i.e. Check behind the river)

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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He flat-called from the blind/you are often behind

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Cute - but can you say you are narrowing his range to a set or 10-10+? If so, lol.

I would rather see myself in a situation deciding whether or not to fire on the turn after getting called on the flop than this. That is a much easier decision to make imo.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

perfect as played assuming u check riv behind...

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.72-0.1*47.5 = $38.95

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the marginal(ish) using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis. Picking the figures more logically would be useful. Any thoughts?

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.8-0.1*47.5 = $42.75

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the same using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis espcially as I didn't pick the numbers specifically to make them turn out equal. Any thoughts?

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2 things - he has a ten more than 10% of the time AND you aren't taking into account that when he bets half pot as you said, he is getting repopped MORE than the percent of times his opponent has a 10. This might sound counter intuitive, but I have seen stupid [censored] like this before when some idiot thinks its going to be a split.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

If he bets here he's gonna get paid off, assuming he has the ten, so there's no need to check as most of the time he's just passing up value on his hand. This is why I think there's a slim chance of him having a ten.

The model assumes that when he repopps he's always got it and we fold - which happens ten percent of the time. I can see that this is a rediculous assumption as sometimes he'll repop with fa.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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Sorry but this is completely wrong. This is one of the worst flops imaginable in terms of hitting a cold-callers range.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I don't see any reason to bet that flop. I'd much rather check it and call a lot of turn bets.

River, bleh, I just check. I have such bad luck trying to push guys off a chop, and this doesn't seem like a great spot for it. If he's thinking at all, this is a hard spot to represent a T.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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He flat-called from the blind/you are often behind

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Cute - but can you say you are narrowing his range to a set or 10-10+? If so, lol.

I would rather see myself in a situation deciding whether or not to fire on the turn after getting called on the flop than this. That is a much easier decision to make imo.

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Tonnes of suited connectors (that made 2 pair hands, or a pair and draw), 9T, 8T, pair+fd.

I like the way the hand was played.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

check the flop cuz you have value but not enough to bet. you do have enough to call a turn bet especially with your straight outs.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

Played perfect if u checked behind for all the reaons above.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

nh, now check (i think a check if he had a ten would be sexy)

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

c-bet please.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I c-bet and check behind for obvious reasons.

Also bet/3-betting this flop is huge spew imo.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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c-bet please.

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C-betting is terrible here, man. Here's a stove of random [censored] that doesn't even include club draws:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,230 games 0.003 secs 25,410,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.385% 31.61% 02.77% 24100 2111.50 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 65.615% 62.85% 02.77% 47907 2111.50 { 55+, A9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s }



In fact, you barely even beat a COMPLETELY RANDOM hand:

Board: 7h 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.073% 56.60% 02.47% 605734 26461.50 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 40.927% 38.45% 02.47% 411533 26461.50 { random }




C-betting here is just lighting money on fire. This hits a cold-calling range really hard.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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c-bet please.

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C-betting is terrible here, man. Here's a stove of random [censored] that doesn't even include club draws:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,230 games 0.003 secs 25,410,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.385% 31.61% 02.77% 24100 2111.50 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 65.615% 62.85% 02.77% 47907 2111.50 { 55+, A9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s }


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Where the hell did you get this range? what about 22-44? What about offsuit broadways? What about Ax hands? wtf?

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

what shpanko said...

You narrowed the flop range ridiculously and we STILL have good equity...Im not a math guy so can somebody calculate what % of the time villain would have to fold to a flop bet USING BILBO'S RANGE for our c-bet to be profitable. Use $12 as a c-bet amount.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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c-bet please.

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C-betting is terrible here, man. Here's a stove of random [censored] that doesn't even include club draws:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,230 games 0.003 secs 25,410,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.385% 31.61% 02.77% 24100 2111.50 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 65.615% 62.85% 02.77% 47907 2111.50 { 55+, A9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s }


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Where the hell did you get this range? what about 22-44? What about offsuit broadways? What about Ax hands? wtf?

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Dude, that's a CALLING range. Notice that it is a humongous portion of his total range, so don't get me started at how batting is +EV because he folds so much.

I see your "WTF"? and raise you a much bigger "WTF".

You don't need to mindlessly Cbet every [censored] pot.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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what shpanko said...

You narrowed the flop range ridiculously and we STILL have good equity...Im not a math guy so can somebody calculate what % of the time villain would have to fold to a flop bet USING BILBO'S RANGE for our c-bet to be profitable. Use $12 as a c-bet amount.

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Again, that's a calling range. Villain's probably only folding 22-55 and unsuited big cards. This is a small percentage of his range.

Cmon, THINK. He cold-called. What percentage of his range is big cards with no draw and 22-55? Cause that's all he's folding. I guarantee it isn't the 35% of his range that you need for a bet to be +EV.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

You think unsuited broadway cards are not a big part of an "unremarkable"'s range? I guess I disagree there.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

That is a horrible calling range for a random 200NL fish.