uh-oh
 

live 100 game
SB = very strong player. tight, aggressive. never seen him get out of line/do anything stupid.

MP = regular in the game who probably wins around $60-70/hr, but is prone to tilt and being an idiot.

Both likely view me as a strong player.

1 limper, MP raises, SB calls, I call in the BB with black 33, limper calls.

Flop 4 ways for 8SB: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

checks to MP who bets, SB calls, I c/r, limper folds, MP 3bets, SB deliberates and then calls, I cap, both call.

turn 3 ways for 10BB: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet, MP calls but looks unhappy, SB calls.

river 3 ways for 13BB: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet, MP tanks and after 5 seconds calls, SB now c/rs, my play?

Re: uh-oh
 

looks like Qc Jc is the only hand that beats you.
I dunno what other hands he can have but getting 16:1 I couldnt fold anything here, and never a set.

Re: uh-oh
 

[ QUOTE ]
looks like Qc Jc is the only hand that beats you.
I dunno what other hands he can have but getting 16:1 I couldnt fold anything here, and never a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, would you fold KT?

Re: uh-oh
 

Dude I am a .5/1$ onlinegrinderdonk so I have learned never to laydown anything to 1 bet, especialy when a backdoor flush is your only real concern.
But getting this odds and beating the 3rd player in the pot for sure, I think if you just call for metagame it cant be that bad at all(of course his most likely hand is QcJc since it makes absoloute sence, but how sure can you be that you fold if you are only need to be good ~ 7%).
With KT I would also call, but the hand would be diffrent I guess since Mps most likely hand is KT,K3 or some other strange 2pair.

Re: uh-oh
 

MP has been telegraphing the whole hand that he hates calling to the river, but he's going to do it, dammit.

If the SB is making a move with QJ (no flush) it's really really strong against you, because what else could he have but QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? You have to fold. So, good bluff . . . except, no, because MP is not going to fold the river getting 16:1 and being last to act.

From his point of view, the chance you fold KT or a set is probably in the 25% range, and the chance that Mr. I'm Calling Down With AK Dammit folds is 25%. 1/16 . . . so his bluff works 1/16 times. Probably not -EV, maybe those percentages are a little low, but because he could actually be ahead with his QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you aren't getting odds to call.

I'm kidding, of course. I could never fold on the river getting 16:1 when I have a set. But mathematically, given MP is obviously a stubborn ass, it seems like a fold is in order.

Re: uh-oh
 

id fold the way you described sb but wouldnt fault someone for calling. i know that i have bluffed in this spot before so even though i dont give most people credit for being as moronic and spazzy as i am there is always that possibility i guess. my answer might change if i knew who the players were but probably not.

Re: uh-oh
 

you cant do anything but call here

Re: uh-oh
 

Tough spot.

Since you describe SB as a very strong player, this seems like a reasonable time to do some game theory analysis.

What's your river range? I'd guess that after this action, you probably hold

{QJc(1), 33(3), KQo(9), KT(9)}

Villain, a strong player, is getting 17:2 to bluff raise, so between you and the 3rd player you have to call him 90% of the time to stop him from exploiting you by bluff-raising missed straight draws.

IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you.

Returning to your hand range... 33 is in the top 18% of the narrow hand range I gave for you. As such, this is a clear call from a game theory POV. I'd say you should call KT as well, fold KQ.


So, back to the hand... we can't fold by default. Can we make an exploitable fold to take advantage of this player's passive tendencies? Let's recheck that description "very strong player. tight, aggressive." nope. Doesn't seem like a good guy to fold to.

make the crying call.
-Eric

PS. Although I'd expect SB to raise the turn with KT, it doesn't seem like an impossible holding here. Admittedly, it would be very tricky to wait for the river to check-raise, but given that you have represented a made hand, and the 3rd guy looks like he wants to fold, waiting until the river to trap the 3rd guy for an extra bet feels like a thought a very strong player might have.

Re: uh-oh
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot.

IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me.

Re: uh-oh
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot.

IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we'll see in the results! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

From a game theory POV, your read is important though... if 3rd guy will always call, then we can fold 33 unexploitably. Given that our hand is in the top echelon of our possible holdings though, we have to quite sure the 3rd guy is calling before we can think about folding.

I don't think we can be that sure, so I call.

-eric