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-   -   $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=541565)

Todd Terry 11-09-2007 10:55 AM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
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I don't get it, given the information psyduck provided, how's this trivial?

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I guess not trivial, but semi automatic...it's a pretty small bet and you'll catch him with air often enough to make it profitable. If not, like Todd said, it's worth it for the information.

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You're getting 5.1:1, you have to be good just 15% of the time for it to be +cEV -- in that spot, I'll call if I have any showdown value whatsoever, always. People who love to play random crap almost never fold a pair on the flop to a c-bet, especially one that was less than 1/2 the pot, so I think he could have 77, any 6, 55, possibly even 33-22. The river bet appears to be an obvious blocking bet, which means he doesn't like his hand very much and doesn't want to call a bet of 4-5K, so I think there's actually a pretty good chance we're good here. The description of the flop action seems like he called only after he saw the other guy was folding, which could mean he was pretty weak. Plus, there's an epidemic of microbet bluffing going on in live tourneys, I don't know if it has infected Mr. Wong, but it's an additional reason to call because he could show up here with 75, 53.

ianisakson 11-09-2007 01:38 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
I think a call is good, his range looks a lot like 99-77, 55. You can't really put him on air after your c-bet into a 3 way flop and he calls OOP. He either has that small pair or T9, T8 with a pretty small chance of the random air.

WarDekar 11-09-2007 01:42 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
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I think a call is good, his range looks a lot like 99-77, 55. You can't really put him on air after your c-bet into a 3 way flop and he calls OOP. He either has that small pair or T9, T8 with a pretty small chance of the random air.

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Uh... Bluff raise FTW?


I wrote up something for this last night but was drunk and apparently forgot to post it. I feel like this is a spot you need to decide what he's betting this thin with - a lot of times players will do this as a value-bet and fold to any raise, in which case, bluff raise FTW?


Look at it this way, say he's bluffing the required 15% or w/e for you to call. OK great but what's the other 85% of his range? Weak ass hands that he's not calling a raise with, so why take the pot 15% of the time if you can take it 100% of the time?


FTR I'm not saying you should def. bluff raise here, but if his range is as quoted above you should be.

I really don't see myself folding here so it's either call or bluff raise depending on opponent.

celticslegend 11-09-2007 03:01 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
Bluff raising is a horrible idea imo, as you are repping basically nothing and from what I hear about Danny Wong, while he is far too loose he is a good hand reader and a tough player, so I think he will pick you off here a ton. I think this is really close and it really depends a lot on Danny Wong, I feel like you should really never be good here if he is a good player like everyone says he is, but 5-1 odds are tough to pass up. I would probably make a crying call just for info and the chance that he may be doing something dumb, but I don't think folding or calling can either be really bad in this spot, I feel like raising is a really bad idea.

edit: now that I think about it I think folding is better than calling, I think he has 10x here almost always, pretty much the only hand that makes sense imo.

ianisakson 11-09-2007 03:14 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
this is a good river to bluff raise, but as celtic mentioned if he is a sicko and a good hand reader he'll pick you off once in a while. His bet does look 100% like he's going to fold to a raise.

celticslegend 11-09-2007 03:29 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
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this is a good river to bluff raise, but as celtic mentioned if he is a sicko and a good hand reader he'll pick you off once in a while. His bet does look 100% like he's going to fold to a raise.

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how is this a good river to bluff raise? what hand is hero supposed to show up with a4? Maybe this is a good sized river bet to raise but it is certainly not a good river card to raise.

WarDekar 11-09-2007 03:35 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
We could be raising a ton of hands for value here as well, no?

WarDekar 11-09-2007 03:46 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
How are you playing QQ+?


Or even Js

And what the hell does he have that calls PF and check/calls flop, then mini-bets river that can withstand a raise, and the line we took to get there?

As I said I don't know him or have any kind of read, and this isn't an online donkament, but I love bluff-raising rivers if I have a read someone is trying to value-bet a medium strength hand and is capable of bet/folding river.

Diamond Lie 11-09-2007 04:42 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
Pretty sure we arent checking the turn with QQ+ lol

LerkEr 11-09-2007 05:00 PM

Re: $10k Foxwoods - Small underpair multiway hand vs Danny Wong
 
D BARREL THAT [censored]


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